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It is getting towards the business end of the 2013 AFL home and away season and two clubs that are in desperate need of a win will face off on Sunday at the MCG. Collingwood will host Essendon in a game that will see a crowd in excess of 80,000 turn up to watch two probable finalists go head to head. Collingwood need the win to secure an 8th straight finals appearance while the Bombers are still in the hunt for a top four spot, despite some patchy form of late. Essendon currently sits in 4th, just two premiership points clear of Fremantle but also only 2 points behind Sydney in third. It’s that tight in that region of the ladder that any two of those teams could finish top four still along with Geelong and Hawthorn. Collingwood currently sit 7th on the ladder, a little lower than desired for sure but still a fairly safe two games clear of the team in 9th spot, Carlton. The problem that Magpies face is that in the final 5 rounds their draw is about as tough as it gets, with games against Sydney and Hawthorn following this matchup. The Pies probably need 2 more wins to fully secure a finals position so a win in this game would make everyone at the Westpac Centre feel a lot safer than they are at the moment. PREVIOUS FORM It’s been a crazy year to be an Essendon fan with the ACC and ASADA investigation ongoing yet on field the team has given their fans more enjoyment than they have had for a decade. Not since 2001 has Essendon been a top four quality team on the field. The last few weeks though, without inspirational captain and probably their best player, Jobe Watson, the Bombers performances have dropped off a little. Wins over the lowly Western Bulldogs and GWS Giants disguised the form slump but then they read head on into Hawthorn last Friday night and no one was left in any doubt regarding where the Bombers stand on field without Watson. The Hawks dismantled every part of the Essendon team to come away with an emphatic 56 point win. It leaves the Bombers on the edge of the top four fighting for those last two spots with Fremantle and Sydney. The one thing in Essendon’s favour is a slightly easier draw in the final 5 games. Essendon have had some players still performing at a high level though in Watson’s absence with Brendan Goddard and Dyson Heppell consistently name in the best players, even in the loss last week. One statistic that shows how the absence of Watson is hurting the Bombers is that since he hurt his shoulder/collarbone in the first quarter against Port Adelaide, they have been outscored more from stoppages than any other team in the AFL. They need him back. Collingwood are still struggling, as shown by the first half of last week’s game against the GWS Giants. At half time of that game the Pies trailed a side that is yet to win a game this year by 3 goals and even at three quarter time only held a 2 point lead. While a six goal to zero last quarter made the scoreline seem one sided, it was once again a performance that was below expectations again for Collingwood. Coming off that disastrous loss to the Gold Coast Suns the week before the Magpies were expected to come out fired up but it was Giants full forward Jeremy Cameron who stole the show with 7 of his sides 10 goals, including 4 in the first quarter. The Magpies played Ben Reid forward for the whole game, which left the backline exposed as expected. It is doubtful Reid will start forward this week you’d think after that display from Cameron. There were some promising signs for the Magpies though with youngster Marley Williams playing so well that he earned the round 18 Rising Star nomination. Also a lot of Magpie fans got their first glimpse at Brodie Grundy and the first round draft pick didn’t let them down, as the young ruckman showed his aggressive style in his debut game. Collingwood are still a work in progress, but if they want to be doing any damage come finals time they will have to improve their consistency or face an early exit in September. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW Collingwood need to find some form soon or risk being eliminated either before the finals even begin or in week one of this years finals series. Their recent form has been inconsistent to say the least, with strong wins over Carlton and Adelaide followed by probably the two worst performances of the year against the two expansion teams. The loss to the Gold Coast hurt, and not only that it placed pressure on the whole club to perform. Yet the players backed that up with another lacklustre effort against the easy beats of the competition last week. The first half was woeful and the second half only produced good football in bursts, which actually isn’t how the Pies have played their best periods of football in 2013. This week Collingwood at least has some hope of improvement in the form of players returning from injury. Darren Jolly, Quinten Lynch, Ben Hudson, Luke Ball and Paul Seedsman are all likely to be fit to play on Sunday which for once means coach Nathan Buckley has a selection head ache of a good kind. Jolly may be the most important of those players though as the Pies have really struggled in the ruck in 2013, and despite some negativity from the fans he is still the clear number one ruckman at the club. There is some concern over Ben Reid and Lachlan Keeffe though as they both sustained injuries late in the game versus GWS, although the extent of those injuries is unknown at the moment. To even