| Collingwood v Richmond Saturday, April 20 2.10pm MCG Fox Sports Weather: Min 9 Max 18 Chance of rain 5%: <1mm Wind 22k SSE Betting: Collingwood $1.80 Richmond $2.00 |
Two old foes take the field in the traditional time slot of Saturday afternoon, a throwback to the 1980s when both were powerhouse clubs – off field AND on field.
In recent years the Pies have more than had the Tigers measure, the closest Richmond has come to beating Collingwood in their last half a dozen encounters is 21 points (last year).
Included in those victories there’s been times when the Tiges have come into the contest choc full of confidence, ready to test themselves on the big stage, against big opposition and announce to the league “we’ve arrived”. Unfortunately for those at Punt Road, the Magpies have burst their bubble and brought them back to earth with a thudding reality check.
And so it’s with a slight sense of dejavu that we enter this round 4 clash.
The lead up:
Richmond
Richmond enters the game on a high after winning their first 3 games – something that hasn’t occurred since 1995. While the competition doesn’t read like roll call of finals aspirants (Carlton – who nearly snatched victory after trailing by almost 7 goals, St Kilda – who are widely acknowledged as on the decline and a Western Bulldogs outfit that most have tipped to finish bottom 4) the main thing for the yellow and black faithful is that they have won these games.
Tiger fans are well aware that in recent times their side hasn’t been able to get over the line in close games or games they were expected to win, and while there has been false dawns in the past, this year there is a real sense of optimism that their winning form is built on a sustainable model – maturity of young players, greater understanding of Damien Hardwick’s game plan, key additions of experienced players based on needs and a growing confidence that their time is approaching.
Showing new found depth with players such as Nahas, Edwards, Dea and Griffiths waiting in the wings, while the club’s number one selection last year, Nick Vlastuin, is yet to taste senior footy despite the coach labeling him as “the most ready to play draft pick” the club has had in his time.
Missing David Astbury and Nathan Foley from their senior players and Jake Batchelor was a late withdrawal from last week.
Collingwood
Collingwood are coming off a shellacking at the hands of premiership favourites Hawthorn. The Pies were in the contest til half time but were overrun to the tune of 54 points. Won their first two games including a comfortable victory over arch rival Carlton (it seems every week is a “finals like game” for the Maggies) and a round 1 win over last years finalists North.
Have suffered from loss of key personnel but are slowly getting back to their best 22. Missed Darren Jolly in a big way against the Hawks, the ruckman suffered a rib injury against Carlton and is no certainty to line up against Richmond. Luke Ball is also listed as a “test” but it remains to be seen if he’d come straight back into the seniors given his lack of match fitness.
Will also be without last years gun midfielder Dayne Beams, skipper Nick Maxwell and new recruit Clinton Young but Daisy Thomas will be better for the run last week.
Key match ups
It’s something of a broken record but the majority of AFL games are won and lost in the middle.
Both sides boast some impressive names in their starting onball units. Swan, Pendlebury and Thomas go head-to-head with Cotchin, Deledio and Martin. The Magpie trio have been doing it consistently and for a longer period than their Tiger counterparts, but so far this year the emerging cubs have been devastating.
Deledio has been underrated for quite some time but finally got recognition of his arrival with All Australian honours in 2012 and Cotchin, the young Tigers skipper, is widely recognised as an elite onballer.
But it’s the early form of Martin that has the Tiger faithful hoping the penny has dropped. Martin has been amongst the best ons for Richmond over the first three games including a BOG against the Bulldogs. Looks to be running better and appears lighter in the frame – still has his strength as evidenced by his “don’t argue”.
Pendlebury and Swan have been two of the premier midfielders over the last 5 plus years. Swan, like Martin, has his share of knockers in relation to his off field behaviour but you cannot question his output onfield. Plays his 200th game for the club this week and the Pies will be looking to do the right thing and deliver him a win (just don’t expect him to let his teammates chair him off – it’s not his style).
Given that these players will cancel each other out somewhat, the result could hinge on whose rotations/second group of mids get the upper hand. Steele Sidebottom, Jarryd Blair and Sam Dwyer will play important roles for Nathan Buckley, but this is an area that Hardwick might feel his side gets the upper hand.
With the Pies missing some of their first choice players such as Krakouer, Ball and Young, they will rely more on run with players such as Ben Johnson and Marty Clarke to assist with midfield grunt. The Tigers on the other hand have Grigg, Conca, Jackson, Tuck, Edwards, Knights and Newman to give a “chop out” in the rotations.
