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As the 2013 AFL Premiership season edges closer to the finals series, it gives us all a chance to reflect at the season that has come before us. Take the West Coast Eagles for example, a playing group that pre season were tipped by many not only as a top four chance, but as a genuine premiership contender. Many good judges had actually selected the Eagles as their premiership team for season 2013 yet after 21 rounds of action (20 games) West Coast sit in 11th place. The Eagles will not play finals this season and that’s a great shock to most. Then there’s Collingwood, yet another team that many good judges chose as a genuine premiership contender, yet the Magpies, who at least will partake in the finals series, have had a season of under achievement themselves. Collingwood currently sit sixth on the AFL ladder which is definitely a few places lower than what the club would have hoped for. Of course both clubs have excuses and reasons as to why they have fallen down the ladder this season but in the end, the ladder tells the story and both aren’t premiership threats. This Friday night, the two clubs get a chance to make some atonement for their season so far when they face off at the MCG in the round 22 opener. It will be the first time these twomassive clubs have faced off in 2013 which is itself another weird quirk of the AFL fixture. The last time these two sides met was also at the MCG, but under much different circumstances as they fought to avoid elimination in last years semi final. The Pies came out on top that night by 13 points in a tight game where one man was probably the difference, Dale Thomas. Thomas hasn’t played much since, in fact he’s only managed the 5 senior games in 2013 and last week broke down again while trying to return through the VFL. Injuries have been a major cause for the decline of both teams this season but realistically it’s not the only excuse, or reason. Both teams are at the cross roads with several of their more experienced players, with the likes of Didak, Johnson, Jolly, Krakouer and Hudson nearing the end for Collingwood while the Eagles have their own problems with Nicoski, Adam Selwood and Daniel Kerr. These problems though have meant that the clubs have tried plenty of youngsters and new players in 2013 and it is easy to see both teams fighting back hard next season. PREVIOUS FORM The Eagles have mixed their form all season and just when it seemed they may have been ready to make one last push at a spot in the eight, West Coast put up what might have been their most insipid performance of the season last week. The Cats smashed them from the first bounce, winning the first quarter by 4 goals and the second by even more to put the game to bed by half time with a 56 point lead. The final margin of 66 points may have even flattered the Eagles, that’s how bad they were at home last week. Before that they had given their fans some hope with wins over the Gold Coast Suns and Essendon yet any hope died early on during last weeks game. Rarely do you see the Eagles basically give up so easily at home and it’s increased calls from some quarters for coach John Worsfold’s head, although the club seems more likely to retain him. Maybe the only positive of the night was the performance from ex Magpie Sharrod Wellingham who was the Eagles best player on the night. Wellingham will help the Eagles for many years to come, and if their 2013 form is anything to go by they will need all the help they can get. The Magpies also gave their fans some hope leading into last weekend’s round with two wins over top quality opponents in Essendon and Sydney. Yet like the Eagles they were bought crashing back to earth as their nemesis, the side the Magpies just don’t seem to be able to beat, the Hawks, once again disposed of the Pies in pretty easy fashion by 35 points. Collingwood fans, and players alike went into the game with confidence a plenty after a great win over the reigning premiers in Sydney, yet early on the signs weren’t great as the Hawks piled on both the pressure and the score, to lead by almost 6 goals just before half time. Collingwood had their best period of the game just before the main break, kicking the last three goals to get the margin back to 15 points. After half time though the Hawks once again took over, starving the Collingwood forwards of scoring opportunities and the result was never really in doubt as the third quarter drew to an end. It was a loss that ended any faint hope that Collingwood had of a top four finish and may have all but ended their premiership dreams for 2013 as well. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW It’s been a tough year for Collingwood but may well be the year that we all look back on and see as the pivotal one in terms of their next premiership. Early in the season it became quite apparent that the Magpies would struggle to match it with the best sides, and apart from wins over Geelong and Sydney that has been true for the season so far. The Magpies have had their fair share of injuries, with Toovey, Thomas, Fasolo, Beams, Ball, Krakouer, Jolly, Keeffe and Williams all missing significant games but it has given plenty of young and upcoming players an opportunity to test themselves at senior level. Some have failed, some have starred while some are clearly developing before our eyes into stars of the future. It’s the path Collingwood had to take if it was to be a serious challenger for years to come although it may have come at the sacrifice of