Round 20
Collingwood v SwansSCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7:30pm Weather: Min 8 Max 18 Chance of rain 20%: <1mm Wind: SE 12kph Betting: Collingwood $3.00 Swans $1.40 |
Collingwood is currently in eleventh, on the wrong side of the top eight by six points. Finals are still a possibility, but a loss this weekend all but rules out any hope for the Magpies. On the other side, a loss to Geelong on the weekend has seen Sydney replaced in the top four by the Western Bulldogs. A loss this week makes Sydney’s top four aspirations very difficult.
It is a battle between two sides that have faded away drastically in the second half of this season. Collingwood has won only one of its past seven games, whilst Sydney has only won one of its last four games.
I said in my preview last week that Collingwood’s game against Carlton had all the makings of a scrappy affair. It surely lived up to my tip. Despite this, four points was all that was needed and the Magpies walked away with an ugly victory. After six straight losses, the Magpies just needed to get across the line any way they could. They will fancy themselves against Sydney, given the Swans are also in average form and prior history indicates a strong advantage for the Magpies, having won 13 of the last 15 encounters.
In Sydney’s favour is the fact that the game will be played at the SCG. Collingwood is accustomed to playing Sydney at the larger ANZ Stadium, so there will be very few players who have ever played on the much smaller SCG. It is something Collingwood needs to adjust to very quickly, as the Swans are the masters of playing on their home turf.
Recent History
As stated above, the Magpies have had the wood over the Swans over recent years. You have to cast your memory back to round two 2014 for the last time these two clubs played. Collingwood won by 20 points, with Scott Pendlebury starring with 33 disposals and a goal (earning him the three Brownlow votes). Dayne Beams was also important with 30 disposals (polling the two votes), whilst Dan Hannebery was Sydney’s best with 29 disposals, earning him the one vote. In a low scoring game, three goals from Jamie Elliott also proved vital.
At the Selection Table
In a huge boost for the Magpies, Travis Cloke looks set to return after missing three matches with a calf injury. He has trained strongly for the past two weeks, and only needs to pull up well from training to earn selection. In other promising news, Jesse White starred at VFL level last week with four goals, and could return to complete Collingwood’s dream forward line setup. This may put pressure on youngster Darcy Moore, and it will be interesting to see how many talls coach Nathan Buckley decides to select.
In other selection news, Tyson Goldsack returned strongly to the VFL last week following knee tendonitis issues, and is available for recall. Patrick Karnezis and Ben Kennedy again dominated against the Northern Blues to keep their names at the front of the selectors minds, whilst Jarrod Witts responded well to his omission and played a complete game in the ruck. Sam Dwyer, Jordan De Goey and Adam Oxley were all rested last week and will be available for selection as well. There are real selection headaches again for Buckley, which will be pleasing after a difficult month with injuries.
the focus onto Sydney, the Swans will be reeling after Lance Franklin has been ruled out of this week’s match. He did not play last round with a back complaint, and was unable to train this week. The six day break may also prove costly for Ben McGlynn and Mike Pyke who trained this week but are no certainties to return. Gary Rohan is also available for selection, but he will most likely return via the NEAFL to regain match fitness.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies were a lot better against Carlton last week, and the tackling intensity and forward line pressure was back to a high level. The ball movement inside 50 was also much improved, as the Magpies were able to spot up targets up forward and hit the scoreboard with more regularity. Buckley described it as an “ugly” win post match and there are still a lot of issues for Buckley to clean up prior to taking on the Swans this week.
Collingwood did a lot right, despite at times lacking polish. In so many circumstances, a good passage of play was undone by one costly error. Whether it was a dropped mark or an errant disposal, there was a general sloppiness about the game from both sides. The Magpies got away with this against a lowly ranked team, but won’t against Sydney.
