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It's almost finals time in the 2013 AFL premiership season with round 23 finally upon us. It's the last round of the home and away season and Collingwood and North Melbourne matchup at the MCG on Sunday both finding themselves well and truly alive. The Magpies are certain of being involved in their 8th consecutive finals series while the Kangaroos need a lot of things to go their way if they are to make the finals for the second season in a row. It's highly likely that the Pies will finish 6th and face off against Port Adelaide in week one of the finals, a game that they'd start favourites in for sure. North on the other hand need a string of results to go their way, and not all of those are on the field. The Roos need both Carlton and Brisbane to lose but they also required Essendon to be knocked out of the finals as punishment, something that only became official on Tuesday night. With Essendon out of the equation, if North were to pull of a victory this weekend over the Pies, they'd sneak into 8th spot and likely play Richmond if the other results fell their way. It's a long and complicated set of scenarios but by the time this game starts on Sunday afternoon the equation will be clearer for both teams. Since these two clubs last met back in round one (Collingwood came away with a 16 point lead) they have been through a range of challenges and hurdles that have ultimately left their fans to a large degree disappointed. Collingwood considered themselves a genuine premiership contender yet due to injuries and a somewhat changing of the guard they now sit outside the all important top four. The Magpies learned early on that they weren't going to have some of their best players available for large periods of the season so youngsters and newcomers were given opportunities galore. Some of those new faces have flourished while others have struggled but the Pies are arguably right now in their best form of their season. North Melbourne also have had a season of struggles, with injuries and the under performance of some of their big names leaving them languishing in 11th spot at the moment. In a normal season this game would be a dead rubber between a finals side that probably can't move forward and a team no longer with any goals to achieve. Thanks to Essendon though this isn't a normal season so come 3.20pm on Sunday afternoon the Kangaroos may be playing for a spot in the finals after all. PREVIOUS FORM North has under achieved this season, yet a few weeks back, after wins against Melbourne and Geelong it seemed as if the Roos were going to make a late charge for the finals. Recent losses to Adelaide and Hawthorn (with an easy win against Essendon sandwiched in between) means that the Kangaroos fate is basically out of their control now. The win against Geelong was probably a season high and came at a time when their fans needed hope that their season wasn't going to end prematurely. In that game North showed exactly what they are capable of on their day and that's probably why most football pundits are so disappointed in where they currently sit on the ladder. Last week they took on the ladder leading Hawks and another upset seemed on the cards as North led by 26 points early in the second quarter, but from then on the Hawks took control to eventually fight back and win by 14 points. It was no disgrace to lose to the Hawks like that but once again North had given up a lead and lost a game, something that has become far too familiar in season 2013. Collingwood has been a fascinating case study in season 2013, a team that at the start of the year was a premiership threat and even now could compete, and probably defeat just about anyone in the competition. Their recent form shows this with wins over Essendon, Sydney and the Eagles and a highly competitive loss against the Hawks despite circumstances being against them (back to back 6 day breaks). After that loss to the Hawks the Pies top 4 chances ended yet they bounced straight back to form with a stunning first quarter against the struggling West Coast Eagles last Friday night. The Pies opened the game in awesome fashion eventually taking an 8 goal to 2 lead at the first break. The rest of the game didn't quite reach the same level but the highlight of the 62 point win for most at the ground, and watching on TV was the return of Alan Didak. Didak came on as the sub midway through the third term and when he ran into an open goal and converted late in the last quarter the entire Magpie crowd were on their feet, and every Pies player ran to him in one of the best moments of 2013 so far. Didak has struggled in 2013 with both personal and fitness issues but it was great to see the whole club react that way to the return of the premiership champion. It was a win that ensured Collingwood would get a home final also. