|
There are only four rounds remaining in the 2013 AFL home and away season and maybe the Collingwood Football Club has finally found it’s best form. All season long the Magpies, the biggest sporting club in the nation, have struggled for consistency as they’ve matched wins with losses, and good form with bad. The last month had followed that familiar pattern with good wins over Adelaide and Carlton but poor performances against the Suns and Giants. Then came August, and with the first game of the last month before the finals series hope finally presented itself in the form of a four quarter performance. The Magpies destroyed the controversial Essendon Bombers, so much so that by the end the opposition were searching for excuses as to why they were decimated to that degree. The end result was a 79 point win, just the tonic that the Magpie army needed and maybe, just maybe the Magpies are still a chance of doing some damage come September. First though the draw gets even tougher, with a trip to Sydney this weekend to face arguably the most in form side in the AFL, the Swans. The reigning premiers have won their last six games and currently sit second on the ladder, primed for yet another shot at the flag. This week the Swans will welcome the Pies to ANZ Stadium at Homebush, a place where the locals had struggled to get a win over the visiting Magpies. Of course that all changed on preliminary final weekend last year when the Swans took care of Collingwood with relative ease, booking a place in the following week’s Grand Final with a 28 point win that ended the Magpies season. Prior to that game though, Sydney hadn’t beaten Collingwood since the 2005 season, but it seems that whatever advantage the Magpies had over the Swans may be gone as Sydney destroyed the men in black and white on the MCG by 47 points back in round 9 earlier this year. It was a brutal performance that night from the Swans, one that left both teams in no doubt where each stood. Since that night the Swans have suffered some injury setbacks but their form hasn’t tapered off too much it seems. PREVIOUS FORM The Sydney Swans have had a great premiership defense so far, currently sitting just half a win off the top of the AFL ladder. The Swans have won their last 6 games and have done so in emphatic style, even if the level of their opposition hasn’t been top class. In fact in that 6 game winning streak only Richmond are probable finalists, but you can only beat the teams put in front of you and that’s what Sydney have been doing. That win over Richmond came two rounds back at the SCG, and in wet and wild conditions the Swans dominated the game completely and ran away with an easy 47 point win. Last week the Swans travelled to Melbourne to take on the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium and despite the Dogs putting up a fight in the first half, the Swans never really looked threatened as they notched up yet another win, this time by 35 points. The Swans midfield ran amok as usual, with Jack, Mitchell, Mcveigh and Bird all in the best players. The form of Jesse White over the past few weeks has probably been the biggest plus for the Swans though, as in the absence of Goodes and Reid the tall forward has really taken his opportunity and performed well. Gun recruit Kurt Tippett also looks on the verge of getting back to his best form, which makes this Swans outfit a scary one to deal with indeed. Prior to last week’s win over Essendon, Collingwood were struggling, as shown by two very lacklustre efforts against the Gold Coast Suns and GWS Giants. Yet from the first minute of last week’s game against the Bombers the Magpies looked like a top team as they dismantled an Essendon team that was fighting for a top four spot. The Pies backline was immense with Lachlan Keeffe and Nathan Brown showing that they could form a partnership that would allow Ben Reid to play forward at times, and the Bombers had no answer for Reid up forward. It’s the Pies midfield that makes it an elite team though and for one of the first times in the last two seasons the entire midfield crew were together and boy did they love sharing that ball around. Steele Sidebottom may well have found a new role too as he played off half back for a fair portion of the game and was close to best on ground. It was an intense, hard tackling, full pressure performance from Collingwood that we haven’t seen too much since the end of the 2011 season. If they can repeat that type of performance no one is unbeatable for this Magpies team. COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW Collingwood go into this matchup with the Swans as a completely different beast to the one that was defeated by the Swans both back in round 9, and the preliminary final last season. In terms of personnel it’s more about the players who won’t be playing than will be, with the likes of Clarke, Witts, Russell, Krakouer and Kennedy all being part of the side in round 9. The biggest addition to the line up since that match is Dayne Beams, the reigning Copeland Trophy winner who