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What a difference a few weeks makes. If you go back just two weeks the Collingwood Football Club was in crisis it seemed, having lost all on field form. The media and fans were writing their season off after a loss to the Gold Coast and an unimpressive win over the GWS Giants. Fast forward two weeks, and the Magpies look as dangerous as any other team in the competition at the moment. It all started against Essendon for the Magpies when that ferocious intensity and pressure on the opposition, the traits that made the Pies so good in 2010 and 2011, returned to a level probably unseen since those days. The Magpies destroyed the hapless Bombers by 79 points and then last Saturday night in Sydney followed that up with a win over the reigning premiers, the Swans by 29 points. At this very moment the Magpies are one of, if not the team no one wants to face in week one of the finals series. Once again though the draw just gets tougher for the Magpies with a matchup this Friday night against their bogey team, Hawthorn. I say bogey team because since the Pies last beat the Hawks, back in that epic 2011 preliminary final, Hawthorn has won all four meetings by an average of 43 points. The last time the two teams faced off was in round 3 this year and the Hawks smashed Collingwood off the park with a 55 point win, with Franklin, Breust, Roughead and Burgoyne combining to kick as many goals as the entire Magpies line up. There will be personnel changes to both sides in comparison to that last match but Collingwood really do have trouble against Hawthorn, so this is the biggest test as to whether the Pies are really a contender or not. Collingwood probably don't even have to win this game to prove their worth, a close result would do that just as well, but if they want to keep alive an outside chance of a top four position this is a must win game for the Magpies. PREVIOUS FORM One could argue that the Hawks, despite being on top of the AFL ladder at the moment, are not playing anywhere near their full potential. A 41 point loss in the wet at the MCG to the Tigers two weeks ago was followed up by a very lacklustre performance against the Saints on Friday night. Yes, the Hawks had two absolute stars missing in Luke Hodge and Lance Franklin but they struggled to put the Saints away until late, eventually coming away with a 46 point win. The loss to the Tigers was so out of the norm for the Hawks though, up to that point they had only lost two games all year, and they were both to Geelong, their bogey team. That loss to the Tigers was a strange one indeed, and can probably be put down to just an off week for the Hawks. There have been plenty of positives for the Hawks this year with Jarryd Roughead the stand out, trailing in the Coleman medal race by just one goal with three rounds left. Roughead has also begun to go back into the ruck for the Hawks, and may well be their most effective ruck as well. The Hawks are still one of the sides to beat in 2013, there's little doubt about that, despite that recent hiccup. Collingwood, wow, where did this come from? Two big wins over opponents that had been sitting in the top four for most of the season all of a sudden has rejuvenated the whole club. The win over Essendon could have been questioned in regards to it's validity, but to defeat the reigning premiers at home left the football world in no doubt of what the Pies are capable of. Collingwood again started slowly against the Swans, allowing the locals to kick the first 4 goals, but from then on the Pies really did dominate in just about every area. The only two Swans to put up real fights were McVeigh and Tippett, with the latter booting 6 goals before 3/4 time. For the Magpies the midfield totally dominated with Pendlebury, Beams, Swan and Ball all having over 30 possessions each. The turnaround in the last two weeks has also come about due to a more efficient forward line, with the move of Ben Reid down forward providing the Magpies with a multi dimensional attack for the first time this season. Jamie Elliott took advantage of that last week playing maybe his best game for the club, finishing with 3 goals as the primary small forward. The Pies are back in form, but this week is another test altogether. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW There's really no under stating just how big of a change has occurred to this Collingwood outfit in the last few weeks, with the club going from struggling against the two expansion clubs to ruthlessly disposing of two finals bound sides. There seems to be two main reasons for this improvement. The first one is a change in attitude from the players, you can just see they seem to be more aggressive but also enjoying their football a lot more than they were a few weeks back. The second point, and this may actually be the reason for point one, is that the Pies finally have a settled best 22 playing week in, week out. This weekend for the second time in a row the Pies may well make no changes at all, and stability in a senior