| Collingwood v Hawthorn Sunday, April 14 3.15pm MCG 7mate / Fox Sports Weather: Min 16 Max 21 Chance of rain 60%: 5-10mm Wind 21k SSW Betting: Collingwood $2.22 Hawthorn $1.66 |
Round three plays host to some really intriguing games. However, the match of the round will be played at the MCG this Sunday afternoon between Collingwood and Hawthorn.
Both sides are coming off big victories in round two. Collingwood beat its arch enemy Carlton by 17 points while the Hawks responded to their round one disappointment with a stirring 50-point victory against West Coast over in Perth.
It would've been a sweet feeling going to recovery on Monday morning for Collingwood players and coach Nathan Buckley. It was a massive build-up to the blockbuster clash against Carlton last round, and the Magpies played a marvellous last quarter to snatch a come from behind victory.
However, the focus needs to turn quickly to Hawthorn, a side which Collingwood could not beat from three meetings last season. Collingwood has already beaten North Melbourne and Carlton, two sides which it could not beat in 2012. Therefore, a win against Hawthorn will complete the hat-trick.
Hawthorn on the other hand has had a horrid draw to start the season, and it doesn't get any easier with Collingwood, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Sydney in the next five rounds. It is essential that the Hawks get early wins on the board before the next stage of its draw after round seven. It may take as many as seventeen wins to make the top four this season, so getting off to a good start is essential.
Recent History
As discussed above, these two sides met on three occasions in 2012, with the Hawks winning all of these clashes. The last meeting was in the Qualifying Final where the Hawks were simply too strong, running out 38-point victors. Brad Sewell and Sam Mitchell led the way with 32 and 31 disposals respectively, with Lance Franklin kicking four goals. For the Magpies, Travis Cloke kicked six goals and Andrew Krakouer four.
Mitchell, in particular, has been dominant against Collingwood, polling a total of five votes last season and having a combined total of 96 possessions over the three clashes. 'Buddy Franklin' also has a great record against the Magpies, kicking nine goals in only two matches against the Pies last season. On the other hand, Dane Swan had a career high 49 disposals in round 17.
At the Selection Table
Both sides will have an interesting week at the selection table this round.
Starting with the Magpies, Nathan Buckley may have at least two forced changes due to injury. Darren Jolly will have his ribs tested after copping a hard knock last round while Nick Maxwell will miss up to two months due to wrist surgery. In terms of a replacement for Jolly, Buckley will be faced with the difficult decision of giving youngster Jarrod Witts his first game, or naming the established Ben Hudson for his first game in Magpies colours. Both were particularly good for the VFL team last round. It will be a big ask for Witts to debut against such a strong opponent, but Buckley has shown he is not afraid to give youngsters a go if they deserve it.
In regards to the replacement for Maxwell, the decision for Buckley will be whether to replace him with a small and perhaps use Tyson Goldsack more as the utility in defence, or recall a player such as Jack Frost for his second game to bolster the defensive stocks. My gut feeling is that Frost will be recalled after an impressive VFL game. I think the Magpies will need at least three key defenders to match up on the likes of Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and David Hale.
Also impressive in the VFL last week were a number of established VFL players in Dale Thomas, Alex Fasolo, Alan Didak and Andrew Krakouer. Thomas in particular looks ready to return given the fact that he has now had two runs with the VFL side. Fasolo and Didak in particular looked very sharp last week and will be banging on the door for selection.
It is just hard to find room in the senior side, and hard to see Buckley making too many changes to a winning side. Josh Thomas could also find himself recalled for some midfield strength.
In other good news, Luke Ball may return from a knee reconstruction via the VFL on Saturday night.
Turning focus onto the Hawks, and coach Alistair Clarkson will be forced to make at least one change this round with Brad Sewell ruled out with a hamstring injury. Clarkson has the option of playing new recruit Jonathan Simpkin to take Sewell's spot. However, Brian Lake is available for selection as well, and he was recruited to play on the monsters like Travis Cloke. Therefore, Clarkson may simply opt for a straight swap with Lake coming in for Sewell.
It is a tough call for Clarkson as the defence has held up quite well over the last two rounds, with Ryan Schoenmakers and Josh Gibson doing a fine job. But if Lake is fit enough for selection, it is hard to see him not getting the call-up.
Jack Gunston was a late withdrawal last round as well due to illness, and should return to the side given his good record against the Magpies. Shane Savage was the late change for Gunston last round and may have to make way for him again.
Focus on Collingwood
The most impressive part of the last two rounds for the Magpies has been the return of frenetic forward pressure. After a last quarter fade out against North Melbourne in round one, it was also terrific to see the Magpies run out the game strongly last round.
The focus this round needs to go onto shutting down Sam Mitchell and winning more clearances. After the loss of Jolly last round, the Magpies were smashed out of the centre. With the talent in Hawthorn's forward line, Collingwood cannot afford to get beaten out of the centre this round. The absence of Sewell will assist, but Collingwood is still without Ball and Dayne Beams.
Buckley will also be concerned by the fact that small forwards have kicked big bags against Collingwood in the last two rounds. With Cyril Rioli in good nick, shutting him down will also be essential.
Jamie Elliott - 'Billy' has been the toast of the town after his best on ground performance against Carlton. He was the match winner with five goals, 20 disposals and 10 marks. In my last preview, I called on Sinclair and Elliott to have more scoreboard influence, and they definitely responded kicking seven goals between them. Jamie probably already had two 'breakout' games last year against Fremantle and West Coast, but this was his first game where he had a real scoreboard impact. He has a bright future as his defensive pressure is phenomenal and he has now proven he has the offensive game to match. He has sticky hands and is also cool under pressure. He will receive more attention this week, but his impressive opening two rounds has really softened the absence of Krakouer, Thomas, Didak and Fasolo.