missed so much of the season through injury but is now back and playing near his best. Some others who did play in round 9 but will play this week are improved also, with Marley Williams being a great example of this. Back in round 9 Williams had just returned to the senior side but now he has cemented a spot on the half back flank is a vital part of the Magpies backline. The side is more settled now and there is likely to be very minimal changes to the 22 that ran out last Sunday versus Essendon. Even though there will be a few different players on the field for the Pies this week in comparison with round 9, it’s more the approach and intensity that the team plays with that influences how Collingwood performs. The Magpies, not unlike the Swans, rely on constant pressure of the opposition ball carrier and a relentless support for their team mates in any situation that arises. Maybe for the first time this season that absolute desperation was there last week for all four quarters of the game, but then the question is raised as to whether it can be repeated. Having a fit and stable midfield helps though, especially when you are coming up against one of the best midfield groups in the AFL. As long as the Pies have Swan, Beams, Ball and Pendlebury all relatively fit and healthy, they can compete with any midfield in the AFL. The move of Ben Reid forward also has added a new lease of life to a Magpies side that was struggling, but with Sydney likely to have three talls on their forward line at any one time, the Pies may have Reid in defense at times this week. To beat the Swans, Collingwood will have to play every bit as well as they did last week, but also expect that they will face a much tougher task over coming the Swans than they did the Bombers. OPPOSITION ANALYSIS As strange as it sounds, the Swans may not be going as good this year as they were this time last year. They do sit second on the AFL ladder with 14 wins out of 18 games but it’s injuries that are of the biggest concern for the Swans in season 2013. They are still missing the likes of Goodes, Jetta, Reid, Johnston, Walsh and Roberts-Thomson, with the latter two out for the rest of the season. The Swans have endured a tougher run with injuries this year for sure which is why their current position on the ladder is so impressive. Yes, they will be tested in 3 big games leading into the finals (Pies, Cats, Hawks) but they are almost certain to finish top four once again, which is an achievement in itself for a premiership defending team. The Swans midfield is about as strong as any other in the AFL, and most weeks it is where they dominate the opposition. Sydney are ranked first for tackles, contested possessions and clearances and also have the most stoppages in the AFL. That last statistic says a lot about this team, they are a contested ball winning team who rely on winning the ball in those tough situations to destroy their opposition. The midfield is usually made up of Kennedy, Hannebery, Jack, Goodes (injured at the moment), O’Keeffe and Bolton with a very strong ruck core also. The Swans rank second for total hitouts with Mumford, Pyke and White all contributing to that. Against a strong Magpies midfield this weekend Sydney will look for their rucks to get first touch on the ball against a Pies rucking group that is last in the AFL for hitouts. The Pies midfield is mightily strong outside the ruck though so this will be a battle worth watching in the midfield, and if one side can get a clear edge in this are it may well decide the game. Sydney’s forward line and ability to put the score on the board is as strong as anyone in the AFL now and the addition of Kurt Tippett has obviously given this area of the ground a strong boost. Since returning from his AFL imposed suspension for draft tampering Tippett is averaging 3 goals a game for the Swans, and joins 7 others who have averaged more than a goal a game so far this year. Several of those are midfielders but with White, Tippett, McGlynn and Pike as almost permanent members of that forward line now Sydney doesn’t lack for scoring options, although the absence of Reid and Goodes might effect them a bit this week. The Magpies backline was destroyed by the Swans forward line in the round 9 matchup, especially on the counter attack. Although the Pies backline has improved in that area over recent weeks it will be interesting to see how they handle this dangerous Swans forward line on Saturday night. The Swans backline is workmanlike and very effective in performing it’s main duty, which of course is to stop the opposition from scoring. The Swans have conceded the second least points so far in 2013, with only the ultra defensive Fremantle Dockers having less total points scored against them this season. The loss of Lewis Roberts-Thomson for the year has seen Heath Grundy, Ted Richards (playing his 200th game here) and youngster Dane Rampe take the responsibility of the key position posts down back, and on most occasions they have performed above expectations. The run out of the Swans backline