AFL team is something that leads to success. The Magpies have used 40 players this season, only the second year GWS Giants have used more, and this shows just how unstable, and how injury wrecked Collingwood has been in 2013. Of course, with injury and instability comes opportunity and several players who were granted the opportunity to win a first team slot have grabbed it with both hands and may not be letting go. The likes of Dwyer, Williams, Sinclair, Keeffe, J.Thomas and Grundy have performed above expectations in the last few weeks to the point where you can't see them losing their place in the senior team. Of course Brodie Grundy has stolen all the limelight, being the first selected player in the draft and contesting so well against experienced and classy rucks, but he's not the only one who has shown that this club has a massive future. The game plan at Collingwood is also coming along well, with less turnovers but a willingness to use the centre corridor more in one game than they did in an entire season under Mick Malthouse. Just now is the more attacking game plan showing signs of effectiveness. This weekend the Pies face a real nemesis, a side that they have struggled to beat since it won the 2008 premiership. The last four times Collingwood has played the Hawks, it's been ugly from a Magpies perspective so this becomes the ultimate test. The Pies won't make many changes at selection, if any, so it then becomes who matches up on who in that dangerous Hawks forward line. Lachie Keeffe may well get the first shot at restricting Lance "Buddy" Franklin, and the inexperienced defender has played on him before, back in round 1 2012 and was decent, without being great. Nathan Brown is likely to take Jarryd Roughead which leaves Jack Gunston, Breust and Rioli for the rest of the Pies backline to handle. You'd think this is where the game will be won or lost but the Hawks have been struggling in the midfield, especially in that loss to the Tigers, and this Pies midfield is as good as any in the competition at the moment. Collingwood will look to dominate in the middle and stop the ball from getting down to that worrying Hawks forward line as much as possible. It's testing time for Collingwood, time to see if they really are back. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS The Hawks don't sit on top of the AFL ladder by chance, they have earned the right to sit there through 19 games of tough, hard, skilful football. Most weekends, the Hawks merely over power their opponents, and rarely do they play a purely defensive game style like some of the other finalists do, they attack and they attack in waves. They have the best forward line in the AFL, of that there is almost no argument and over the past few seasons have recruited well to fill gaps that have been exposed during the finals. Last year of course they missed out on a massive opportunity to add to their 2008 premiership when they lost a Grand Final to the Swans in a game they started favourites in, but you get the feeling that lost has given this group the motivation it needs to go all the way this season. The loss to the Tigers two weeks back was only the third this season, and only the second club the Hawks had lost to, so it's pretty clear to see that this Hawthorn line up is still very formidable indeed. The Hawthorn forward line is obviously the team's area of strength, as it has been for a significant period of time. Of course it's led by two of the best key position forwards in the AFL, Lance "Buddy" Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, both capable of destroying teams in any given game. They are more than ably assisted by Jack Gunston, who plays the role of third key forward most weeks, Cyril Rioli who most sides are simply scared of and Luke Breust who acts as that surprise forward that sides sometimes forget about. Paul Puopolo also plays forward the majority of the time, but he hasn't had as he may have in the past, as shown by his return of less then a goal a game this year. The Hawks also have plenty of goal kicking midfielders that add to the scoreboard but it's this forward line up that most teams are unable to handle. This is the area of the ground that Hawthorn will look to dominate against a Pies backline that is missing Alan Toovey and is using Ben Reid more up forward than back. If the Hawks can get it inside 50 as much as the Pies can, then the Magpies defense will be truly tested this week, and how it stands up may well decide this game. The Hawks midfield has been struggling a little bit of late, with the Tigers absolutely smashing them in the defeat two weeks ago. The form or premiership player Brad Sewell has been the greatest concern as he's found himself struggling to the point where he has been omitted several times this season. Statistically though, apart from that one game against Richmond the Hawks central brigade is still one of the best in the AFL. They rank second for centre clearances and a respectable 8th for total clearances and contested possessions. Any midfield that is led my