be competitive with Essendon this week, let alone defeat them the Magpies will have to get back to somewhere near their best football, or at least the level they were at against the Blues and Crows. When playing their best football the Magpies players place an intense amount of pressure on the ball carrier and move the ball quickly, and it was both these aspects that were missing over the last two weeks. The inclusion of Ball and Seedsman will help that side of their game a little bit, but also the Magpies will have to be more efficient when going forward. In the games Collingwood has lost to Port Adelaide and Gold Coast recently, inaccuracy at vital times has cost them any chance of winning the game, and against a top 4 calibre team like Essendon any missed opportunity will hurt. Part of the reason for that inaccuracy is unhealthy reliance on Travis Cloke up forward, and a lack of other scoring options. The Pie sit 14th for accuracy at goal, it’s a statistic that will have to improve over the coming weeks if they are to avoid a three game losing streak against three of the top 5 teams. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS It’s been a tumultuous year for the Bombers in so many ways, with the unanswered questions surrounding the ASADA and ACC drug use investigation hanging over the clubs head for most of this year. Off field the club may be in the middle of it’s greatest controversy in it’s history, but on field the players and coaching staff have delivered to a level that most find astounding given the circumstances. Usually when a club goes through a controversy of this magnitude it falls apart on the field too, yet this season Essendon are exceeding even their own expectations and currently sit 4th on the ladder after 18 rounds. The off season recruitment of the biggest free agent on the market, Brendan Goddard was always going to help a side lacking big game experience, and he hasn’t let them down at all. At times Goddard has strengthened the backline but it’s the partnership he’s formed with Watson, Stanton and Heppell in the midfield that has Essendon on track to finish top four. The Bombers now have very few weaknesses on the park, something that hasn’t been said about them for a decade. The Essendon midfield has been immense this season, and shown by statistical rankings of 3rd for centre clearances, 7th for total clearances, 3rd for inside 50′s and 7th in hitouts. Of course with names like Watson, Stanton, Goddard, Heppell, Hocking and a rotation of quality ruckman it’s no surprise to see the Bombers rank that highly, although as mentioned before they have dropped off a little bit since their captain got injured. The Bombers will be hoping he returns, and on the other hand that Pies ruckman Darren Jolly doesn’t, as the Magpies have been convincingly beaten in the ruck in most games this season but especially when the two time premiership ruck doesn’t play. Essendon will undoubtedly send Heath Hocking to match up on one of the Pie star midfielders and this is also an advantage the Bombers will have over Collingwood, a proper midfield tagger. In the past few weeks Scott Pendlebury’s influence has been restricted by effective tags and he is the most likely target for Hocking. The Bombers will need to dominate this area and will look to improve on a midfield performance last week that was maybe their worst of the season so far. The Essendon forward line is very effective, currently sitting 3rd for both accuracy and total points, but of course that is always helped by also being ranked 3rd for inside 50′s. The Bombers have 9 players this year that have effectively impacted the scoreboard (13 goals or more) but it’s Crameri, Bellchambers and Hurley that have been the main stays of one of the best forwards lines in the competition this season. Crameri should return this week and Scott Gumbleton has been impressing in the VFL so he may get another chance in place of gun youngster Joe Daniher. Tom Bellchambers has been the stand out of the forward set-up though as he has managed 24 goals so far this season while also playing that secondary ruck role so well. Essendon will look to move the ball quickly inside 50 to create as many one on one matchups as possible as it’s clear that the Magpies defense is vulnerable on the counter attack. Fitness issues with Ben Reid and Lachlan Keeffe only add to the problem for the Pies but it seems both may still play. The Bombers backline has struggled in recent years to contain the monster forwards of the AFL and although it has improved somewhat in 2013, Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughed showed last week that this is still the weakest area of the ground for the Bombers. The run and rebound out of the backline isn’t a concern but the key position defenders are, with some doubt over whether Carlisle and Hurley are better suited down back or forward, with the former spending most of his time down back this season. On most occasions Carlisle, Hooker and Pears have been able to restrict the opposition tall forwards successfully but there have been lapses, such as last weeks game. The problem for Collingwood this week is they really only have the one reliable tall forward, even if he (Travis Cloke) has had more shots at goal than any other player in the competition. Essendon will no doubt drop a spare man back to help out whoever is playing on the Pies man mountain, and once again the delivery of the Pies midfielders will go a long way to deciding how effective of a