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW While on the surface it would seem to be a disappointing season for the Collingwood Football Club, 2013 has turned into somewhat of a rebuilding year for the Magpies. The Pies have used 40 players in their senior side in 2013, more than the likes of Gold Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda. The game plan at the club is also starting to come together as senior coach Nathan Buckley puts his brand on a list that for so long belonged to Mick Malthouse. The Pies are more attacking now, they are willing to use the corridor when they have the opportunity to, but their pressure and tackling is still vital to their success each week. Over the past four weeks the Magpies intensity both at the ball and at the opposition has been noticeably higher than it has been for all of this season, and that's a great sign on the eve of the finals. The recent wins over Essendon and Sydney and the ruthless way that the Pies put the Eagles away showed that this side really is nearing it's top available form right now. North should be a great test for the Pies too and a tough, hard game may be exactly what they need leading into an elimination final. At the selection table this week Collingwood has a few options with Dayne Beams, Jamie Elliott and Ben Sinclair all likely to be fit to return after missing last weekend's win over the Eagles. Luke Ball was subbed out for Alan Didak in that game with calf soreness but from all reports the tough midfielder will be ready to go also. That means there's some tough decision to be made with three players having to be omitted from the 22 that played last Friday night. Those to come under pressure will include Paul Seedsman, Sam Dwyer, Alan Didak and Ben Kennedy and there's still the chance that anyone who isn't 100% may be rested just one week out from the finals. It's a nice problem to have, possessing so many players who could be in the final 22 but having to make some hard decisions at selection. There are two side stories to this weeks game for Collingwood and the first one is long overdue in the eyes of most Magpie fans. Brodie Grundy, the most impressive young ruckman in the league, finally got his rising star nomination (round 22 nomination) after several top quality games against some of the best ruckman in the AFL. The young South Australian was taken with pick 18 in last year's draft but may well turn out to be the absolute steal of last years' draft stock for sure. The second extra to this game revolves around Travis Cloke and the fight for the Coleman medal, the award given to the leading goal kicker in the AFL. Coming into the final round Cloke trails Hawthorn's Jarryd Roughead by just 3 goals, and it's Cloke on Sunday who will get last crack at any total as he is only real contender playing on Sunday. It just adds something extra to a game that already has so much riding on it. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS It's been a below par season for North Melbourne in 2013 so far, but with a bit of luck they still could be playing finals. If they happen to defeat Collingwood this week and the other results fall their way, there's an argument to be made that they would be the toughest of the possible eighth placed teams to face in week one of the finals. North have set a record this year for losses under 16 points and have given up leads so often that the defensive of their game has come into question at times. There's no doubting this side is talented but it really does struggle to defend against an opponent who gets on a roll, with comparisons to the Richmond sides of the past probably being apt. Amongst all the heartbreaking losses though there has been hope for the future with the club's self admittance that they do possess one of the best young lists in the AFL. North Melbourne's midfeld has been a strength for them in 2013 with the club ranked 4th for both clearances and centre clearances. Having one of the best ruck divisions in the AFL also helps with Todd Goldstein in contention for the All Australian ruck role. North currently sit 3rd for hitouts for but more importantly they have conceded the least amount of hitouts against, a stat that shows Goldstein's improvement this year. The midfield brigade is deep and talented with Bastinac, Swallow (injured), Adams, Ziebell, Wells, Cunnington, Harvey and Greenwood all playing on the ball at different times. Of course they run into one of the most talented midfields in the competition