season 2013. The season isn’t over yet though and the Pies will play in their 8th consecutive finals series in a few weeks time, an achievement that is unmatched by any one else in the AFL at the moment. The positive of this season has been the emergence of some talented players with Keeffe, Williams, Elliott and Grundy now all firmly entrenched in the Magpies senior line up. This Friday night may see the introduction of a few more youngsters with injuries to Jamie Elliott (hamstring) and Ben Sinclair (shoulder) requiring at least two additions this week. On form Ben Kennedy and Paul Seedsman would be the most likely to replace those two, but there’s one familiar name that is making one last push for senior selection, maybe ever. Alan Didak was in the best players last week in the Magpies season saving VFL win and this is the closest Didak has come to claiming a spot back in the side since his last appearance back in round 11. Also in the VFL were ruckman Jolly, Hudson and Witts and with Quinten Lynch continuing to struggle at senior level one of those three may be included at the expense of the ex Eagle. The VFL side’s win over Sandringham kept it in contention for the finals and with a win in the final VFL game this Saturday, the Magpies will have a reserves side in action for at least one week longer than last year. This isn’t a must win game for the Magpies as it seems almost certain that they’ll finish 6th or 7th now, but if Richmond were to slip up at any point (again) the Pies could still finish 5th. Also it pays to enter the finals with a bit of form and if Collingwood can win it’s final 2 games it would have won 5 of it’s last 6 games, with the only loss coming to the premiership favourite. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS It’s been a tough year for the West Coast Eagles with injuries, form slumps and the beginning of the end for some players adding together for a wasted season. The list of Eagles players who have missed significant game time in 2013 is long, with Natanui (11 games played), Nicoski (0 games), Kerr (10 games), Waters (7), Wellingham (8), Hurn (12 – out for season now), LeCras (15 – out for season) among those affected. The current injury list has most of those names on it and all of those on the round 22 injury list have now been ruled out for the season. Added to that has been the less than stellar season of several senior players, as well as an un West Coast like home record. Even when the Eagles have struggled in seasons, Subiaco Oval has been a place where they could come home to and dominate at, yet the Eagles have lost a remarkable 8 games on their home ground this season. In fact their away record is better than their home record in season 2013. The Eagles still have an array of talent on their list and their forward line leads the way with a four pronged attack. Kennedy, Darling, LeCras and Hill have all contributed heavily to the Eagles scoring this year with Kennedy currently leading the Coleman Medal chase with 60 goals. When the Eagles have been able to get it inside their forward 50 they are a dangerous team indeed, and while the absence of Nic Natanui for long periods has restricted them a little bit, their forward line is still very effective. This week it runs into a Pies backline that does a nice impression of Jekyll and Hyde, one week it’s as good as any in the AFL and then the next week it’s leaking goals at an alarming rate. At one stage last week it looked as if the Hawks would post a massive total and even the 118 they ended up on was way too high for that defensive groups liking. If the Eagles can get the ball inside forward 50 enough, they could make a game of this one yet. If you go solely by statistics the Eagles midfield is still performing quite well, as it’s ranked 3rd for clearances, 6th for centre clearances and 7th for contested possessions. Yet in some games it’s seemed as if the Eagles midfield has struggled for large periods of the game to gain any ascendancy over their opponents. Champion ruckman Dean Cox is still going around for the Eagles, and while his best days may be behind him Cox has still carried the Eagles to the second most hitouts of any team so far this season. It’s an area that the Eagles will have to be very good at this week, coming up against a midfield that is in sparkling form, with Ball, Pendlebury, Beams, Swan and Sidebottom all gathering close to or over 30 possessions on a regular basis. Of course Cox should dominate the ruck, but it will be interesting to see if youngster Brodie Grundy is asked to carry the ruck duties or if the experienced Darren Jolly is included. The Eagles may well be missing several players through injury but apart from Kerr their midfield isn’t greatly affected by this, and should be assisting the rest of the team a bit more, even if the stats show a rosy picture. The Eagles backline may have been hardest hit by injuries this year with Hurn and Waters both missing a lot of football in 2013. Darren Glass has still been the rock down back and is almost certain to get Travis Cloke on Friday night, which will leave McKenzie or Mitch Brown to take Reid and the secondary ruck. Where Collingwood has improved recently though is finding goals from it’s small/medium forwards and midfielders and this may be an area that the Eagles find hard to restrict them in. The Eagles are also lacking that run off half back that makes the really good sides so strong, although with the missing players they have that’s not entirely a shock. West Coast have been using youngsters like