Round five commences with the traditional ANZAC Day clash at the MCG between Collingwood and Essendon. ANZAC Day is always the biggest home and away match of the year regardless of ladder position and form, but this year's clash will also be a battle between two red hot teams with plenty to play for.
| Collingwood v Essendon Thursday, April 25 2.40pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy Weather: Min 11 Max 21 Chance of rain 10%: <1mm Wind 28k WNW Betting: Collingwood $1.63 Essendon $2.30 |
The Bombers on the other hand are undefeated after four rounds. With off-field controversy dominating the headlines early in the season, many football experts put Essendon's early season form down to emotion and the galvanisation of a team under siege. However, the win against St Kilda last round was clinical and workmanlike. The Bombers were simply better skilled, more structured and more efficient. This is a side capable of worrying any side in the competition and could be a real threat this year.
The challenge this week for both sides will be fronting up after a five day break. It could be a survival of the fittest considering both sides have experienced injury concerns.
Recent History
Collingwood and Essendon met twice last season, with the Magpies prevailing on both occasions.
The most recent clash was in round 23 when Collingwood won by 32 points. Dane Swan polled the three votes with 42 possessions, Travis Cloke polled two votes kicking five goals and Scott Pendlebury polled the one vote with 31 disposals.
However it was last year's ANZAC day match which was more memorable. The Magpies led most of the day, only to surrender the lead in the dying minutes of the match. A last minute Jarryd Blair goal gave the Magpies a one point victory. It was truly a memorable match.
Coincidently it was Dane Swan who was the dominant figure on the ground, again polling three votes and again having 42 disposals. He also kicked three goals. Pendlebury was also prominent with 34 disposals and polled two votes, while Dyson Heppell made his mark on the big stage polling the one vote.
If this year's clash is as thrilling as last year's, then we could be in for an absolute epic encounter.
At the Selection Table
Both coaches have some real dilemmas ahead of selection this week.
Starting with the Magpies, and coach Nathan Buckley has at least three senior players who will be pushing hard for selection his round. Tyson Goldsack, Ben Johnson and Darren Jolly all missed round four through injury but will face a fitness test ahead of ANZAC Day. Nonetheless, even if they pass their fitness tests, their replacements in Brent Macaffer, Josh Thomas and Ben Hudson all performed valiantly last round and will be tough to displace from the side.
Also in line for selection is Andrew Krakouer after a 36 disposal game in the VFL. Krakouer has put together a solid month of football at VFL level and must be inching ever closer to returning to the senior side. Alan Didak has also performed strongly at VFL level and is coming off a three goal game. Others impressing at VFL level include Jackson Paine and Kyle Martin.
On the injury front, Nathan Brown should be clear to play after appearing to hurt his groin last round. If he was to be unavailable, Tyson Goldsack or rookie Jack Frost could be potential replacements. Dayne Beams is 2-3 weeks away and Nick Maxwell five. Luke Ball will return via the VFL against Bendigo this Friday.
Turning the focus onto Essendon and coach James Hird faces some similar questions on the injury front. Both Michael Hurley and Dustin Fletcher have been ruled out through injury. Stewart Crameri faces a fitness test prior to the match and seems the logical replacement for Hurley.
However, if Crameri is unable to pass his fitness test, then Joe Daniher may make his highly anticipated debut after kicking four goals in the VFL last week. Also in contention for the Bombers include Travis Colyer and Nathan Lovett-Murray who have impressed at VFL level.
Paddy Ryder and Nick Kommer will miss the match through suspension.
Key Match-Up
Travis Cloke v Jake Carlisle - Big Travis kicked a career high seven goals last week and leads the Coleman Medal after four rounds. This round he faces a tough opponent in Jake Carlisle who has already claimed some big scalps this year. Cloke has a terrific record against Essendon, but typically plays on Cale Hooker. Carlisle stands at 200cm (four centimetres taller than Cloke) and has terrific agility. He also has great hands and sits third in the AFL for marks. Cloke on the other hand leads the competition for marks and goals and also weighs more. This will be Carlisle's biggest test, but it will also be a real challenge for Cloke as he may not have it all his own way in the air.
Focus on Collingwood
After a disappointing loss to Hawthorn last round, the Magpies well and truly bounced back against the Tigers last week. It was the best the defensive structures have looked all season. Collingwood was totally able to stifle Richmond's run and managed the star studded Tiger midfielders effectively. The forward line looked as dangerous as it has all season, largely thanks to the efforts of Travis Cloke.
Steele Sidebottom - Steele has played a variety of roles so far this year, but has looked most dangerous when he plays predominantly as a forward. He had one of his best games last round kicking four goals. He typically likes the big stage and will yet again prove a handful if he spends a lot of time up forward.
Heath Shaw - After an interrupted start to the season, I feel as if Heath bounced back to his best form last week against Richmond. In the absence of Maxwell, Shaw went back into defence and was often asked to play on a taller opponent. He responded to the challenge and played a typical Heath Shaw game, peeling off his opponent to assist teammates and also competing strongly when forced to play tightly on his man. He is another who typically rises to the challenge on the big stage and now looks as if he has regained his match fitness.