this week with Beams, Ball, Swan, Pendlebury and co likely to test the limits of the Kangaroos midfield. North should dominate the ruck although every week youngster Brodie Grundy has continued to step up and match it with the best rucks in the AFL and off a 9 day break you'd think the young star might improve even further. This won't be where the game is won or lost because neither side will have a distinct advantage. The Kangaroos backline may well be their biggest weakness this week with the absence of Scott Thompson and Nathan Grima greatly effecting their ability to defend effectively. Thompson is the big loss as he may well have even been in All Australian contention before a lung injury ruled him out for the rest of the home and away season a few weeks back. In his absence the likes of Delaney, Hansen and Firrito will be given the task of restricting the Pies three tall forwards Cloke, Lynch and Reid. Reid is the one that has changed the Magpies forward line in recent weeks with most teams unable to fins a matchup for the agile former All Australian centre half back. Collingwood's small forwards aren't as dangerous as most teams and North will feel confident in restricting their influence, but if the ball is delivered more often into the Pies forward zone than the Roos it's hard to see this backline standing up and holding on effectively. North Melbourne's forward line is dangerous and also has it's own three pronged attack with Lindsay Thomas (50 goals), Drew Petrie (46 goals) and Aaron Black (31 goals) all capable of kicking a bag if they aren't defended well for an entire game. Black has stepped in this season and assisted Thomas and Petrie, both who it could be argued are having their best season as forwards in their AFL careers. The Pies backline has also struggled at times to contain dangerous opposition forward lines but the improvement of youngsters Lachlan Keeffe and Marley Williams has assisted the older brigade in the absence of the ever reliable defender Alan Toovey. If North can move the ball quickly inside their forward 50 they may be able to put enough pressure on the Magpie defenders to post a score that will be hard to beat indeed. North Melbourne will be wanting to win this game even if their chances of finals action are dead by Sunday and to do that they will have to defend more effectively than they have at times this season. Leigh Adams is a chance to return and forward Robbie Tarrant has been cleared to play despite suffering a broken nose in last week's loss to the Hawks. The major problem seems to be how to stop Travis Cloke, as even in round one Thompson could only restrict him to 4 goals and with Thompson missing it's hard to see Cloke not dominating this game. Accuracy may be the answer for the Roos though as they sit third for goal kicking accuracy while the Pies are languishing down in 14th, and Cloke as we all know is a major reason for that. Either way the Roos as a club will want to finish the 2013 home and away season off in style, even if their chances of making finals are gone by the time this game starts. TIP It's a tough game to tip because of the situation that presents itself going into the final round. There's a lot of "ifs" that will play themselves out before the 3.20pm start time on Sunday and how they eventuate may well decide who comes out the more fired up in this game. If the Pies still have a chance of finishing 5th, and therefore avoiding a probable second week trip to Perth their motivation will be high but if the Tigers win on Saturday there's not much other than personal form to play for. North on the other hand obviously need two results to go their way before Saturday ends if they are to still be alive heading into Sunday. If both the Blues and Lions lose North will be fired up but you have to still believe that Collingwood are the superior side and at the MCG they should head into the finals in style with a win by a small margin. PIES BY 11 POINTS. |
North Melbourne is one of five clubs battling for Essendon's place in the final eight. To qualify, the Roos need Carlton and Brisbane to lose on Saturday before overcoming Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday. It puts a whole new spin on Collingwood's own preparation for September but ensures that the Pies will enjoy the perfect tune up for the first week of the finals. Head-to-Head Collingwood: 102 North Melbourne: 49 Drawn: 2 Past Five Round 1 2013 Collingwood 15.13 (103) North Melbourne 13.9 (87) Goals – Collingwood: Cloke 4, Sidebottom 3, Goldsack 2, Lynch 2, Macaffer, Blair, Pendlebury, Swan North Melbourne: Thomas 4, Hansen 2, Cunnington, Petrie, Tarrant, Mullett, Bastinac, Gibson, Goldstein