Ivan Maric has been in good form and is getting good relief from Vickery. If Collingwood are without first choice ruck Jolly, Maric will be keen to give first use of the ball to his midfielders. Hudson is an adequate replacement for Jolly and is certainly a workhorse but the combination of Vickery and Maric looms as key to the clash. If the Pies do have to use Lynch in the ruck for an extended period they are robbed of a viable goal kicking option.
The main question is whether the experience of the Collingwood side gives them a mental edge over a Richmond side that hasn’t tasted finals action for over a decade.
Forwards win matches
Both teams have their gun key forwards at each end of the ground. Jack Riewoldt is now a dual Coleman Medallist while Travis Cloke has widely been acknowledged as one of the best – if not the best – power forwards in the game.
The Pies could look to exploit the Tigers by throwing new recruit Quinten Lynch into the goal square. Lynch has proven to be a good back up ruck and with Jolly expected to miss, Buckley might be forced to rob Pete to pay Paul on occasions.
Young Jamie Elliot was a revelation against Carlton with 5 goals and will need another big game this week. Collingwood will also rely heavily on their midfielders to go forward and kick goals.
Ty Vickery has shown signs that he is over the shoulder injuries that plagued his 2012 campaign. If he is able to return to the form he showed in 2011, he’ll go a long way to leading the Tigers to the finals. He’s been lining up alongside one of the most improved players in the league in Luke McGuane. The defender turned forward is no Wayne Carey but what he does do is compete – in the air and on the ground. Has a good set of hands but his kicking can be erratic (the old “kicked it like a backman” theory).
Shane Edwards is enjoying a good start to 2013 and has spent time leading out of the goal square while Jake King provides grunt and the buzz word “forward pressure” – expect him to play almost a tagging role on Heath Shaw. Hardwick has also shown that he is happy to rest his onballers upfront with Cotchin and Martin in particular heading forward during matches.
Much will depend on the fitness of Pies defender Ben Reid who’ll line up beside Riewoldt. Reid suffered a jarred knee against the Hawks but returned to the field and saw out the game.
Stopping the goals
Troy Chaplin was brought to Tigerland to offer some experience to a young backline and to take on the gorilla opposition. He’ll most likely get first crack at Cloke with Alex Rance or Dylan Grimes as plan B.
Richmond’s defence is looking more settled each week. Chaplin, Rance and Grimes get the key forwards while Morris is a hard as nails defender who loves doing a job on the opposition small forwards. Ricky Petterd has added some run and dash to the backline which compliments Houli on the other flank.
Reid is a gun defender and Nathan Brown generally gets the other tall. Tyson Goldsack probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves outside of the Lexus centre and will be critical for the Pies who will sorely miss Maxwell.
Shaw, Alan Toovey and Harry O’Brien will all push off flanks and spend time in the middle. O’Brien in particular has been used further up the ground so far this year, coming off a wing and looking to add some run and dash.
Questions
Collingwood clearly has the edge on Richmond in regards to experience, but if they are missing Maxwell, Jolly and Ball they will lose some of that advantage. How much will this effect Buckley’s charges?
Likewise questions can be asked in regards to the Tigers and whether or not they’ll get stage fright on the big stage, in front of a big crowd in the big game timeslot. Can the Tigers claim the big scalp they need to announce their credibility?
Buckley has admitted that he hasn’t set anyone a tagging role to this stage, will this continue? On the flipside, who does Jackson go to? Most likely will attempt to stop Pendlebury and attempt to minimise his impact on the game.
Does Vlastuin make his debut in a huge game with a huge crowd? Brandon Ellis has been sub in recent weeks and might do with a full game at Coburg, will Hardwick roll the dice and throw the young hardnut they call Tigger in the deep end? Vlastuin has been compared to Hardwick for his attack on the ball and man, coming on as a sub might be a good way to be introduced to AFL footy.
Will the hard slog against the Hawks leave the Pies battered and bruised? Both sides coming off a 6 day break but the Tigers had a comfortable 10goal win over the Dogs in the comfort of Etihad while Collingwood were forced to battle it out in wet and heavy conditions against Hawthorn. Pies are a seasoned outfit and will no doubt be given a fairly easy week on the track, tired legs though might come into play late in the game when run and spread is at a premium.
Conclusion
Collingwood start favourites with the bookies and sit second behind the Hawks in premiership betting but for the first time in recent memory the Tigers may have the advantage in key areas of the game.
Both onball units have their stars but Richmond might actually run deeper – in part due to the Pies injury list.
And it’s this injury list that might have a say in the outcome of this game. In cliched terms “this might be a good time to get the Pies”. Tigers have a tough 3 weeks and need to claim a big scalp.
Prediction
At full strength Collingwood gets the nod, with momentum and belief the Tigers will be hard to stop. Really could go either way and will say a lot about whether or not Richmond has improved.
Richmond by 7 points.
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