Marty Clarke - Marty is slowly cementing his place in the top 22 which is a huge effort considering the depth in the side. It is clear that he has put a lot of work into his kicking and has an increased hunger for tackling this season. Importantly, Marty can be used in a run-with role which is something Collingwood has clearly lacked. In last year's ANZAC Day match, Marty did a huge job on Brent Stanton and may be asked to do the same job again this year considering Stanton's terrific early season form.
Quinten Lynch - Lynch gets another mention this week after yet another impressive game last round. Although he is not kicking as many goals as we would have thought, Lynch continues to add valuable support in the ruck and is playing a role all over the field. He was everywhere last round, taking 14 marks. He is clearly assisting Cloke and is playing a terrific support role. I am interested however to see how Lynch responds when Cloke is having a quiet match. If Carlisle gets the better of Cloke this round, then it would be good to see Lynch play deeper forward and present as a real target. This would allow Cloke to press higher up the field to get into the game. When Cloke is on song however, Lynch is smart enough to vacate the forward 50 and help out around the field, which opens up the forward 50 for Travis.
Dale Thomas - It has been an inconspicuous start to the year for Daisy after an interrupted pre-season. He was the sub last round which may have been a ploy from Buckley to keep him fresh for this round. He didn't necessarily set the world on fire when he came on during the third quarter, but he still managed 10 disposals and also made an incredible smother in the forward 50 which set up a goal. It is now time for Thomas to start reminding the football world how good a player he can be. Making this statement on ANZAC Day would be the perfect way to do this.
Focus on Essendon
Despite the injuries and suspensions to key talls, I have been so impressed by the depth Essendon has in its key position stocks. Despite the loss of Hurley, Ryder and Fletcher, the Bombers have been able to bring in Scott Gumbleton and David Hille, while Carlisle has made the absence of Fletcher less noticeable with Tayte Pears and Hooker providing support.
The Bombers have a tough onball unit and will enjoy the game if it becomes a scrap. I get the feeling that a lot of attention will go towards shutting down Pendlebury and Swan this week who polled votes in both matches last season.
Brendon Goddard - He was the high profile signing of the pre-season, and has been very serviceable for the Bombers already in 2013. Although he is yet to really dominate a match, he has added class and finishing skills to a very workmanlike midfield. Goddard always plays well against Collingwood and you get the feeling he will lift for the big occasion this Thursday. Buckley may elect to use a player like Macaffer to try and shut down Goddard. However, it could be BJ's opportunity to really cement himself as an Essendon player on the biggest match of the home and away season.
Brent Stanton - Similar to last season, Stanton has started the year in remarkable fashion. He is clearly benefitting from the presence of Goddard and the strong form of Jobe Watson. It has meant less attention for Stanton.
Scott Gumbleton - With Crameri and Ryder out, Gumbleton finally got his chance to return to the side. He clearly took his chance, kicking four goals and taking 12 marks. He is fit and may finally be ready to really live up to the early hype. With Hurley out of the side this week, Gumbleton will be a key for the Bombers but will face tougher opposition this week.
Dyson Heppell - This youngster has already established himself as a fine player but he is taking the next step so far this season. He has played predominantly as a midfielder and is racking up the possessions. He has a good tank and is typically a good user of the ball. He adds to a developing Essendon midfield and plays a vital link up role. He is a player Collingwood needs to focus on because the Bombers like the ball in his hands.
Jobe Watson - I couldn't possibly write a preview involving Essendon without talking about the inspirational Bomber captain and reigning Brownlow Medallist. In fact, in next year's preview I may be referring to him as a dual Brownlow Medallist as I have already marked him down for 9-11 votes after only four rounds. With Hurley injured and no Crameri, Watson spent a lot of time up forward and was really dangerous kicking two goals. Despite the time up forward, Watson was still able to pick up 37 disposals and was simply unstoppable. Considering Collingwood is already without Ball and Dayne Beams, Watson looms as the match winner for the Bombers as there is no clear match-up for him. Expect Jarryd Blair to spend some time on the Bombers champ.
The Wrap Up
It is going to be an absolutely cracking game between two in form sides. Collingwood is clearly missing two of its best onballers but is getting more than adequate service from its fringe players. Essendon on the other hand is missing a number of its key talls, but has now developed a really even and balanced side.
Both teams need to get a few goals from its midfield. I think the tall forwards of Collingwood are far more accomplished than Essendon's forwards, however Essendon has a very strong ruck division with Bellchambers and Hille. If these two can get on top in the ruck and provide Jobe Watson with first use, then the Magpies may be on the back foot all day. Further, if Heath Hocking can shut down Swan or Pendblebury, then it will go a long way to stopping Collingwood's run.
This is a huge test for both sides, but I still think Collingwood has the experience to get across the line.
Pies by 8 points.
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