Disposals – Collingwood: Swan 31, Pendlebury 30, O'Brien 24, Sidebottom 21, Cloke 18, Maxwell 18, J.Thomas 18 North Melbourne: Swallow 34, Wells 25, Cunnington 23, Mullett 22, Bastinac 19, Firrito 19, Thompson 19, Ziebell 19 At Etihad Stadium Round 21 2012 Collingwood 8.13 (61) North Melbourne 13.13 (91) Goals – Collingwood: Beams 2, Didak, Fasolo, Tarrant, Sinclair, Blair, Pendlebury North Melbourne: Petrie 3, Tarrant 3, Thomas 3, Hansen 2, Ziebell, Garlett Disposals – Collingwood: Beams 38, D.Thomas 27, Sidebottom 26, Pendlebury 24, Blair 20 North Melbourne: Harvey 33, Gibson 28, Bastinac 25, Cunnington 24, Swallow 24 Brownlow: 3. S.Thompson (NM), 2. D.Beams (Coll), 1. T.Goldstein (NM) At Etihad Stadium Round 16 2011 Collingwood 22.15 (147) North Melbourne 3.12 (30) Goals – Collingwood: Sidebottom 4, Blair 3, D.Thomas 3, L.Brown 3, Swan 2, Cloke 2, Jolly, Wellingham, Shaw, Davis, Fasolo North Melbourne: Harvey 2, Goldstein Disposals – Collingwood: Swan 39, Pendlebury 29, D.Thomas 26, Shaw 25, Davis 22 North Melbourne: Wells 29, Ziebell 27, Rawlings 23, Swallow 23, Bastinac 17 Brownlow: 3. D.Swan (Coll), 2. L.Davis (Coll), 1. S.Sidebottom (Coll) At the MCG Round 2 2011 Collingwood 21.17 (56) North Melbourne 21.17 (143) Goals – Collingwood: Cloke 5, Beams 3, Dawes 2, Didak 2, Blair 2, Sidebottom 2, Krakouer, Pendlebury, Swan, D.Thomas, Jolly North Melbourne: Hansen 2, Thomas 2, Cunnington, Anthony, Goldstein Disposals – Collingwood: Swan 40, Pendlebury 39, D.Thomas 28, Sidebottom 27, Beams 26, Dawes 26 North Melbourne: Harvey 27, Rawlings 27, Adams 24, Grima 24, Wells 24 Brownlow: 3. D.Swan (Coll), 2. S.Pendlebury (Coll), 1. H.O'Brien (Coll) At Etihad Stadium Round 7 2010 Collingwood 23.19 (157) North Melbourne 14.7 (91) Goals – Collingwood: Sidebottom 5, Medhurst 3, Dawes 2, Jolly 2, Didak 2, Davis 2, Johnson, Toovey, Shaw, O'Bree, Cloke, Wood, D.Thomas North Melbourne: Thomas 3, Edwards 2, Hale 2, Wells 2, Warren 2, Harvey, Swallow, Garlett Disposals – Collingwood: Swan 38, Shaw 33, Didak 29, D.Thomas 29, Ball 28 North Melbourne: Rawlings 33, Harvey 32, Adams 25, Swallow 24, Anthony 23 Brownlow: 3. A.Didak (Coll), 2. D.Swan (Coll), 1. S.Sidebottom (Coll) At the MCG Stats and figures - Collingwood has enjoyed some remarkable success in front of goals against North Melbourne in recent years. The Magpies have kicked over 100 points in five of their last six meetings. In comparison, the Roos have never scored more than 91 points. You have to go back to round 16, 2008 to find a game in which the Kangas kicked more than 100 points against the Magpies. In fact, they've only done so three times since round six, 2000, something the Magpies have done 10 times. - The two clubs have met in the final round of the season on 14 occasions. Collingwood has won 11 of these encounters including the past five. They have never met in round 23. - The last time the Magpies faced North in the final round of the home and away season was in round 22, 2006. On an overcast afternoon at the MCG, the Pies were sluggish early and looked in danger of heading into the finals with a loss when it led by only eight points at half time. They eventually clicked into gear, kicking 10 goals in the final quarter to run out 68-point victors in Sav Rocca's final game of league football before heading off to pursue a career in American Football. - Many probably forget that current North Melbourne Brad Scott spent almost three years as an assistant to Mick Malthouse at Collingwood. Scott is one of the men credited with helping formulate a plan to use the interchange bench more effectively in the lead up to the 2007 finals series in which the Magpies came within a kick of the Grand Final. - Although North Melbourne ruled the football world in the 1990s, they often found the lowly Magpies difficult to overcome. Collingwood didn't make the finals between 1996 and 1999 (a period in which the Roos won two flags and lost another) but it fared well when pitted against Wayne Carey and his teammates. The Pies won three consecutive games between 1996-1997 and came within 13 points after leading by two goals at three quarter time in round 21, 1999. It was during this period that coach Tony Shaw would send Nathan Buckley to centre half back to combat Carey, a move that regularly produced good results. Swan watch It has seemingly escaped the public's attention all season, but Dane Swan could still be in the running for the Brownlow Medal – or at least a place in the top four or five. His recent history against North Melbourne suggests that he will be one of the men who catches the umpire's eyes. In his past five games against the Roos, Swan has averaged 36.2 disposals and has never