Mitchell, Burgoyne and Hodge still has a capacity to compete, and defeat most oppositions when it comes to getting first hands on the ball. The Hawks ruck set up has this myth about it, that it's not very good yet it sits 8th (a familiar statistical rating it seems) which is much better than the Pies, who continue to have the least hitouts of anyone in the AFL. Youngster Brodie Grundy has seen to improve the Pies in that area though, so it will be interesting to see how he goes against a probable ruck combination of Hale and Bailey. The Pies midfield is their strength, and simply put it's the area of the ground they must dominate if they are to break their losing streak against the Hawks. The Hawks backline came under some criticism after last year's finals series, and the club reacted by going out and getting a big name full bake in Brian Lake from the Bulldogs. When fit Lake is without doubt one of the best attacking defenders in the AFL and already has formed a partnership with Josh Gibson that has improved the Hawks backline. Along with these two Ben Stratton keeps on improving to a point where the Hawthorn backline is no longer an apparent weakness. This week their backline will have to deal with an entirely different Collingwood forward set up than what they've seen in the past, with Ben Reid and Jamie Elliott now as dangerous as Travis Cloke. Cloke is a beast who still gives Hawks fans nightmares about that fateful 2011 preliminary final when he simply carried the Pies back into the game, and eventually Hawks. The Pies forward line isn't quite as efficient and scary as the Hawks version, but if the Pies midfield can deliver it cleanly and more often inside the attacking zone the Pies may this time score enough to get over the line. This is a heavyweight clash, and you get the feeling both sets of players are really looking forward to a genuine test just 3 weeks out from the finals. The Hawks won't hold back, they can't if they want to secure a top 2 spot and a guaranteed home match in week one of finals series. They are almost certain to get Franklin back but Luke Hodge may have to wait one more week to get over that thumb injury. Hawthorn will go into this game confident that it can beat Collingwood, but it's a different Pies outfit than they faced back in round 3 so they'll have to be on their game or else. TIP Hawthorn will start favourites for this game, and deservedly so as they sit 1st, and the Pies sit back in 5th yet it's Collingwood who come into the game with all the momentum. The weather may play a part too with very strong winds and rain forecast for Friday night, although it's not too often that the weatherman is accurate this far out. If it is wild and wet it favours Collingwood, there is no doubt about that at all as the Pies destroyed Essendon in the wet the day after the Tigers did the same to the Hawks in similar conditions. Hawthorn's forward line is where this game will be won or lost in my opinion, and it's all got to do with how often, and how accurate the ball delivery is from the Hawthorn midfielders. If the Pies can place the Hawks under the type of intense pressure they placed on the Bombers and Swans then it might be Collingwood who come out of this game with a win, rather than the flag favourites. PIES BY 13 POINTS. SUMMARY Off the back of impressive wins over Essendon and the Sydney Swans that have propelled them back into top four contention, the Magpies will try to keep their momentum going against top-of-the-ladder Hawthorn – a team they have struggled to contain over the past two seasons. The Hawks have been flat for the past fortnight – with a loss to Richmond and an uninspiring 46-point victory over lowly St Kilda – but will be up for this game as they seek to shore up their hold on a home qualifying final. We can expect a September-like atmosphere as 75,000-plus fans pack the MCG and players from both teams go all out to win. LAST FIVE TIMES R3, 2013, Hawthorn 22.13 (145) d Collingwood 13.12 (90) at the MCG QF, 2012, Hawthorn 20.15 (135) d Collingwood 15.7 (97) at the MCG R17, 2012, Hawthorn 21.12 (138) d Collingwood 13.13 (91) at the MCG R1, 2012, Hawthorn 20.17 (137) d Collingwood 16.19 (115) at the MCG PF, 2011, Collingwood 10.8 (68) d Hawthorn 9.11 (65) at the MCG THE SIX POINTS 1. When these two teams met earlier this season, Collingwood had the better of the early going – leading by 22 points during the second quarter – before Hawthorn found top gear and raced away to a 55-point win. Luke Hodge was the star for the victors, gathering 31 disposals and booting two goals, while Lance Franklin kicked four and Jarryd Roughead three. Travis Cloke kicked five goals for the Magpies, with Dane Swan collecting 33 disposals. 2. The Hawks have not lost to Collingwood since having their hearts broken in the 2011 preliminary final. In every one of the four clashes since, they have piled on at least 20 goals, as the Magpies have struggled to contain Alastair Clarkson's multi-pronged forward line. Collingwood's three-point preliminary final triumph was one of only three wins against Hawthorn from 12 attempts since the start of 2007. 