Preview Round 21: Collingwood v Richmond

AFL

Round 21 Collingwood v Richmond Saturday, Aug 22 1:45pm MCG Fox Footy 1:30pm Weather: Min 12 Max 18 Chance of rain 50%: < 1mm Wind: NW 22kph Betting: Collingwood $2.80 Richmond $1.43

SUMMARY
The Tigers have cemented their spot in the eight but won't be satisfied with simply making the finals, and must continue to win if they are to challenge for the top four. Meanwhile, the Magpies are a dangerous opponent, especially with the pressure off given their finals hopes are all but over. It appeals as a battle of contrasting styles: the Tigers' outside speed and skill against the Pies' fierce pressure and hardball-winning. A terrific midfield duel is expected given Tigers skipper Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin will take on Pies captain Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R7, 2015, Richmond 16.9 (105) d Collingwood 15.10 (100) at the MCG
2. R4, 2014, Collingwood 16.14 (110) d Richmond 10.12 (72) at the MCG
3. R4, 2013, Collingwood 16.17 (113) d Richmond 11.13 (79) at the MCG
4. R2, 2012, Collingwood 12.13 (85) d Richmond 8.16 (64) at the MCG
5. R4, 2011, Collingwood 24.17 (161) d Richmond 13.12 (90) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Collingwood is the equal-best contested-possession team this season, averaging 145.5 a game, while Richmond has battled in this area, being 11th with 135.3.
2. The Tigers continue to struggle to lay enough tackles and are ranked 17th with 57.4 a game, while the Magpies are the No.1 tackling team with 73.
3. Richmond's midfield was the difference between the sides in round seven – skipper Trent Cotchin had 32 disposals, Brett Deledio 30 and two goals, and Shaun Grigg 28 and two goals. Meanwhile, Jack Riewoldt kicked 4.0.
4. Richmond's win ended a seven-game losing sequence against Collingwood, and was Damien Hardwick's first as a coach against the Magpies – but they haven't won two in a row against them since 2005-06.
5. Richmond has been awarded 42 more free kicks this season than the second-ranked team North Melbourne. The Tigers average 22.6 a game, while the 13th-ranked Magpies have averaged 17.4.
6. After four rounds, Richmond's star backman Alex Rance was ranked No.71 in the Official AFL Player Ratings but has since risen to No.41 – the highest rating for a key defender in the AFL.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Damien Hardwick. The Tigers coach simply needs to ensure his players get the job done against what was a bogey team until they broke the drought in round seven. Hardwick will have just the stat with which to needle his players – they laid just one tackle in the first quarter against Gold Coast, and only nine for the entire first half. Expect them to go on a tackle frenzy in the opening minutes against the Pies.

PREDICTION: Richmond by 19 points