Wilson and Carter to cover the loss and while they have shown promising signs, they aren’t near the level of Hurn and Waters yet. This may be the area of the ground that West Coast really need to lift in or else the Pies forwards may have a field day/night. It’s a tough game for the Eagles to get up for this weekend, their finals hopes are gone but there’s always pride as well as list places to play for. Coach John Worsfold stated just that in his weekly media conference that several players are playing for their careers in the closing rounds and with a long injury list of talented players hopeful of returning next season, you can see what Worsfold is on about. The Eagles injury list isn’t as long as some have been banging on about though and their fans will want to see them finish the season with a bit of fight, something that was missing for sure last Saturday night against the Cats. TIP Collingwood should win this game, they simply are the better team at the moment and have a lot more to play for. The Eagles will want to put up a better performance than last week but as soon as a club starts putting injured players out for the year, usually to get surgery done sooner rather than later, they seem to fall away on field. The Magpies do lose two players of their own to injury but I can’t see it making much difference, they should win this by plenty. PIES BY 38 POINTS. SUMMARY Collingwood's loss to Hawthorn on Friday night dashed its flickering hopes of a top four finish at the end of the home and away season, so the task facing the Pies is to win at least one more match to ensure they play their opening final in Melbourne. They should get the points here, with a week to prepare and playing at home, against a side on a short week having to travel across the country. West Coast was terribly disappointing in losing by 66 points to Geelong, ruling itself out of finals contention once and for all. This shaped as a Grand Final preview at the start of the season and it is hard to believe that after 22 weeks, it will count for virtually nought. LAST FIVE TIMES 1SF, 2012, Collingwood 10.13 (73) d West Coast 9.6 (60) at the MCG R22, 2012, West Coast 15.17 (107) d Collingwood 8.10 (58) at Patersons Stadium R13, 2012, Collingwood 12.13 (85) d West Coast 12.10 (82) at the MCG 1QF, 2011, Collingwood 12.10 (82) d West Coast 9.8 (62) at the MCG R10, 2011, Collingwood 16.9 (105) d West Coast 7.11 (53) at the MCG THE SIX POINTS 1. Collingwood and West Coast haven't played since last year's first semi-final, which the Magpies won by 13 points. 2. The Magpies have dominated the Eagles recently winning eight of the last nine contests including a club record seven straight wins from 2007-12. 3. This will be the 43rd clash between the sides, with the Eagles holding a 21-20 edge. There has been one draw. 4. This will be only the second time in history Collingwood and West Coast have played a Friday night blockbuster at the MCG. 5. The game could be won and lost in the ruck - West Coast is ranked second for hit-outs this season compared to Collingwood, which is ranked last. 6. Magpie pair Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan remain comfortably ensconced in the top 10 of the Official AFL Player Ratings. If Nic Naitanui (ranked 12) doesn't play, the next best-ranked West Coast player will be Shannon Hurn at No.30. |
In years gone by, this game would be considered a dead-rubber considering Collingwood can no longer make the top four yet is also secure in the top eight, and West Coast is mathematically out of contention for a top eight position. However, there is still a chance Collingwood could be forced to travel to Adelaide to play the Power if the Magpies lose their next two games and Port Adelaide win. A win this week secures a home Elimination Final. There is still something to play for this round in the context of both sides’ fate this season. Nonetheless, both sides had disappointing losses last week and will be looking to restore some pride. Collingwood played with good intensity and effort last week but was ultimately outclassed by ladder-leaders Hawthorn. The Magpies would have been disappointed with their skill level and inability to stick crucial tackles. It was a real let down after two terrific weeks of football whereby it looked as if the Magpies were back to their absolute best. West Coast on the other hand was blown away by a rampaging Geelong with the match effectively over by quarter time. The Eagles would’ve felt as if they were an outside chance to cause an upset given their impressive effort against Essendon the week prior. However, injuries have severely taken a toll on them and they met the full force of a hungry Geelong side last Saturday. Turning the focus onto Collingwood, and there could be a temptation for coach Nathan Buckley to be experimental with team selection, or alternatively rest some key players considering a top eight spot is now secure but a double chance is out of reach. I think Buckley will resist this temptation considering it has taken the better part of 20 rounds to obtain some consistency in regards to team selection. Now is the time to get stability in the side before September. It will be a tricky assignment this week against a highly unpredictable West Coast outfit that is capable of good footy. Collingwood will be looking at this match as an opportunity to start gathering momentum ahead of September. Recent History Amazingly, this is the first time these two sides have met so far this year. You have to go back to last year’s Semi-Final for