Round 22
Collingwood v GeelongMCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 13 Chance of rain 80%: 1-5mm Wind: WSW 25kph Betting: Collingwood $3.15 Geelong $1.37 |
For the Magpies, any slim hope of making the finals was quashed last week by a dominant Richmond side. The 91-point loss was Collingwood’s biggest of the season, and the first time all year that the Magpies have been genuinely thrashed. I noted in my last preview that there was a risk of such a loss following the heart-breaking finish to the Sydney game the week prior. Collingwood had treated that trip to Sydney like a final, and the loss clearly left the side very deflated.
Geelong also had a very disappointing result last week, with a nail-biting draw to lowly-ranked St.Kilda. The draw means the Cats remain a mathematical chance to make finals, but is six points out of the top eight and therefore needs to rely on Adelaide losing its final two matches. This is not totally out of the question. The Crows face red hot West Coast this week, and then travels to Simmonds Stadium to play Geelong in round twenty three. If Geelong wins this week, and Adelaide loses, it will make the round 23 game a live match, with the winner going on to make the finals. Geelong has everything to play for this weekend. If it loses, the top eight is locked in and all matches in round 23 will be dead rubbers. If it wins, life remains in the 2015 home and away season.
Despite the pressure and hype surrounding the Cats, don’t write off the Magpies this week. There is no doubt that the loss to Richmond stung, and the side will be hell bent on regaining some respect this weekend. Whilst a finals spot is no longer possible, Collingwood needs to utilise the last two weeks as a building block towards the 2016 pre-season. With a clash against Essendon looming in round 23, there is an opportunity for Collingwood to finish off the season well and enter the pre-season full of confidence.
Recent History
When these sides last met in round six, an 11 goal-to-two first half meant the game was over very quickly. The Magpies were able to even the game up slightly in the second half, but eventually lost by 41 points.
Mitch Duncan was best on ground with 38 disposals and 12 marks, whilst Jackson Thurlow also had a breakout game with 30 disposals. Mark Blicavs was very important, shutting down Scott Pendlebury whilst also picking up 27 disposals.
At the Selection Table
Expect a few changes from both sides this weekend.
Collingwood should welcome back Nathan Brown after suspension. The VFL side had a big win last weekend, with a number of players really staking their claims. Ben Kennedy continues to dominate, as does Sam Dwyer. Clinton Young was adjudged best on ground, whilst Matt Scharenberg also continues to impress and could be recalled. Patrick Karnezis was rested, but has strong form behind him, whilst Jarrod Witts has been playing good football since been demoted to VFL. Adam Oxley kicked two goals as he returned to the VFL side last week while teammate Paul Seedsman was also dominant with 30 disposals.
Mason Cox was a big story last week, kicking five goals in a dominant second half. Despite his form, coach Nathan Buckley has stated that it is unlikely he will play this week. In other news, Tyson Goldsack has been ruled out for the rest of the year as he requires surgery for his knee tendonitis issues, whilst Nathan Freeman, Brendon Abbott and Jackson Ramsay have also all been ruled out for the rest of the season.
Turning attention towards Geelong and Daniel Menzel could make his long awaited return from injury. Selection would mean his first game since the 2011 qualifying final. Shane Kersten is in good form at VFL level, booting five goals last week, while James Kelly and Matthew Stokes could also press for selection, particularly if Josh Caddy is unavailable with his knee complaint. Duncan is also pressing for selection following a calf strain.
Focus on Collingwood
While the loss last week was disappointing, I think the way Collingwood approaches this game will tell a lot more about the mental character of this side than the loss to Richmond. This is a group of proud players who have fought tooth and nail all year, and last week was the first time where the team seemingly gave up. Finishing off the year so poorly would take a lot of gloss off a promising development year. Therefore, I am expecting a swift response.
Despite the big loss last week, Collingwood dominated the inside 50s count and also led the contested possession for most of the match. It is an indication that the midfielders are doing the hard work, but the execution inside 50 has left a lot to be desired. Collingwood’s forward line looks good on paper, but didn’t work hard enough offensively or defensively. Up the other end of the ground, Richmond proved extremely efficient, making the most of their inside 50s and nailing theirs shots on goal.
Collingwood did not utilise its loose man in defence. Instead, this man was often caught too high up the ground, which left too much space for the Tigers forwards to work into. The Magpies need to do a lot of work in the off-season on defensive positioning, and not getting sucked into the contests. The spare man needs to place himself a lot better.
Player Focus
Levi Greenwood – I thought Greenwood was one player who could hold his head high after last week’s performance. He had a tight tagging job on Trent Cotchin, and limited him to only 13 disposals. Greenwood had 24 himself, along with a whopping 10 tackles and also a goal. The former North Melbourne midfielder has found it difficult since returning to the side after injury, but this was clearly his best game for the club to date. He is likely to get the tagging job on Joel Selwood this week.
Scott Pendlebury – The captain has received a fair share of criticism this week for comments made in his post-match interview. In my opinion, his works regarding the meaning of Saturday’s game against Richmond were clearly taken out of context and a lot of the criticism has been unwarranted. In any event, expect the Magpies skipper to really lift this week and lead from the front. He is one of the proudest footballers going around, and knows that he needs to step up. He was tagged out of the game by Blicavs when these sides last met, so is likely to get this match-up again. It is important Pendlebury also tries to limit the influence of Blicavs as well as impact the contest himself.
Focus on Geelong
The Cats were disappointing last week and now face an uphill battle just to make finals. In many regards, Geelong has had a good year, developing a lot of new players whilst remaining very competitive. The future in undoubtedly bright for this Geelong side, but finishing outside the top eight would be a huge disappointment. There are also a number of senior players in the Geelong side whose futures remain unclear given the preference to develop for the future. Therefore, expect proud players such as Steven Johnson and Jimmy Bartel to step up.
There were question marks over Geelong’s midfield entering this season, but players like Blicavs, Duncan and Caddy have really improved. However, for Geelong to return to one of the power houses of the competition, it still needs to improve its clearance work (ranked last in the competition) and contested football (ranked 15th in the competition).
Player Focus
Steven Motlop – There is speculation over Motlop’s playing future, especially with Geelong tipped to be very active over the trade period. The 24-year-old is in career best form and has arguably been Geelong’s best player in the last month. He was again electric last week with 33 disposals and a goal, to go with eight tackles. It was nearly enough to single-handedly get his team across the line. He is a huge threat for the Magpies this weekend.
Mark Blicavs – Blicavs really announced himself to the competition when these sides last met in round six. His tagging job on Pendlebury was enormous, whilst also picking up 27 disposals along the way. At 200cm tall, and from an athletics background, Blicavs is almost unstoppable. His form has tapered slightly as the season has worn on, but he still remains one of Geelong’s biggest weapons given his ability to play just about any position on the ground.
The Wrap Up
Geelong should rightfully go in as favourites this week considering they have everything to play for, and could set up a do-or-die battle with Adelaide next week if results go its way. However, Collingwood is a dangerous opponent, particularly coming off such an embarrassing loss last week.
These two sides have had some epic encounters in recent years, and I’m expecting a cracking contest on Friday night. When these sides last played, Geelong blew Collingwood away early, but the Magpies were able to peg the game back and outscored the Cats in the second half.
Collingwood needs to start better, as it has let its opponents get off to good starts in recent weeks. It also cannot allow Geelong a head start like it did in round six. This is a young Magpies outfit, which has clearly had its confidence pricked. However, Collingwood cannot afford to just meekly scrape to the finish line this year. It needs to finish promisingly.
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