Preview Round 19: Collingwood v Carlton

AFL

Round 19 Collingwood v Carlton Saturday, Aug 8 1:45pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 1:30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 14 Chance of rain 20%: <1mm Wind: S 9kph Betting: Collingwood $1.20 Carlton $4.60

SUMMARY
This is the 'Last Chance Saloon' for Collingwood, which probably needs to win each of its remaining five games to be in the running for a finals berth. That would represent a remarkable turnaround, given the Pies have lost their past six games – their longest barren stretch since 2005-06 – to plummet from fourth to 11th. And this mightn't be the walk in the park against the old enemy it appeared just a few weeks ago. The battling Blues showed enough in their loss to North Melbourne last week to suggest they could trouble the Pies.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R5, 2015, Collingwood 18.12 (120) d Carlton 6.9 (45) at the MCG
2. R15, 2014, Collingwood 13.13 (91) d Carlton 11.10 (76) at the MCG
3. R7, 2014, Collingwood 14.20 (104) d Carlton 10.10 (70) at the MCG
4. R15, 2013, Collingwood 17.16 (118) d Carlton 12.5 (77) at the MCG
5. R2, 2013, Collingwood 17.15 (117) d Carlton 15.10 (100) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Another loss for the Pies and it will be the first time since rounds 1-7, 1999, that they would have lost seven consecutive games in the same season.
2. Since they were 8-3 and in fourth, the Magpies have lost six games in a row, averaging only 70 points a game while conceding 88.
3. Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury starred with 32 possessions and two goals in his club's 75-point win over Carlton in round five. Blues skipper Marc Murphy was the Blues' best with 26 disposals.
4. Despite their poor season, the Blues continue to be a strong centre clearance team, ranked third in the AFL with 13.4 a game, while Collingwood is 12th with 11.4.
5. No two teams have met more often than Collingwood and Carlton, with their 250 contests resulting 125 wins to 121 in the Blues' favour, with four draws. The Pies have won their past five clashes, and 10 of the past 12.
6. Pies midfielder Steele Sidebottom is on the slide in the Official AFL Player Ratings. In round two, the 2010 premiership player was sitting pretty at No.11 – a personal best – but has since slumped to No. 42.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Everyone associated with the Magpies, from president Eddie McGuire and coach Nathan Buckley down. On the field, goalsneak Jamie Elliott needs a big performance to reassert himself. Collingwood's second highest goalkicker with 28 majors, the livewire's form had tailed off for several weeks before he was sidelined with a stress reaction in his back. In his first game back last week he was the Pies' substitute due to his lack of conditioning, so we'd love to see him return to his high-flying, goalkicking ways.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 19 points