is still top class too with Malceski, McVeigh, Smith and Shaw all capable of moving the ball very quickly on the rebound, as the Magpies found out both in round 9 and the preliminary final last year. The probable addition of Reid to the Pies forward line this week will make the job tougher for the Sydney backline this week as every team Reid has played forward for large periods of a game, the Pies have looked better. Travis Cloke is obviously still the main worry for the Swans though, and it would be a shock if Ted Richards wasn’t given first crack at the Magpie man mountain. The Swans are ticking along nicely despite the injury setbacks they have suffered and are almost certain to finish in the top four again once the home and away season ends in a few weeks. They rely on their midfield and their overall tackling and perceived pressure to grind sides into submission, but gone are the days of the Paul Roos coached teams that won games almost through total defense. The Swans are now equally as effective in attack mode as they are in defense and this week they’ll be very confident of defeating the visiting Magpies. TIP The Swans will start favourites for this game and rightfully so, but given the history between these two sides, especially at this weeks venue you may consider the Magpies as a realistic chance to cause an upset. The Pies found their best form of the season last week and if they can reproduce that this week they will push the Swans to the line. Finally there is also some stability to the Magpies senior team with very few, if any, changes expected this week. This will be a hard fought game of football which both sides won’t back away from at all, and if the Magpies can start the game well and therefore be in contention late, they might cause an upset over the flying Swans. PIES BY 8 POINTS. SUMMARY Some extra spice has suddenly been added to this game and it's largely down to Collingwood's return to form. As recently as seven days ago, the Pies were being written off as a threat in 2013 following a first ever loss to the Gold Coast and a very unconvincing win over Greater Western Sydney. But that all changed courtesy of a comprehensive 79-point thrashing of Essendon on Sunday that re-ignited their flagging top-four hopes and gave them the perfect fillip ahead of a trip to Sydney to face the premiers. They will likely need to lift again, however, if they are to knock off the Swans at ANZ Stadium. Despite a bevy of injuries to key players, the Swans have surged to second place on the ladder via a six-game winning streak. Following an 11-match losing run to Collingwood, the Swans have also won the past two between these teams, including a 47-point belting at the MCG in round nine this year. The Pies sit a game-and-a-half outside the top four and the Swans have a tough run home to try to retain second place, so expect an intense contest on Saturday night. LAST FIVE MEETINGS R9, 2013, Swans 15.12 (102) d Collingwood 8.7 (55) at the MCG 2PF, 2012, Swans 13.18 (96) d Collingwood 10.10 (70) at ANZ Stadium R20, 2012, Collingwood 12.6 (78) d Sydney 9.16 (70) at ANZ Stadium R14, 2011, Collingwood 13.21 (99) d Sydney 14.9 (93) at ANZ Stadium R13, 2010, Collingwood 13.18 (96) d Sydney 10.11 (71) at ANZ Stadium THE SIX POINTS 1. The Pies will be pleased Adam Goodes' knee injury forces him to miss this game. In round nine he put in one of the best games of his career, including 30 touches, 11 marks and three goals, to lead the Swans to a commanding victory and suffered the indignity of being racially abused by a young Collingwood fan. 2. Overall this will be the 221st game between these two teams and Collingwood holds a dominant 138-81 win-loss record, with one draw occurring way back in 1947. 3. There will be plenty of star power on show at ANZ Stadium – the Swans and Pies are the only teams to have two players ranked in the top 10 in the Official AFL Player Ratings. Collingwood's Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan are sixth and seventh respectively, while for the Swans, it has Kieren Jack (5th) and Josh Kennedy (8th). 4. The Swans have managed to overturn what had been a shaky record at the Sydney Olympic Park venue. Between 2009 and 2010 they lost five straight games there, but they have since won six of their past eight, including last year's preliminary final against Collingwood, en route to the flag. 5. It has been more than 14 years since a Swans side beat Collingwood in three straight games, something they can achieve again on Saturday. Between round 22, 1995 and round 10, 1999, the Swans knocked off the Pies on six consecutive occasions. 6. Both of these teams have their clear strengths. For the Swans, they are ranked first in the competition for contested possessions, clearances and tackles. Collingwood, meanwhile, leads the AFL in total disposals and uncontested possessions. The biggest match of round 20 is undoubtedly the clash between Collingwood and Sydney this Saturday night at ANZ Stadium, considering the sides are ranked sixth and second on the ladder respectively.