game Cloke has. The Pies don’t really have a plethora of small and medium forwards either so the Bombers will be confident of shutting down the Magpie forwards. It’s definitely been a tough year to be an Essendon fan and with the next few weeks likely to result in the conclusion of the drug use investigation the Bombers will soon know their fate. Until then though the only thing the players can do is concentrate on football, and they’ve done that well for the majority of this season. The last few weeks may have shown some signs that it’s finally become too overwhelming for the players and coaches alike but this looms as a test to prove just how serious the Essendon football club is on field this year. If Watson returns they should win, and even without him they’d back themselves to defeat a struggling Magpies outfit. TIP It’s very hard to predict the result for this game without knowing the final 22 of each side. If Watson takes his place on Sunday Essendon should start favourites, but if he pulls out late as some expect then the Pies will start shorter you’d think. The return of Ball and Seedsman and the availability of Reed and Keeffe also helps the Magpies but there sitll might be a late out or two there also. I expect the Magpies will produce the type of football that saw them defeat Carlton and Adelaide a few weeks back and if they do they’ll be in this game up to their eyeballs. If the Magpies can remedy their poor starts I can see them winning this game by a small margin, depending on final selection of course. PIES BY 11 POINTS. SUMMARY This shapes as one of the biggest games in the seven seasons of Sunday twilight footy. The Pies took three quarters to shake off the winless Greater Western Sydney before getting the win that keeps them in the hunt for a top four berth. One of the clubs they're hunting is Essendon, who after a bright opening 20 minutes last Friday, was never in the hunt against Hawthorn. It again raises the question of whether off-field events have finally caught up with the Bombers, but then again they've been so resilient all season that it would be foolish to dismiss them here. If Dustin Fletcher and Jobe Watson return, they have the tools to complete a season-sweep of the Magpies. PAST FIVE TIMES R5, 2013, Essendon 18.13 (121) d Collingwood 10.15 (75) at the MCG R23, 2012, Collingwood 14.20 (104) d Essendon 10.12 (72) at the MCG R5, 2012, Collingwood 11.14 (80) d Essendon 11.13 (79) at the MCG R19, 2011, Collingwood 25.16 (166) d Essendon 14.8 (92) at the MCG R5, 2011, Collingwood 16.11 (107) d Essendon 11.11 (77) at the MCG THE SIX POINTS 1. Essendon defeated Collingwood earlier this season on Anzac Day in round five at the MCG winning by 46 points. David Zaharakis was best on ground with 34 possessions and four goals. 2. It snapped a seven-game losing streak by the Bombers against the Magpies. 3. This will be the 228th clash between the sides and Collingwood holds the advantage winning 124 games to 99. There have also been four drawn matches. 4. Did you know this will be the first time in history Collingwood and Essendon have played in the Sunday twilight timeslot? 5. Collingwood and Essendon are ranked first and second for total disposals this season, both averaging only 380. Both sides are also first and second this season for uncontested possessions. 6. Essendon skipper Jobe Watson's absence because of a busted collarbone has seen him slip to fourth overall on the Vero AFL Player Rankings. Scott Pendlebury (five) and Dane Swan (seven) remain solid in the top 10. |
The Bombers slipped to fourth on the ladder following their loss to Hawthorn last round. They sit only two points clear of Fremantle. Therefore, a loss to the Magpies this weekend could see Essendon drop out of the top four. For Collingwood, a loss will leave its top eight position vulnerable. With matches against Sydney and Hawthorn to follow, Collingwood needs to win this game to keep a three game buffer from ninth position. Collingwood also needs another big scalp to regain some respect after a lacklustre fortnight. It has been an explosive week for Essendon off-field. This preview will not attempt to delve into these issues, other than to say that the Bombers have responded to every off-field challenge thrown at them this year. It will be interesting to see whether that spirit has been broken, or whether it will galvanise the team yet again. As eluded to above, Collingwood also has more than the four points to play for. After losing to Gold Coast and struggling for three quarters against the winless Greater Western Sydney, some football experts this week have written the Magpies off as a serious threat this year. Though I think this is a very premature call, the only way Collingwood can answer its critics is through its on-field effort. Recent History These two sides last met in round five this year where the Bombers broke a seven game losing streak against the Magpies. Essendon won the ANZAC day clash convincingly by 46 points. David Zaharakis was the hero, picking up 34 disposals and kicking four goals. Jobe Watson and Brent Stanton also led from the front with 31 disposals each. Tom Bellchambers was dominant in the ruck with 34 hitouts and two goals, while Jason Winderlich was also prominent with three goals. For Collingwood, Steele Sidebottom was Collingwood’s highest possession winner with 31 and Swan had 30. Travis Cloke battled manfully with Jake Carlisle booting two goals. At the Selection Table A number of key Magpies face fitness