their last encounter. It was Collingwood that won on that occasion by 13 points. Dayne Beams was terrific with 30 possessions, whilst the usual suspects in Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury had 29 each. Dale Thomas also reminded the football world that he is a big game player booting three crucial goals and turning the match on its head. For the Eagles, Daniel Kerr had 29 disposals and Josh Hill booted two goals. Gaff was also impressive with 26 disposals, while Dean Cox was dominant in the ruck. Collingwood has won eight of its last nine matches against the Eagles. At the Selection Table Both sides have battled with injuries this year. Whilst Collingwood’s injury situation has slowly improved, West Coast’s has continued to deepen. Despite three weeks without a change to the side, Buckley will be forced to make at least two changes this week with Jamie Elliott and Ben Sinclair ruled out due to injury. Elliott’s injury may pave the way for Alan Didak, who was the leading disposal getter in the VFL with 34 disposals, to return. He was inaccurate with one goal and five behinds but the game was played in very windy conditions. Paul Seedsman seems to me to be the likely replacement for Sinclair after a 24-disposal game in the VFL. Darren Jolly was the other notable player to perform strongly at VFL level last week. He had 24 disposals and 34 hitouts. His selection may not be automatic considering Brodie Grundy’s strong form, however Buckley may consider playing the two designated ruckmen. Ben Hudson also performed well in the VFL with four goals. Others who will put their hands up include Ben Kennedy, who had 30 disposals at VFL level and Kyle Martin who booted three goals and found plenty of the football again. Both would be suitable replacements for Elliott. Andrew Krakouer did not play last week due to illness but was in solid form beforehand. The sad news to come this week revolved around Dale Thomas who re-injured his troublesome ankle and has now been ruled out for the year. More positively, Clinton Young is in line to play in the VFL this week as he makes a last minute bid to be available for finals.Turning attention onto West Coast, and it has been a struggle for coach John Worsfold to field his best side all season. Daniel Kerr, Mark LeCras, Nic Naitanui, Shannon Hurn, Mark Nicoski and Beau Waters have all been ruled out for the year and Luke Shuey is also likely to miss another week with a hamstring injury. Chris Masten will face a fitness test after he was a late withdrawal last week with hamstring tightness. Worsfold may be forced to call upon a number of fringe players to fill the void with Adam Selwood and Matt Rosa impressing in the WAFL. Other potential inclusions could be Cale Morton who had 32 touches or Brad Dick who kicked four goals. Dick, in particular, would be a great story if he could break into the team after years of battling injury for both the Magpies and West Coast. It would be great to see him play once more, especially against his old side. Focus on Collingwood There was a lot to like about the effort from the Magpies last week but also a lot to be disappointed about. Hawthorn threatened to blow Collingwood away numerous times yet the Collingwood midfield rallied and the defence held up in the second half. Collingwood would be keen to tidy up its disposal and stick its tackles this week against the Eagles. These are the two areas that cost the Magpies last week against the Hawks. Brodie Grundy – I have been hesitant to write about Grundy simply because I didn’t want to get too excited too soon. A part of me has always believed that he was only minding the ruck position until Jolly returned. However, in just four games, Grundy has just about cemented the number one ruck position and has shown everyone why he was rated so highly as a junior. He is getting better with every week as well. I thought his game last week against Hawthorn was his best yet, with 20 disposals and 28 hitouts. His aggressiveness is the key though. Grundy is never out of the contest, tackles with intent and is slowly beginning to show greater authority in marking contests. Considering he had no pre-season, there is so much upside to Brodie. It is going to be a huge test and learning curve this week against the West Coast champion Dean Cox. He may be aided by the support of Darren Jolly if he is recalled. Harry O’Brien – Since returning to the side in round 18, Harry has been in sparkling form. He looks angry and is tackling with great intent (taking six tackles in each of his last two games). Importantly, he is winning the ball offensively but also contributing defensively. He has also kicked a goal in each of his last four matches, which has added an extra dimension to his game. The team lifts when Harry kicks a goal and so does the crowd. Nathan Brown – It has been a mixed bag for Nathan Brown over the last month, having done terrific jobs on Jarryd Roughead and Scott Gumbleton but getting soundly beaten by Kurt Tippett and Jeremy Cameron. He will again be tested this week as he will likely play on Coleman Medal fancy Josh Kennedy or young Jack Darling. It is a huge test for Brown who will be hoping to find consistency given the fact finals is not far away and Collingwood has struggled to contain power forwards this year. He is forging a good partnership with Lachlan Keeffe who is growing in stature with every game he plays. Focus on West Coast The Eagles have had a year they would rather forget. Injuries are obviously an excuse, but the fact is that West Coast