3. Franklin is set to return to the Hawthorn line-up this week, having missed last Friday night's win over the Saints with hamstring tightness. The four-time All Australian and No.1 ranked forward in the Official AFL Player Ratings has feasted on Collingwood throughout his career, booting 50 goals from 12 matches at a rate of 4.17 per game. He has polled 12 Brownlow Medal votes from 10 home and away matches against the Magpies. 4. With Franklin and Roughead at one end and Travis Cloke at the other, neither team should have trouble finding a target up forward. The Hawks are ranked No.1 for marks inside 50 this season, averaging 15 per game, while the Magpies are second with 14.2 a game. It means a big job for each team's key defenders, with Brian Lake new to the Hawthorn line-up since last time these teams met, and Lachie Keeffe back from his knee injury and performing solidly for Nathan Buckley's team. 5. The centre square battle will also be key. Hawks vice-captain Jordan Lewis this week described Collingwood's on-ball brigade as one of the AFL's "premium" midfields, and with good reason. Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams and Luke Ball all gathered more than 30 disposals against the Swans last Saturday night, continually driving the ball their team's way. Countering that strength will be a focus for the Hawks, who have lost the contested possession count in each of the past two weeks. 6. Beams has been key to the Magpies' recent resurgence, averaging 31 disposals and 6.2 clearances in his five games since returning from a 15-week quad injury. Only Swan and Gary Ablett have averaged more disposals than Beams per game in 2013, and he's ranked equal-fifth for clearances. .... the Magpies look as dangerous as any other team in the competition at the moment. It all started against Essendon for the Magpies when that ferocious intensity and pressure on the opposition, the traits that made the Pies so good in 2010 and 2011, returned to a level probably unseen since those days. The Magpies destroyed the hapless Bombers by 79 points and then last Saturday night in Sydney followed that up with a win over the reigning premiers, the Swans by 29 points. At this very moment the Magpies are one of, if not the team no one wants to face in week one of the finals series.
SportsMatt
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Nonetheless, the eyes of the football world will be on the MCG this Friday night in the round 21 clash between the top of the table Hawks and the in-form Magpies. The last fortnight has shown how quickly things can change in football. After a loss to Gold Coast and an unconvincing win against Greater Western Sydney, the Magpies were written off as a genuine threat to the top sides in the competition. However, big wins over Essendon and Sydney in consecutive weeks has well and truly quashed any ideas that Collingwood is no longer a force. Despite the two wins, you get the feeling however that Collingwood needs to prove itself against the Hawks. Hawthorn has had Collingwood's measure over the last two years and plays a brand of football that has traditionally worried Nathan Buckley's men. But if Collingwood can beat the Hawks this Friday night, then it has beaten three of the top four sides in the competition and must be considered a real chance to win the premiership in 2013. Despite comfortably sitting in top spot on the ladder, Hawthorn has had an up-and-down fortnight. Following a 41-point loss to Richmond in round 19, many expected the Hawks to come out firing against St Kilda last round. Despite a solid 46-point victory, I felt that the Hawks were unconvincing and struggled to put away a determined Saints outfit. With three weeks to go until the finals, coach Alastair Clarkson will be looking to get his side back to its best and start building some momentum. He will welcome back a number of key players in the upcoming weeks, which will help the cause. The Hawks were the dominant side in 2012 but fell agonisingly short in the Grand Final, so Clarkson knows that his side must hit top gear when it counts. Weather could play a factor with strong winds predicted. Hawthorn has been able to cut up the Collingwood defence in the past few encounters through precision passing. The weather could therefore be a factor, as strong blustery conditions may affect the skill level in the match. When these sides last met back in round three, Collingwood actually skipped away to a 22-point lead in wet conditions. When the weather dried up, the Hawks took full control. Therefore, I don't think Buckley would mind if he sees wet and windy conditions on Friday night. Recent History Since the Preliminary Final loss to Collingwood in 2011, the Hawks have gone on to win the next four encounters by an average of 40 points. Hawthorn has scored an average of 138 points in these games, with its forward line proving far too much for the Magpies to handle. In round three earlier this year, a 15-goal to six second half ensured a 55-point