Collingwood News
|
Both sides had terrific wins last round and look to be building into their best form in the run home to finals. The Swans in particular are looking very strong and have won their previous six games. Sydney will be looking to cement its top four position and also hold onto second spot considering the prize is a home Qualifying Final. Collingwood, on the other hand, is still an outside chance to make the top four, but can still mathematically drop out of the top eight with a difficult run home. Therefore, the Magpies need one more win to cement a top eight position. The Magpies were terrific last week against Essendon, in what was the side’s most complete four-quarter performance all season. A 79-point victory against a quality side such as Essendon was a massive result and has sent a message to the rest of the competition that the Magpies are still a force to be reckoned with. Sydney on the other hand took four quarters to overcome a determined Western Bulldogs, but showed the football world how difficult it is to beat. Even with the Bulldogs playing their best football, Sydney was always able to remain in control of the game and had too many match-winners across the board. In my opinion, the Swans still deserve to be Premiership favourites considering the other sides in the top eight all still have question marks. Playing Sydney has been described as receiving an audit. Every weakness will be exposed and it is a true indication on all the areas that need improvement to be a top four side. This was very much the case for the Magpies in round nine when these sides last met. Sydney has the ability to grind its opponent into the ground. It ranks first in contested disposals, clearances and tackles. The hunger is still there despite the premiership in 2012. This will test Collingwood as it is the number one uncontested disposal side in the competition. If the Magpies cannot match the Swans in the clinches, then this uncontested style of football will struggle. It is also an indication that the Magpies need to be a bit more direct as over-possessing plays into Sydney’s hand by allowing defenders to crowd the forward line and also providing turn-over opportunities. Recent History Sydney has well and truly broken the Collingwood curse. After 11 consecutive losses, Sydney finally broke through last year in the Preliminary Final at ANZ Stadium, beating the Magpies by 26 points. When these sides last met in round nine earlier this year, the Swans completely outran Collingwood. John Longmire’s men gave the Magpies a lesson in work rate, running harder offensively and defensively. Some of Collingwood’s key playmakers were well held, with Dane Swan in particular could only manage 23 disposals for the game. Travis Cloke tried his hardest with three goals, while Luke Ball was serviceable with 28 disposals and nine tackles. The Swans, however, had match-winners all over the park. Hannebery was dominant with 31 disposals and two goals and Adam Goodes was at his absolute best with 30 disposals and three goals. Nick Malceski and Jarrad McVeigh also did as they pleased off half back with 30 disposals each. Sydney was also dominant in the ruck, with Mike Pyke also chipping in with two goals. At the Selection Table The biggest issue for Nathan Buckley is how to structure his ruck division. Brodie Grundy has done a terrific job in his first two games, taking on very experienced ruckman and holding his own. Buckley was very quick to praise his game. However, the Magpies were still well beaten for hitouts and clearances despite the 79-point victory. Darren Jolly, Ben Hudson and Jarrod Witts are all available, but Jolly pulled up sore after his VFL hitout last week and may be no automatic inclusion. The temptation will be to bring in either Hudson or Witts to play support to Grundy, however this may make the side too top heavy with Lachlan Keeffe and Quinten Lynch both in the squad as well. I think the ruck combination looked best with Lynch as the back-up option. Therefore it is likely Grundy will hold his position. It would be a huge test against Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke. In other selection news, Alan Didak and Paul Seedsman were both very impressive in the VFL, while Andrew Krakouer is also trying hard to earn senior recall. Dale Thomas is back into full training, but he will not play in the VFL this week. He is a chance to return in the VFL in the following weeks and still has hope of making it back for the finals. Turning the focus onto the Swans, and John Longmire is unlikely to make many changes after a month of very solid football. The Swans are still without a number of key players including Adam Goodes, Lewis Jetta and Sam Reid. All are unlikely to return before finals, which means Sydney will have to continue to rely on a number of younger players who have filled the void remarkably. Alex Johnson will also miss the rest of the season. Tony Armstrong and