Two of the heavyweight contenders for the flag go head-to-head in what could conceivably be a prelude to that one day in September…
| Collingwood v Hawthorn Sunday, April 14 3.15pm MCG 7mate / Fox Sports Weather: Min 16 Max 21 Chance of rain 60%: 5-10mm Wind 21k SSW Betting: Collingwood $2.22 Hawthorn $1.66 |
Hawthorn suffered yet another close loss to the Cats in their season opener but followed that up with a thumping of the Eagles, at Subi, in stifling conditions, with a six day break to remind everyone why they started the season as flag favourites.
Collingwood has had two hard fought victories over last year's finalists the Kangaroos, and arch enemy Carlton (and their old coach and new sparring partner Mick Malthouse).
Both clubs were without a host of regular senior players – a situation that while not ideal, has announced the arrival of some new names to AFL footy.
Amongst others, the Magpies have been without Dale Thomas, Luke Ball, Andrew Krakouer and Alex Fasolo but against Carlton, youngster Jamie Elliot turned in a 5 goal BOG performance and Sam Dwyer showed the class, poise and work in traffic that has had many experienced VFL punters calling for him to get a shot at the big time for years.
The Hawks are yet to unvail new recruit Brian Lake, but after getting through a VFL game unscathed, the key backman is in line for a call up. The knee curse that hit the club sees them missing Michael Osborne, Brendan Whitecross and Matt Suckling. In their absence, Brad Hill has shown glimpses of his undoubted talent and against West Coast, young defender (and perennial whipping boy) Ryan Schoenmakers played arguably his best game for the club.
What to expect:
Midfield. Midfield. Midfield.
Both sides have forwards capable of kicking bags so whoever gets the best of the clearances and inside 50s will most likely come out on top.
Swan, Pendlebury. Mitchell, Lewis. You know what you are going to get from these types of players every week.
It's widely acknowledged that to succeed in modern football you need numbers and depth through the middle. This is where players such as Steele Sidebottom and Tyson Goldsack or Isaac Smith and Grant Birchall come into calculations. The Hawks and Pies will rotate players through the middle throughout the day. Whichever side gets the most out of their second tier or lesser known onballers will hold a distinct advantage.
Sounds simple, but it's much harder to execute.
The Hawks will be without star and hardnut Brad Sewell – a huge loss from a contested possession/clearance point of view. Magpies might just have the numbers and quality to get the upper hand here but it will be close.
Two very experienced, highly skilled teams and both can expect to be involved at the pointy end of the season.
Key Match Ups:
Both sides have very similar strengths and weaknesses. They both have some gun midfielders, forwards who can take a game away from their opponents and defenders who like to rebound and provide dash/drive from the back half.
Who gets the dynamic duo of Buddy and Cyril?
One of Collingwood's glaring weakness is the ability to shut down small forwards. This has again been highlighted in recent weeks with North's Lyndsay Thomas and Carlton's Jeff Garlett proving a thorn in their side.
Heath Shaw looks to run off opponents and is more comfortable on a flank. Harry O'Brien is spending more time on a wing/in the middle. Jordan Russell was brought in with this type of role in mind but at times against the Blues he looked all at sea. Alan Toovey has grown in stature and ability in recent years and will most likely be given first crack at Rioli. If that fails or Collingwood is missing his run, Marty Clarke might be given a chance to clamp down on Rioli – does he have the pace to go with him?
Ben Reid shapes as the logical match up for Buddy with Nathan Brown as plan B. Skipper Nick Maxwell is a late withdrawal after discovering a fractured wrist mid week. Will be hoping they don't have to resort to a back up plan as that would mean Franklin is having a big say in the game. And the Pies definitely don't want Buddy having too big a say…
Cloke verse who?
Lake was recruited with the primary focus of playing on – and stopping – the games "monster" key forwards, an area that the Hawks new they had to improve in. Is he fit enough to go head-to-head with one of the games best power forwards?
If Lake doesn't play, the job falls to Schoenmakers who despite a promising/encouraging game last week, has struggled at times on the big boys of the competition. Cloke sometimes has a propensity to get caught up trying to outmuscle defenders, he'll need to push up to the ball carriers and use his athleticism.
Josh Gibson will be hugely important with his ability to roll off his man and be the "third man up" at the contest. He'll be loose at times but will look to double team Cloke with his direct opponent.
Who rucks for the Pies?
Darren Jolly looked like he had suffered some major rib damage against the Blues, at one point the thought was that he might've broken them and possibly even punctured a lung. Despite being cleared off anything substantial (cartilage damage only), Jolly is still in massive doubt to take the field against the Hawks. This leaves "the beard to be feared" Ben Hudson (who the Pies lured out of retirement as a rookie/ruck coach) and the young, and untried, Jarrod Witts as options to go up against the in form Max Bailey. Feeding the onballers could prove a crucial aspect of the contest and go a long way to deciding the outcome.
Quentin Lynch was more than servicable last week and rucked manfully for the Pies when Jolly went down. His ability to form a strong partnership with Cloke while also providing ruck relief will be critical for Collingwood not only on the weekend, but moving forward.
Conclusion:
This really is a toss of the coin type game.
Franklin and Rioli shape as the two most dangerous players on the park but can the Hawks depleted midfield give them enough opportunity? Sewell is a massive loss and coming back from WA is always a tough ask but Luke Hodge – who just signed a new one year deal – will be better for the run.
With that in mind, the Hawks look to have the edge up front with Franklin, Rioli, Gunston, Hale & Roughead all capable of hitting the scoreboard and Collingwood will miss Maxwell's defensive abilities and leadership down back.
Looking forward to seeing both sides clash at nearer to full strength later in the season.
Prediction:
Hawks by 15 points.
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