dipped below 31. He polled nine votes in four games against them between 2009 and 2011 including two best on grounds in 2011. It should come as no surprise that he was an absentee in Collingwood's only loss to North in the past five years (round 21 last year). LAST TIME: Collingwood 15.13 (103) def. Richmond 13.9 (87), Round 1, 2013 at Etihad Stadium WALKING WOUNDED: The Pies won't see Alex Fasolo (foot), Martin Clarke (ankle), Dale Thomas (ankle) and Alan Toovey (knee) again this season, but are hopeful of regaining Dayne Beams (back) for this clash. Beams was a late withdrawal from the Collingwood side that beat West Coast last round and will be tested closer to game time. Luke Ball (calf), Ben Sinclair (shoulder), Clinton Young (hamstring) and Jamie Elliott (hamstring) will also need to pass fitness tests. The Kangaroos have delayed Nathan Grima's surgery to his foot and the key defender could still feature against the Pies. Andrew Swallow (Achilles) and Scott Thompson (lung) are definitely out, while Sam Wright (shoulder), Taylor Hine (ankle) and Robbie Tarrant (face) will need to pass fitness tests to be considered. FORM: The Pies were impressive in beating West Coast by 62 points last start, but have been rather inconsistent of late. We saw the best of them when they defeated Sydney and Essendon, but bad losses to Gold Coast and Hawthorn have scuppered any chance they had of finishing in the top-four. The Kangaroos currently sit in 11th place on the ladder, but Essendon's punishment during the week for the supplements saga means Brad Scott's side still has a chance to feature in September. Last week the Roos gave the Hawks a scare before going down by 14 points, while they defeated Essendon by 45 points the week before that. WE THINK: North have won just once away from Etihad Stadium in 2013 and we expect that trend to continue as the Pies head into the finals full of confidence. The Roos can sneak into the finals with a Carlton loss to Port Adelaide and a victory over the Pies, but they have had a poor season and don't really deserve to feature in September. They have won just nine of 21 in 2013, with five of their losses by less than a goal, and would only be making up the numbers if they snuck into the top eight. The Pies won't want to head into their finals campaign off a loss, so expect Nathan Buckley's men to be ready for a big performance. The Roos will provide some stiff opposition, but the Pies will prove too strong. Collingwood by 19 points. SUMMARY North Melbourne will know when it turns up on Sunday whether or not it is playing for a spot in the final eight. The finals carrot will dangle if both Carlton and the Brisbane Lions lose on Saturday. If a win will earn North Melbourne a finals berth then this game shapes as a classic. Either way it will be a tough pre-finals battle for Collingwood as North Melbourne is an exceptional attacking team. It's also worth noting Collingwood has won just one final round game since 2006, having beaten Essendon in the final round last season. In the Magpies favour is the fact the Kangaroos are without its best defenders and it has Travis Cloke inside 50. The Kangaroos' challenge is to apply enough midfield pressure to reduce his supply. This is a big task, given that the Collingwood midfield is classy and experienced in games with finals-like pressure. LAST FIVE TIMES R7, 2010, Collingwood 23.19 (157) d North Melbourne 14.7 (91) at the MCG R2, 2011, Collingwood 21.17 (143) d North Melbourne 7.14 (56) at Etihad Stadium R16, 2011, Collingwood 22.15 (147) d North Melbourne 3.12 (30) at the MCG R21, 2012, North Melbourne 13.13 (91) d Collingwood 8.13 (61) at Etihad Stadium R1, 2013, Collingwood 15.13 (103) d North Melbourne 13.9 (87) at Etihad Stadium THE SIX POINTS 1. Collingwood has dominated North Melbourne recently, winning five of the last six contests including four wins by more than 50 points. 2. The most recent time these teams met in the final home and away round was in 2006 at the MCG. Collingwood won by 68 points. It then lost every last round between 2007-2011. 3. Respective coaches Nathan Buckley and Brad Scott last clashed at the MCG in round 10, 2006 when playing for Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions. 4. Collingwood has had the most disposals this season averaging 383.8 per game. North Melbourne is 10th with 363.9 per game. 5. North Melbourne is the third ranked scoring side this season averaging 104 points per game. Collingwood is seventh with 97 points per game. 6. Collingwood has conceded the fifth least points in 2013. North Melbourne has conceded the seventh least points in 2013. |
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