| Round 18 COLLINGWOOD v NORTH MELBOURNE Time, Place, TV: Friday July 22, 7:50pm Etihad 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 13 Max 17 Chance of rain 70%: 5-10mm Wind: WNW 31kph Betting: Collingwood $2.20 North Melbourne $1.68 |
The Magpies' unlikely finals chances took a massive hit last week with a tough loss to Adelaide. They were definitely gallant in defeat, but it has left the Magpies in a position where they have to basically win every game from here on in to make the finals. The Magpies are three games behind the Roos on the ladder and any slim finals hopes will be dashed with a loss this week.
On the other hand, the Kangaroos face the real prospect of dropping out of the eight all together if they can't win this Friday night. With a number of teams beginning to close in, North Melbourne needs to turn its form around very quickly if it is to hold onto its finals position.
In many regards, North Melbourne's season is reminiscent of Collingwood's 2015 campaign. The Magpies had made the most of a good early season draw but had a few heartbreaking losses to quality sides around the midway point of the season. As injuries mounted, Collingwood's season completely fell to pieces and it was never able to recover.
This is quite similar to North Melbourne's 2016 season. After a flying start, the Kangaroos had a few hard fought losses which took a toll on the side's momentum. A number of players sustained injuries during this period, and their season has quickly fallen away. They also have a very difficult draw on the run home, so if the Kangaroos are unable to win this week, then missing finals is a real possibility.
Although Friday night is a Collingwood home game, it is actually the first time the Magpies have played at Etihad Stadium all season. On the other hand, the Kangaroos play their tenth match at this venue for the year. Having said that, the Kangaroos have lost their previous three games at the ground.
It should be a really fierce battle against two sides with a lot to prove.
Recent History
These sides last met way back in round nine last year, where the Magpies booted nine goals in the third quarter to overcome a 39 point half-time deficit. It was Dane Swan and Jamie Elliott who polled the three and two votes respectively, and both are currently sidelined by injury. Swan was on fire with 32 disposals and two goals, while Elliott lit up the MCG with five. Steele Sidebottom was also very prominent with 31 disposals. For North Melbourne, Ben Cunnington polled one vote with 25 possessions and eight tackles.
At the Selection Table
Alex Fasolo will have his shoulder tested again this week after he failed to recover in time for last week's clash. If he passes, he will be a welcome addition back to the side. The VFL Magpies continue to fire as well and a number of names will again push for selection. Marley Williams, Tyson Goldsack, Rupert Wills, Tom Phillips, Tim Broomhead, Adam Oxley and Jack Frost, in particular, are all doing everything they can to break into the senior side.
North Melbourne's injury list is quite extensive at the moment, and it is unlikely to regain any front-line players this week. In particular, Shaun Higgins, Ben Jacobs, Luke McDonald, Kayne Turner, Sam Wright and Mason Wood will all be missing for quite some time. Majak Daw and Trent Dumont will press for selection again this week, while Robbie Nahas will also be considered as he booted three goals when these sides last met. The bigger issue for North Melbourne will be re-igniting a forward line which has been out of form in recent weeks. Veteran Drew Petrie has received a lot of criticism for his quiet game last week, while Jarrad Waite has also struggled for touch. Todd Goldstein has also been battling injury and is far from his best.
Focus on Collingwood
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| Robbie Tarrant and James Aish collide during Collingwood's win over North Melbourne in the second match of the 2016 NAB Challenge in Wagga Wagga. |
There is a lot Collingwood needs to work on this week if it is going to challenge North. Firstly, the Magpies were yet again smashed in centre clearances 17 to seven. The Magpies are ranked last in the competition in this area, and it cost them majorly against Adelaide. The other issue was turnovers. Adelaide scored 11 of its goals from turnovers in comparison to the Magpies who only scored seven. Under a closed roof in perfect conditions, there will be no excuses for sloppy ball movement.
The Magpies have won three of the past four meetings against North Melbourne, and also a NAB Challenge battle earlier this year.
There is no disputing the effort Collingwood brought to the game last week against Adelaide. The Crows got off to a flying start, booting the first five goals, but the Magpies were able to steady and kept the game very even thereafter. It is the second week in a row that Collingwood has allowed its opponent a fast start, and this trend has to be extinguished on Friday night. The Kangaroos are lacking confidence, so the Magpies need to put the foot down early to prevent their opponent from regaining their touch.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Brayden Maynard – The 19 year old was thrown the frightening task of nullifying Eddie Betts last weekend. Although Betts still managed to boot three goals, Maynard did a remarkable job and limited him to only 10 disposals. Maynard has taken huge strides this year and has really cemented himself as a key pillar of Collingwood's defence. The challenges continue, as he will likely take the match-up against the dangerous Lindsay Thomas this week.