Mitch Morton are two Swans playing well in the reserves. Morton kicked six goals last round after announcing that he will be retiring at seasons end. Focus on Collingwood The Magpies were back to their absolute best last round. Collingwood dominated disposal yet still had a remarkable 81 tackles (29 more than the Bombers). The hunger was back, the turnover pressure was there and the Magpies only conceded seven goals for the game. The move of Ben Reid up forward continues to pay dividends. Reid kicked three goals and took eight marks while allowing Travis Cloke to play one-on-one with his opponent more often. This allowed Cloke to kick five goals and also work his opponent up the ground as well. Jamie Elliott and Jarryd Blair were both able to chip in with three and two goals respectively which made the forward line look very dangerous again. Brent Macaffer – When these sides last met, Macaffer had the tagging job on Josh Kennedy. Despite Sydney’s convincing win, Macaffer was able to hold Kennedy to 18 disposals. He was one player who probably won his position on the night. However, Buckley has been reluctant to use Macaffer in tagging roles through the middle part of this season, instead opting to utilise him in a more attacking forward role. This changed last week when Macaffer played a tight tagging role on Dyson Heppell. Despite giving away a few free kicks, Macaffer ultimately did a reasonable job on Heppell allowing him only 22 disposals. All these disposals were under pressure. I think Buckley will opt to use Macaffer in a tagging role on Josh Kennedy again, although he could also be used on Dan Hannebery or Kieren Jack. It might also be an option to use him as a half forward playing a defensive role on Jarrad McVeigh. Dayne Beams – The reigning Collingwood Copeland Trophy winner has not missed a beat since returning to the side in round 16. He has averaged 30 disposals and also kicked three goals. He is also averaging four tackles a game. He did not play when these sides last met so his availability will provide a boost. His presence has already had a direct impact on the form of Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Ball who are all benefitting from his return. Steele Sidebottom has also been used as a sweeping half back which is a luxury the Pies could not afford without Beams in the side. After a frustrating first half of the year, Beams looks as though he is priming himself for a big finals campaign. Quinten Lynch – Many had written off the Q-Stick after a form slump in the middle of the season. But instead he went back to VFL level after overcoming a back injury and played very well, which in turn led to his senior recall last round against Essendon. He played a great match, picking up 21 disposals, kicking one goal and also playing as a back-up ruckman to the inexperienced Brodie Grundy. He adds a lot to the Collingwood structure as he gives Buckley the freedom to swing Reid back into defence, whilst also adding depth in the ruck stocks. He is also more versatile than Hudson or Witts who are both vying for the second ruck position. He will be important this week, especially if Grundy is selected to take on the physicality of Mumford and Pyke. Lynch will need to add support. Harry O’Brien – Harry returned to his best last round, picking up 27 disposals and kicking a goal. He seemed to play behind the ball as a loose man but also provided great run through the midfield all match. He looked hungry and his tackling was ferocious. He also put himself in goal scoring positions, and was perhaps unlucky to end the match with only one goal. He proved how valuable he is to the side. Focus on Sydney The strength of the Swans is the incredible depth in their midfield. Such depth has allowed Longmire the luxury of playing McVeigh across half back which is providing real class coming out of defence along with Malceski. There are very few teams in the AFL that can combine such attack with defence. There are no ‘down-hill skiers’ and every player is willing to do a role for the team, including the more high profile players. Despite injuries, Sydney has been able to find players to step in. Players such as Kurt Tippett, Tom Mitchell, Jed Lamb, Brandon Jack and Dane Rampe have all stepped in to fill roles of injured players. Rampe in particular has been very solid since the injury to Johnson early in the year. Kurt Tippett – The controversial forward has made his presence felt at the Swans since serving his 11-week suspension. He was the difference last week against the Bulldogs kicking six goals. In fact, Tippett has kicked 21 goals in just seven games. He has made the absence of Sam Reid and Adam Goodes nearly non-existent and has made an already potent forward line even more complete. He is going to be a real handful in September given the fact he is relatively fresh and keen to live up to the hype after leaving Adelaide. Jesse White – White has been the main beneficiary from