tests ahead of the big clash this Sunday. Luke Ball, Darren Jolly, Ben Hudson and Paul Seedsman are all pushing for selection after injury layoffs. The battle between Jolly and Hudson will be particularly interesting considering Jarrod Witts and Brodie Grundy were promising last week in the ruck. Ben Reid injured his ankle towards the end of last round’s match and will also face scans later this week to determine if he will line up against the Bombers. The extra day’s rest may assist his recovery. Andrew Krakouer, Alan Didak and Quinten Lynch were all amongst the best in the VFL last week and will also put their hands up for selection. Turning focus onto Essendon, and all eyes will be on skipper Jobe Watson to see whether he returns. His fate lies with his surgeon who needs to give him the all-clear to play following a broken collarbone. Others in line for selection include Jason Winderlich, Dustin Fletcher and Stewart Crameri who all face fitness tests. Scott Gumbleton’s form at VFL level has been good and he will put his hand up as well. Focus on Collingwood Buckley has a bit of work to do with his side ahead of Sunday’s match. In particular, I feel that the midfield needs tweaking. Despite the fact that Collingwood has dominated uncontested possession and inside 50s over the last two weeks, its forward entries have been poor, and the midfield’s defensive pressure has been worrying. GWS and Gold Coast were able to counter attack with fluidity and were more efficient than the Magpies going forward. This has left the defence exposed and Collingwood has been too easy to score against. Stoppages have also been an issue. Against a more experienced opponent, Buckley will be expecting a big response from his midfield. The Magpies need to get on top around the stoppages but I think that they also need to set better structures to prevent Essendon’s run and carry. I feel that too many Collingwood midfielders seem to be getting sucked into the contests, which is allowing too much space for the opposition to break into forward of the play. Steele Sidebottom – After a lean patch between rounds 11 to 15, Sidebottom has lifted his rating over the last three weeks. This coincides with the return of Dayne Beams who has taken a lot of the burden off Steele. He will enjoy the freedom of not being tagged and will be utilised in a variety of positions. In particular, Buckley has opted to use Sidebottom behind the ball over the past month, which has had some success. Lachlan Keeffe – After a slow return to the senior side following a long layoff due to a knee reconstruction, Keeffe showed really positive signs last week. He was moved onto the explosive Jeremy Cameron and did a really good honest job after Nathan Brown had conceded four early goals. Cameron worked Keeffe into the ground, but Keeffe stuck to his guns. He still has a fair way to go before returning to his absolute best, but he could prove a really vital player for Buckley as it gives him the freedom to utilise Ben Reid as a forward. He will have a big job this week against the resting Essendon ruckman. Marley Williams – Marley was rewarded for his efforts this week with a NAB Rising Star nomination. I have made mention in previous articles about Williams but it cannot be underestimated how important he has become to the side. Without Alan Toovey, Marley had really stepped up to become Collingwood’s best shut down defender for small forwards. He is aggressive and never gives up. He also has speed and is quite good in the air for a man of his size. His kicking is still improving but as long as he keeps his focus on shutting down his opponent it will not be a major issue. Focus on Essendon The Bombers have developed a really complete side with match winners across every line. The midfield has been bolstered by Brendon Goddard, which in turn has seen players like Brent Stanton, Jake Melksham and Dyson Heppell really flourish. Nonetheless, the past three rounds have been below par by the Bombers. The absence of Jobe Watson may be the cause of this, or perhaps Essendon is starting to tire. In particular, James Hird is yet to settle his preferred forward line. Questions also remain as to whether Michael Hurley is best used as a forward or defender, or whether the side functions best with two ruckmen and two tall forwards. Gumbleton, Crameri and Joe Daniher have all been in and out of the side, whilst the crumbers in Leroy Jetta and Alwyn Davey cannot quite cement a spot either. At its best, Essendon is a very exciting team to watch, but is also able to combine team defence with offensive flair. The team defence has been slightly down over the last few rounds and the forward line has struggled at times. Tom Bellchambers – The ruck combination of Bellchambers and Ryder is quickly becoming one of the most damaging in the AFL. This has particularly been the case over the last month as Bellchambers has been in good goal kicking form (he has kicked 10 goals in the last four games). This fits in nicely with a solid average of 20 hitouts a game over this period. He looms as a real handful for the Magpies on Sunday given his size and ability to play forward. He was influential on ANZAC Day kicking two goals and notching up 32 hitouts. If Jolly or Hudson are unable to pass fitness tests, it will be a huge ask for Witts and Grundy to hold up against Ryder and Bellchambers. Jake Melksham – Melksham has been one of Essendon’s most improved players this year, playing all but one game and becoming a goal