Ben Sinclair – After a promising game against Greater Western Sydney the week prior, Sinclair stood up to be one of Collingwood's best against Adelaide last round. He had 23 disposals running off half back and also defended really well. Importantly, though, he was one of Collingwood's only defenders who was willing to take the game on at all costs and take some risks. At times, Collingwood looked stagnant across half back, and it was up to Sinclair to try and break the game open. As a result, he set up a number of scoring opportunities. He is another player who has really cemented his position in the squad, which is credit to him considering the number of injuries he faced earlier in the year.
James Aish – It has been a difficult first year for Aish, as he has battled at times for form and confidence. After a horror 2015 season at Brisbane, it was always going to take a bit of time to re-adjust to a new team and build himself up again. But last week was his best match for the season, with 22 disposals and a quality goal. He was demoted to the VFL earlier in the year, where he put a real focus onto winning the contested ball. This move has seemingly paid dividends, as his form at AFL level has gradually improved over the last month. He seems to have cemented his spot in the short-term, and I think there are exciting times ahead for Aish as he continues to improve.
Focus on North Melbourne
The Kangaroos will face a lot of scrutiny this week as they risk becoming the first team in history to win the opening nine games and still miss the finals. For all the criticism, North Melbourne should still safely make finals and will be a difficult opponent considering how much experience is in the side. If it can regain a number of key players ahead of September, then it can still be a force.
But if the Kangaroos can't turn the tide around quickly, then season 2016 could slip away very quickly. On paper, they still have a very strong side despite the injuries. But the form of some of the key players is concerning. Daniel Wells was below his best last week and struggled to break a tag, while Drew Petrie's quiet form continued as well. The Kangaroos were beaten in clearances 38-28 and walloped in centre clearances 20-9. These statistics are completely unexpected for a side which possesses tough on-ballers such and Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow and Jack Ziebell.
North Melbourne likes playing three key forwards, but not a single goal was registered by Drew Petrie and Jarrad Waite last week, and both only had 11 disposals. Fortunately, Ben Brown and Lindsay Thomas have been in decent form. The selection panel will think long and hard about replacing a tall forward, but will also be hesitant to change the formula which saw the Kangaroos win the opening nine games.
Player Focus – North Melbourne
Todd Goldstein – The competition's best ruckman has been well down on form over the past month and looks to be battling with a knee problem. He isn't covering the ground as well as he usually does, and was exploited last week by Jackson Trengove. He faces a real competitive young ruckman in Brodie Grundy this week who has taken the scalps of Shane Mumford and Sam Jacobs in the previous two rounds. Grundy is in career best form right now and is registering midfielder-like numbers. With the season on the line, the Roos will do everything they can to get Goldstein back to full fitness, but may need to consider resting him soon if necessary. Goldstein is a proud player though, and the Magpies need to be very cautious of him.
Ryan Clarke – After a dominant year at VFL level, Clarke has finally broken into the senior side and has wasted no time in making his mark. He was a highly rated junior, and North Melbourne would have been ecstatic to pick him up at No. 31 in the draft. In just his second game last week, Clarke was one of his side's best players, picking up 22 disposals and providing some real life to the midfield. He is one to watch this week.
Robbie Tarrant – Many have had Robbie Tarrant in their All-Australian sides this year, which is a huge credit to him after he has battled so many injury issues in the past. He has strung 16 games together this season and has been a real rock in defence. He'll likely get the job on Travis Cloke, who was again quite strong last week against Adelaide. Cloke has a good record against North Melbourne, and this match-up could be one of the more vital ones on the ground.
The Wrap Up
It's been a long time since these sides have played on a Friday night, and I'm expecting a bumper crowd in to see an enthralling contest.
Even though Collingwood's finals chances are extremely unlikely now, the Magpies will be treating this game as a final and will be throwing everything into it. With a strong side to choose from, expect a very fired up Collingwood with plenty of confidence after some strong recent form.
I'm also expecting a revved up North Melbourne. It's not quite desperation stakes yet, but if the Kangaroos lose this match then the risk of dropping out of the finals becomes a serious possibility, especially given the tough draw to come.
At its best, North Melbourne can play Etihad brilliantly as it moves the ball quickly and has the firepower up forward to put the scores on the board. But when it's off its game, North Melbourne can look a bit slow all over the field. After last week's match, I'm expecting North Melbourne to put a real focus on clearances, as it was outmuscled in this area against Port Adelaide. The Magpies have also been really poor in this area, so the midfield battle becomes extremely important. Collingwood cannot allow North Melbourne to get its running game going, and also needs to move the ball quicker and more accurately itself.
Based purely on recent form, the Magpies have every right to go into this game confident. North Melbourne was disappointing last week and faces a very dangerous opponent. It's a real toss of the coin match, and one I think that will go right down to the wire.
Also, a big congratulations to 'Boomer' Harvey, who equals the all-time games record this weekend.
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