the absence of Reid and Goodes and has cemented a spot for himself up forward over the last month. The 25-year-old finally looks set to live up to his potential. He has kicked 13 goals for the year so far. With Reid and Goodes to return, his position in the team is far from secure, so he needs to impress against good sides like Collingwood if he is to retain his spot for finals. Kieren Jack – The reliable midfielder has taken his game to a whole new level in season 2013. He is now a real favourite for the Brownlow Medal and is also the clear winner of the AFLCA Award which is a huge achievement considering Gary Ablett is having a career-best season. He has also leap frogged his teammate Josh Kennedy in the Official AFL Player Ratings. Jack is much more than just a tagger now. He averages 26 disposals and a goal a game, to go with seven tackles per game (number one in competition). He was best afield last week with 13 tackles and 30 disposals as well as two goals. In recent weeks, many sides have opted to tag Jack ahead of his more fancied teammates. It will be interesting to see whether Longmire elects to use Jack as a tagger on one of Collingwood’s gun midfielders, or whether he plays as a ball winner. Jarrad McVeigh – As mentioned above, McVeigh has made himself at home as a rebounding half back flanker. When allowed to run free, McVeigh has become the architect of so many Sydney attacks starting from defence. He is smart and reliable with the ball. McVeigh is averaging over 26 disposals a game, and has also been able to push forward and kick 13 goals to date. He simply must be tagged by a Collingwood forward or be made to play accountably. This is easier said than done because if you tag McVeigh, then the Swans still have Malceski and Rhyce Shaw, and McVeigh can push into the midfield. The Wrap Up Sydney will start this game raging favourite considering it is on a six game winning streak and has out-played Collingwood in the previous two encounters. However, Collingwood is nearing full strength, and the absence of Adam Goodes will be felt since he has dominated the Magpies in the past. I get the feeling Collingwood is about to really start motoring now. That said, the Magpies have been really inconsistent all season. The win against Essendon was a good start, but Collingwood needs to match the benchmark side in the competition if it is truly to consider itself a challenger this season and put two solid weeks together. Sydney has amazing midfield depth, but Collingwood can match them in this area. Cloke has always provided a handful for Sydney. The difference may be Pyke and Mumford in the ruck. If Collingwood can break even in the ruck, it will go a long way to winning this match. Pies by 8 points
LAST TIME: Sydney Swans 15.12 (102) def. Collingwood 8.7 (55), Round 9, 2013 at MCG
WALKING WOUNDED The Swans have Adam Goodes (knee), Lewis Jetta (shin), Sam Reid (quad) and Lewis Roberts-Thomson (knee) sidelined for at least three more weeks, while Alex Johnson (knee) and Tommy Walsh (hamstring) won't play again this season. Forward Ben McGlynn is available again after serving a three-match suspension. The Pies are unlikely to have the services of veteran ruckman Darren Jolly after he pulled up sore from a match in the VFL on the weekend, while Dale Thomas (ankle) and Clinton Young (hamstring) are still at least a week away from resuming. Alan Toovey (knee) is gone for the season, while Alex Fasolo (foot) is out indefinitely and unlikely to play again this year. FORM The Swans have the best form of any team in the competition, with the reigning premiers currently on a six-game winning streak. Last round the Swans had to produce their best to get past the Dogs by 35 points. The Pies have been inconsistent this season, but showed their best when they dismantled Essendon by 79 points last week. That was the Pies' second win on the trot and has allowed them to rise to sixth place on the ladder and cement their spot in the top eight. WE THINK This match promises to be a tight encounter between two sides still in the race for the premiership in 2013. As usual, the battle in the middle of the ground will be imperative to the outcome. The Swans will be hoping Shane Mumford will be able to give the likes of Josh Kennedy, Daniel Hannebery and Kieren Jack first use of the ball, while the Pies will rely on Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Dayne Beams to get them moving forward. The Swans' forward line looks ominous with Kurt Tippett at full forward, but the Pies' defence looks capable of keeping him quiet with Lachie Keeffe and Ben Reid a chance to line up on him. Travis Cloke could pose a problem for the Swans' backline, while Jamie Elliott and Jarryd Blair are sure to feast on any loose crumbs in the Collingwood forward line. It's always tough to pick against the Swans at home and we expect them to edge the Pies in a close one. Sydney by five points. |
No comments :
Post a Comment