kicking midfielder. His second half of the year in particular has been most promising, regularly picking up over 20 disposals and averaging a goal a game in this time. Melksham’s career stalled a bit in 2012 but he has really established himself in the side now. He rounds out a very solid midfield and is definitely one sneaking under the radar. Dyson Heppell – Without Jobe Watson, Heppell has become the ‘tagged’ player, such has been his influence in 2013. Now a permanent midfielder, Heppell averages over 25 disposals and four tackles. He is a very hard runner and has made the transition into midfield with ease, which outlines his fitness. Heppell will be looking forward to the return of Watson but he has proved over the last few weeks that he knows how to work through a tag and win his own football. The Wrap Up Based on ladder position and form, Essendon deserves to be favourites leading into this game. However, I feel that it is hard to predict how the Bombers will react to the off-field pressures of this week. I am also expecting a serious spike in Collingwood’s intensity this round given the disappointing results of the past fortnight. Collingwood has a lot to play for and should have a strong line-up on the park this Sunday if a number of key players pass fitness tests. The stoppages will be a key statistic this weekend. If Bellchambers and Ryder get on top in the ruck, and Essendon in turn wins clearances, then I think the Magpies will struggle to contain Essendon’s run and carry. Collingwood’s ball movement out of defence has also been slow in the past few weeks and the side has been struggling to score when its opponent has put numbers behind the ball. Therefore, getting first use of the footy out of the centre will be vital in preventing its opponent setting up defensive structures. After two weeks against the expansion sides, I think Buckley and his team will look forward to testing themselves against some of the heavyweights in the forthcoming rounds. It might be just what Collingwood needs to snap back into gear. But it needs the scalp of Essendon this weekend or finals may not be as secure as first thought. Collingwood by 2 points HEAD TO HEAD Played: 227, Collingwood 124, Essendon 99, Drawn 4. LAST TIME Essendon 18.13 (121) def. Collingwood 10.15 (75), Round 5, 2013 at the MCG WALKING WOUNDED Collingwood could be set to welcome back a raft of key players with Luke Ball (calf), Darren Jolly (knee) and Ben Hudson (calf) all a chance to return this weekend. Swing man Ben Reid could be in doubt after injuring his ankle very late in the match against Greater Western Sydney last round while Paul Seedsman will also be tested after sitting out the clash with the Giants due to a calf complaint. Alex Fasolo (foot), Dale Thomas (ankle) and Clint Young (hamstring) are all still a while away while Alan Toovey continues his rehab from a knee reconstruction and will take no further part in 2013. Essendon could also be boosted by a host of big inclusions - none of which are bigger than inspirational captain Jobe Watson. The reigning Brownlow Medallist is a chance to take on the Magpies just four weeks after breaking his collarbone while Dustin Fletcher (back), Jason Winderlich (soreness) and Stewart Crameri (ankle) all appear set for recalls. FORM Collingwood's recent form has been worrying at best. In the past two weeks they have been greatly tested by the AFL's expansions clubs. Firstly, Gold Coast inflicted a shock seven-point loss on the Magpies at Metricon Stadium and last week Nathan Buckley's men needed more than three quarters to finally shake off the bottom-placed and winless Giants. The most troubling aspect of the Pies' 40-point win over GWS was the fact that for large parts of the game they were outdone around the stoppages and in contested situations by their more inexperienced opponents and actually ended up with less clearances and tackles. If it wasn't for Dane Swan, things could have been even hairier for the Pies. The 2011 Brownlow Medallist racked up 39 disposals (13 contested) and booted three goals. Swan has now averaged 36 touches and booted seven goals in his last four games. Essendon came crashing back down to earth last week when their six-match winning streak was snapped in emphatic style by Hawthorn and their bogey man Lance Franklin, whose eight-goal haul powered the Hawks' 56-point victory. Brendon Goddard was one of Essendon's few winners on the ground with almost all of his 24 disposals of a high quality. WE THINK Getting an accurate read on Collingwood this season is harder work than trying to build a time machine. And the way the Magpies have been playing recently, their president Eddie McGuire probably wouldn't mind travelling back to 2009 to scrap the deal that led to the senior coaching role being handed over to Buckley from Mick Malthouse. The last two weeks has seen the Magpies struggle against the league's newest sides, the fortnight before that saw them convincingly beat Carlton and Adelaide and a week before their big win over the Blues they were thumped by Port Adelaide. At their best this year they have beaten the likes of Geelong and at their worst they have lost to Gold Coast. Their wildly fluctuating form makes them too risky to tip in this one against one of the season's most solid performers. And if the Bombers do regain that star quartet, Essendon should do the double on Collingwood for the first time since 2005. Essendon by 20 points. |
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