victory to the Hawks. Luke Hodge was at his best with 31 disposals and two goals, while Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead kicked four and three goals respectively. The goals were also well shared by Shaun Burgoyne and Luke Breust who also kicked three each and Bradley Hill was dangerous with two. Grant Birchall was also very good with 28 disposals off half back and Sam Mitchell continued his dominance over Collingwood with 27 disposals. For the Magpies, Dane Swan was prominent with 33 disposals while Cloke proved too big and strong with five goals. In fact, Cloke has kicked 11 goals in his past two games against the Hawks. Jamie Elliott continued his strong early season form with three goals. At the Selection Table For the first time in over two years, Collingwood went in unchanged into last week's clash against Sydney. The same thing may happen again this week, although there are a number of players at VFL level pressing for selection. In particular, Buckley again has a conundrum when picking his preferred ruck division. Brodie Grundy continued his strong form and did a great job on Mike Pyke and Shane Mumford in only his third game but the availability of Darren Jolly will give Buckley something to think about. I feel that Jolly is most likely to resume at VFL level to build match fitness. Having played three very physical opening games, the temptation will also be to freshen up Grundy, in which case Jarrod Witts or Ben Hudson are on standby. Also in strong form at VFL level are Paul Seedsman, Kyle Martin and Andrew Krakouer. Alan Didak missed last week's VFL game but has also been in good touch and is still very keen to break back into the side. In further positive news, Dale Thomas looks set to return from injury at VFL level in a late bid to return to the senior team before finals. Clinton Young still remains a fortnight away. Turning focus onto Hawthorn, and the return of 'Buddy' Franklin will be the major talking point. An already potent forward line will be boosted by Franklin's presence, and this will really stretch a Collingwood defence that has struggled to deal with talls over the past few rounds. Also on the selection radar will be Luke Hodge, Grant Birchall and Max Bailey, all who face fitness tests following injury. Liam Shiels returned through the VFL last week and put in a strong performance. He may be recalled to perform a tagging job on one of Collingwood's gun midfielders. Others on the injury list and therefore unavailable for this week's game include Matthew Suckling, Xavier Ellis and Ryan Schoenmakers. Focus on Collingwood There is a lot to like about the way Collingwood has performed over the past fortnight. Most pleasing is the fact that Buckley has been able to work with a settled midfield. Last round, the fab four of Luke Ball, Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dayne Beams all had over 30 possessions and dominated the Sydney midfield, which is widely regarded as the best in the competition. The availability of these four stars has meant that Harry O'Brien and Steele Sidebottom have been able to play more on a wing or across half back, while Jarryd Blair looks comfortable as a forward pocket. Brent Macaffer has added the defensive balance, doing successful tagging jobs on Dyson Heppell and Kieren Jack in the last two rounds. The availability of Lachlan Keeffe has also allowed Ben Reid to play purely as a forward. This has given the Collingwood forward line a whole new dimension. The one concern though for Nathan Buckley would be the fact that power forwards have been getting a stranglehold of Collingwood this year. In particular, Jeremy Cameron and Kurt Tippett kicked seven and six goals respectively. Reid's presence in the forward line is having significant scoreboard impact, but this may be neutralised by his absence down back. Reid's ability to float through a pack and take an intercept mark is missing. If Reid is to stay forward, the Magpies will need more from Nick Maxwell and Tyson Goldsack in terms of assistance for Nathan Brown and Keeffe. This is a challenge against the Hawthorn forward line as every player is so dangerous and it is a big risk to peel off to assist with someone else's man. Dane Swan – Typically I don't write about Dane Swan because his numbers speak for themself. However, I think his form has been particularly good over the past fortnight and he has proved very damaging. With an average of 31.6 disposals and close to a goal a game, Swan remains one of the premier midfielders in the competition and he looks even more comfortable with Ball and Beams there to help out. He looks very focused and has had more score assists than any other Magpie this year, which underlines his importance to the team. Tyson Goldsack – Many underestimate how valuable Goldsack is. I get the feeling, however, that Buckley is very appreciative to have him back in the side. With Reid up forward, Goldsack is playing an important role down back, playing on tall or small opponents. Buckley is so confident in Goldsack that he was willing to substitute