Quinten Lynch - Lynch arrived as a Collingwood player last round. When Darren Jolly went down, he was forced to run the entire game alone against a genuinely quality opponent in Matthew Kreuzer. To put this into perspective, Lynch is only one centimetre taller than Scott Pendlebury, yet he was rucking against a 200cm-plus giant. Although he was beaten at the centre bounces, he more than broke even around the ground and also gathered 23 disposals. He proved his incredible fitness by continually making every contest and even pushing deep into defence to fill holes. He has a huge heart, and I look forward to him moving back into the forward line this week to assist Cloke. However, if Witts is to debut this round, the strong presence of Lynch will again become important as a back-up ruck.
Sam Dwyer - He was yet another great story to come out of the Carlton game last round. He had 23 extremely classy disposals and also booted a goal. The mature aged recruit was initially recruited as a depth player, but his opening two rounds ensures he has secured his spot in the top 22 in the short term. He has improved with every game he has played and is a really reliable user of the ball. He has also shown a good turn of speed and an ability to run out games strongly. He looks to be a really good find for the Magpies. It may be difficult for him to retain his spot with so much quality still to return to the side, but if he keeps dishing up performances like last round, he will be very hard to displace. He is hungry to make this opportunity count.
Jarryd Blair - Without Beams and Ball, Blair has spent much more time in the thick of things and is doing a good job. He is not a huge possession winner, but he hits in hard, has an impact around stoppages and also has an ability to kick goals (he kicked two last round). In the first half when the game was going against Collingwood, Blair was one player who stepped up. He may find himself squared up against Sam Mitchell this round.
Heath Shaw - 'Heater' returned to the side in round two and had an immediate impact. It seems that Buckley will be using him in a number of roles this year, which is possible with Ben Johnson and Jordan Russell holding down defensive posts. Shaw spent a lot of time forward and could've kicked three or four goals. He looked a little bit rusty at times last round in his first game back, but remains a vital component of the Magpies' squad. I think he'll spend a bit more time in defence with Maxwell out of the side and will become the defensive general.
Focus on Hawthorn
In the pre-season, I took a look at the Hawks list and thought to myself that it lacked a little bit of pace. However, Alistair Clarkson has definitely addressed this with guys like Brad Hill and Jed Anderson playing a real role in the opening two rounds.
The Hawks worry the Magpies due to their precise foot skills coming off half back. Historically, Collingwood has found it difficult to lock the ball inside 50 and the forward press has nearly become redundant. Further, if the Hawks are able to penetrate the forward press, then they have the tall timber up forward to make the most of their forward entries.
Bradley Hill - What a start to the year this guy has had. He was a bit quieter against West Coast but still managed two goals. He is very quick, and also has precise foot skills. He is also a terrific decision maker and had a strong pre-season. He adds speed and youth to the Hawthorn midfield and, given the Magpies' troubles with Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran last round, Hill could be real X-Factor for Hawthorn on Sunday.
Cyril Rioli - A four goal game against West Coast would've sent warning signs for Nathan Buckley. In the last two rounds, players like Lindsay Thomas, Chris Yarran, Jeff Garlett and Andrew Walker have really got under the guard of the Collingwood defence. Hawthorn elected to use Rioli in a full forward role and really opened up space for him. This is a tactic the Hawks may elect to use again if Rioli is looking dangerous. Expect either Alan Toovey or Ben Johnson to get the role on him. Although Rioli is not a huge possession winner, he is a match winner and could be the difference on Sunday.
Max Bailey - Historically, the ruck has not been Hawthorn's strength. However, Bailey is quickly changing that after a very good performance against Dean Cox last round. He had 28 hitouts and 15 disposals and he more than broke even with his opponent. Hawthorn now has a very dangerous ruck combination with David Hale able to play forward and rotate in the ruck, and also Roughead who can pinch-hit as well. If Jolly is unable to play, expect the Hawks to really attempt to take an advantage in this area.
Sam Mitchell - He is a constant thorn in Collingwood's side and has had a terrific opening two rounds this season. It has been interesting to see Clarkson use Mitchell across half back where he has the ability to read the play and generate run out of defence. When the Hawks need a bit more grunt in the middle, then Mitchell has also been going back on the ball and dominate as well. He was arguably best on ground against West Coast with 31 disposals. Collingwood has no real match-up for Mitchell, but expect a number of players such as Jarrud Blair, Steele Sidebottom, Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury rotate through him.
Grant Birchall - I thought Birchall might suffer from the absence of Matthew Suckling but, if anything, he has taken his game to a new level. He had 31 disposals against West Coast and was close to best on ground along with Mitchell. Importantly, he is the guy the Hawks want to have the ball in hand as he generates so much run out of defence. I expect Collingwood to employ a forward tag on him to try and limit his output. I think having Luke Hodge back in the side also helps Birchall because Hodge is able to fill holes down back if needed.
The Wrap Up
There is no doubt in my mind that Hawthorn remains Collingwood's bogey side. Although the Magpies have been challenged in the opening two rounds, this is clearly their biggest test to date considering the quality players still out of the side. Nonetheless, Hawthorn is also missing some big names and will be tested as well. You get the feeling that if the Magpies are genuine about going deep into September this year, they will still need to get past Hawthorn at some stage.
It will also be very interesting to see how each side pulls up from last round. Hawthorn is recovering from the long trip to Perth whilst Collingwood needs to refocus after such a big build up to last week's game.
Collingwood's forward pressure needs to be switched on and it can't be beaten in the centre. This looks a much more focused Collingwood side with so many players fighting for their position. It is also a side that knows how to win the close matches. It is for this reason I am going to tip the Pies in a close one.
Collingwood by 5 points
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