has simply been unable to find any consistency or fluency in their play. West Coast has been soundly beaten all year in the middle with so many key playmakers out and it is going to be a huge test against this star-studded Collingwood midfield. The one area that the Eagles remain strong in is the ruck division. They remain second in the competition for hitouts while the Magpies are languishing in last spot. Therefore, Cox could be the key considering he is likely to face a fifth gamer in Brodie Grundy. Josh Kennedy – Kennedy has been the shining light for the Eagles in 2013 and is equal first in the Coleman race with Jarryd Roughead and Jeremy Cameron (all have 60 goals). His contested marking remains a feature, as has his accuracy in front of goals booting 60 goals and 20 behinds. What is most impressive though is his ability to lead high up the field to produce a target, and also lay forward 50 tackles. His aggression for a big man is top class, and he averages three tackles a game. The Eagles will need a big bag from Kennedy this week if they are to win the game. Sharrod Wellingham – The former Magpie gets his first chance to come up against his old side this Friday night in front of the vocal Collingwood army. Wellingham was a part of the trade that saw Collingwood land the draft pick which secured Brodie Grundy. Sharrod got injured during the pre-season through a freak trampoline accident and did not play until round six. He has only played eight games for the season but has found his best form over the last month averaging 24 disposals and 1.5 goals a game. He will worry the Magpies with his pace and could be a very important player. With so many key players missing from the Eagles midfield, Wellingham needs to step up and continue his solid form. Matt Priddis – Priddis is one of the silent assassins in the competition. With Dean Cox tapping the ball down his throat, Priddis continues to notch up large numbers and always dominates in clearances. Although the Eagles midfield has struggled in 2013, Priddis continues to deliver solid numbers, averaging 26.2 disposals. He was one of his side’s better players last week with 29 disposals. He needs a big game on Friday night as the Eagles need to nullify the influence of the Collingwood midfield. He is likely to square off against Luke Ball and the battle between these two will be very intriguing. If Luke Ball gets on top around stoppages, there will be no stopping Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury. If Priddis can feed the ball out to guys like Wellingham and Andrew Gaff, then the Eagles may be a chance considering they have the tall timber up forward to worry the Magpies. The Wrap Up Although the Eagles can never be taken lightly, I think the Collingwood midfield is too deep and too talented. I struggle to see West Coast stopping Collingwood’s fab four. Playing away should not worry the Eagles as six of their nine wins have been interstate this year. However, I think Collingwood will completely outrun West Coast and seal a home final. Collingwood needs to shut down Priddis and nullify the influence of Cox. This will help maintain the dangerous forward line consisting of Kennedy and Darling. Up the other end, Travis Cloke and Ben Reid will have their work cut out against Eric Mackenzie and Darren Glass, but should have enough goal-scoring options all over the field to kick a winning score. Collingwood by 30 points. LAST TIME: Collingwood 10.13 (73) def. West Coast 9.6 (60), Semi Final, 2012 at the MCG WALKING WOUNDED: Ben Sinclair (shoulder) and Jamie Elliott (hamstring) will both miss, but Darren Jolly is available for selection. Nathan Buckley now must decide whether to include the veteran or continue with impressive youngster Brodie Grundy. Dale Thomas' bid for a late-season return has officially been scuppered after he broke down in the VFL last week. Clinton Young is also unlikely to be seen again this season due to persistent hamstring issues. Luke Shuey has been ruled out with a hamstring issue, but in better news, Chris Masten should return to the side after he was a late withdrawal last week. The cue is firmly in the rack for the Eagles though with Nic Naitanui and Mark LeCras done for the season. The duo have already turned their focus to 2013, along with Daniel Kerr, Shannon Hurn and Beau Waters. FORM: The Pies have been in top form in recent weeks, but were made to look second rate by the Hawks last week. Coming into the match off impressive wins over Essendon and Sydney, they proved no match for the ladder leaders, who ran away with an easy win. The Eagles were also made to look second rate by a premiership contender with Geelong running riot at Patersons Stadium last week. The Cats kept the hosts t o their lowest ever score at the venue and the Eagles were a far cry from the side that dismantled the Bombers the week before. WE THINK: At the start of the year you would have thought this would be a heavyweight clash between two top four sides, but instead it's shaping as a big Collingwood victory. The Pies are finals-bound and playing some pretty good footy, while the cue is firmly in the rack for the Eagles. Not only that, but Collingwood have close to a full team on the park, while West Coast are decimated by injury. Expect Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Luke Ball to all run amok and give Travis Cloke plenty of opportunities to kick a bag. It's hard to see anything but a big Collingwood victory here. Magpies by 47 points. |
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