Nathan Brown out of the game at a critical time last week and give Goldsack the task of minding Sydney's other tall forwards. He may be an outside chance to line up next to Franklin this week given the fact Buddy kicks a lot of his goals at ground level and has not taken too many contested marks in his most recent games. Otherwise, he is also a decent match up for players such as Breust or Jack Gunston. The great thing about Goldsack is that Buckley could also swing him forward and rotate with Ben Reid as a Plan B. Josh Thomas – The young Magpie has had a wretched run with injury over his first few years at the club. However, he has turned it around in 2013 and has repaid the patience the club has shown in him. He has managed 15 games this season, averaging 18 possessions per game. His match last week against Sydney was perhaps his best to date, kicking two crucial goals from 21 disposals. It was a new role for Thomas, playing more as a forward flanker. In this role, he is expected to put on significant defensive pressure. He combined well with Jarryd Blair and Jamie Elliott in this role. However, his real value is his explosiveness from contested situations and his good goal sense. With Dale Thomas, Andrew Krakouer and Alan Didak all pressing for selection leading into finals, Josh Thomas knows he needs to maintain his form to keep in the side. To date, he has earned his spot and has given Collingwood supporters a lot to be excited about over the next few years. Collingwood has recognised this and signed him up to a new contract this week which should give the youngster a boost considering it has been a big effort to get his body right and break into the side. Jarryd Blair – The little man has been asked to play a midfield role this year and he has given his all week, in week out. However, with the midfield now close to full strength, Blair looks right at home as a small forward. He kicked two goals last week but was also a part of so many others. His tackling pressure sets the standard. At the beginning of the year, I thought that Collingwood's biggest weakness seemed to be the lack of dangerous small forward options. The presence of Blair up forward along with Elliott has given Collingwood a new dimension. In particular, the defensive pressure has been turned right up, and Blair is also a very clever crumber and reader of the play. Focus on Hawthorn Without doubt, Hawthorn is the most talented team in the competition with star quality across every line. The defence has been significantly bolstered by Brian Lake while the injection of young players like Hill has added spark to the midfield. The forward line remains the main strength with the perfect balance of talls and smalls and Breust and Gunston fitting in somewhere in between. The Hawks rank number one in the competition for marks inside 50, although Collingwood ranks closely behind in second. Hawthorn's other key is the run out of defence and ability to pinpoint its way through a zone defence. With precision left foot kicks all over the field, it is near impossible to beat Hawthorn in a shootout where both sides have space to work with. The only way to beat the Hawks is to stop this free flowing movement and restrict the forward 50 entries. Even when restricting these entries, Hawthorn are so efficient when the ball in up forward and have so many options to score. Nonetheless, the one area where Hawthorn has looked particularly vulnerable over the past fortnight has been through the middle. The Hawks aren't the quickest side through the midfield, and key players such as Mitchell, Sewell, Hodge and Burgoyne are all around the 30-year-old age bracket. Hawthorn has lost the contested possession statistic over the past two weeks and could only break even with St Kilda in stoppage clearances. Lance Franklin – With the big man almost certain to return this week, Buckley will be left with the massive challenge of finding a way to stop him. If Essendon is Franklin's bunny team, then Collingwood comes a very close second with the spearhead kicking 50 goals from his last 12 matches against the Pies. He was yet again influential in round three when these sides last met kicking four goals. Franklin has managed to kick 47 goals even though Alistair Clarkson's use of him has been different this year, with Buddy often playing a decoy role to create space for the in-form Jarryd Roughead. Jarryd Roughead – Despite the fact Buddy has been kicking less goals, Roughead has well and truly taken the mantle of Hawthorn's number one key forward. With 59 goals for the year, he is a favourite for the Coleman Medal and is proving a handful for every defence he comes up against. He is so hard to stop as he can go into the ruck, play through the midfield or also play deep in the goal square. He is so agile for a big guy yet he is also a strong contested mark. He is likely to get the job on Nathan Brown this week who has had a roller-coaster ride with key big men over the past month. Otherwise, he will square off against Lachlan Keeffe who has looked good one-on-one with key forwards so far. Luke Breust – In my opinion, Breust is one of the most underrated players in the competition. He is one of Hawthorn's leading goal assist players whilst also kicking 31 goals of his own this year. He also average four tackles a game, many of which are in the forward 50. He is a difficult match-up as he can play through the midfield but he has such a good goal sense. He is another Hawk with a good record against Collingwood. The Magpies defenders must be careful not to give Breust too much latitude, as he will hit the scoreboard regularly. Sam Mitchell – It is hard to write a preview about Hawthorn and Collingwood without mentioning Sam Mitchell. The prime Hawthorn midfielder continues to be one of the most consistent players in the AFL and has a particular liking for the Magpies. Collingwood has not had a designated tagger over the past few years and Mitchell has often dined out on the Collingwood midfield, averaging 30 disposals in his past four matches against the Magpies. It often feels as if Mitchell is beating Collingwood by himself as he dominates the clearances and feeds it out to his fellow midfielders constantly. Mitchell has spent more time across half back this year, averaging 28 disposals a match. When Clarkson needs grunt in the midfield, he still turns to Mitchell to provide that. For mine, Buckley will no doubt use Macaffer as a defensive tagger on Mitchell this week to try and curb his influence. If Mitchell starts at half back, expect Macaffer to start there as well considering Macaffer is an accomplished mid-sized forward. The Wrap Up A lot will depend on the midfield battle. With such a potent forward line, Hawthorn only needs to break even around stoppages and the forwards will do the rest. Collingwood's star-studded midfield needs to lead from the front. However, winning the midfield battle is only part of the challenge. Once the ball is inside 50, the Magpies need to either score efficiently (meaning the forwards needs to have their kicking boots on!) or lock it in and allow the midfielders to kick stoppage goals. If Collingwood's forward line is unable to contain Hawthorn's rebound out of defence, then any ascendency it will gain through the middle will count for little. On paper, Collingwood matches up well with Hawthorn's forward line. However, the Hawks are the masters at spreading the Magpie defenders and ensuring one on one battles. Therefore, Collingwood's best form of defence is again to win the midfield battle and ensure Hawthorn's ball movement is restricted. This will in turn ensure enough defenders can get back to guard the space. Collingwood by 11. LAST TIME: Hawthorn 22.13 (145) def. Collingwood 13.12 (90), Round 3, 2013 at the MCG WALKING WOUNDED: The Hawks look set to regain star forward Lance Franklin after he missed last week with hamstring tightness. Luke Hodge (thumb) and Grant Birchall (knee) both face fitness tests, but it's unlikely they will be risked. Liam Shiels made a successful return from an ankle injury in the VFL and will come into contention. That leaves the ladder leaders with an almost full list to choose from with only long-term casualties Matt Suckling and Ryan Schoenmakers unavailable. The Pies suffered no new injuries last week, but still have a number of experienced players trying to gain match fitness ahead of the finals. Darren Jolly has resumed training and may feature in the VFL this week, while Dale Thomas could also make his long-awaited return in the reserves. Clinton Young is still a fortnight away and probably won't be seen again this season. FORM: The Hawks barely got out of second gear last week as they easily accounted for St Kilda. It was a welcome return to winning form after their shock loss to Richmond the week before. They remain on top of the ladder and for good reason with Geelong (twice) the only other team they have lost to this year. The Pies are hitting peak form at the right time of the year with last week's convincing win over Sydney their best of the season. That followed on from the thumping victory over Essendon the week before. Collingwood have now strung three wins in a row since their shock loss to Gold Coast and are looking like being a real threat come finals. WE THINK: Three weeks ago you would have penned Hawthorn in for an easy win, but Collingwood have shown tremendous improvement and will definitely make a game of it. The Hawks are trucking along nicely as they gear up for another finals campaign and with the return of Lance Franklin they rightfully claim the favourites tag. They also have the wood over the Pies and have amazingly kicked over 20 goals in their past four meetings. The addition of Dayne Beams to Collingwood's midfield has certainly added an extra dimension and with Luke Hodge set to miss for the Hawks then the Pies definitely have the edge in the guts. But with Jarryd Roughead in Coleman Medal form and Buddy showing flashes of his best in recent weeks, you can't see the Pies outscoring the Hawks. Hawthorn by 27 points. |
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