The other concern was how dominant Marc Murphy and Patrick Cripps were through the middle. The Magpies had no answers, with both Levi Greenwood and Jack Crisp attempting but not succeeding in playing shut-down roles. Whilst Sydney’s midfield has not fired in recent weeks, the likes of Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker and Tom Mitchell can run riot if the Magpies are unable to tighten up their on-ball structures quickly. Collingwood cannot afford to allow Sydney the easy clearances which it allowed Carlton.
Player Focus
Dane Swan – He may be the oldest player on the Collingwood list, but Swan was the difference last week. His 41 disposals and 3 goals will surely earn him best on ground honours when Brownlow votes are read out at the end of the year. He was clean when others weren’t, and he imposed himself when the game required it. His body may not be as strong as it once was, but there is no denying his competitiveness and desire to win. Statistically, it was Swan’s best game in two years. With so many youngsters in the team beginning to fatigue, Swan’s consistency sets him apart.
Jarryd Blair – After been omitted in round eighteen, Blair was in real danger of allowing younger players to overtake him. However, he went back and dominated at VFL level which earned him an immediate recall. He made the most of his opportunity last round picking up 22 disposals and also kicking a goal. Blair is not in the side to record huge statistics, but his role is to harass and cause forward line pressure. Nonetheless, he still needs to hit the scoreboard to stay relevant. Earlier in the year, he was able to do this consistently, but his form tapered against the stronger sides. Last week was a really promising sign, but it must be noted it was against a weaker opposition. He needs to back up this performance against Sydney this week to cement his spot again.
Jonathon Marsh – Many have been waiting a long time for Marsh to debut, and the hype was well and truly justified last week when the call-up was finally granted. He attacked the ball with real ferocity and was not afraid to take the game on. At VFL level, he has developed a reputation of using his extreme pace to break away from defence, as well as using his size and aggression as a tight-checking full back. He is a truly tantalising prospect for the Magpies. Originally brought to the club as a forward who could potentially play in the midfield, he has proven he can play as a key defender. Anything is possible for Marsh as he continues to develop. Along with Matt Scharenberg, Tom Langdon and Brayden Maynard, there is a real youthful mix in defence which is providing a real peak into the club’s future.
Focus on Sydney
The Swans have such a potent midfield, however it has been largely firing blanks over the last month apart from a strong performance against Adelaide two weeks ago. In the second half last round, Geelong totally obliterated the Swans through the midfield. The forward line was also rendered impotent, only managing to kick one goal in the second half. Stars like Luke Parkerand Dan Hannebery were held to 20 disposals or less, whilst the only multiple goal scorer was Lewis Jetta.
John Longmire has put the onus on his midfield to lift this week. However, Longmire also needs big games out of Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid up forward, especially with Franklin out of the side again. Tippett has been playing as the main ruckman, which has limited his goal-scoring influence. If Mike Pyke is available for return, this may help restructure the forward line as Tippett can play as a permanent forward. However with Pyke no certainty to return, the Swans need more out of Reid in the absence of Franklin.
Player Focus
Josh Kennedy – The Swans have been down in form through the midfield in recent weeks, but Josh Kennedy is one who can hold his head high. He was again very good last week, picking up 32 disposals and five tackles. Kennedy typically plays well against Collingwood, and looms as a massive threat given how dominant Patrick Cripps was against the Magpies last round. Kennedy has put together a very solid season, averaging 29.4 disposals and six tackles, whilst also kicking nine goals. I expect a head-to-head matchup with either Crisp or Greenwood.
Dan Hannebery – Hannebery was very quiet by his standards last week, only picking up 19 disposals. Despite this, he has had a remarkable year and looms as the greatest threat to Nat Fyfe for the Brownlow Medal. With an average of 30 disposals, five tackles and just under a goal a game, Hannebery’s work rate is elite, as is his hardness. He is almost impossible to stop given how hard he attacks contests, and will be keen to lift after a disappointing match last week. Along with Kennedy, he looms as Sydney’s most dangerous player this weekend.
Nick Smith – He is not one of Sydney’s highest rated players, but I believe he is one of the most underrated. He gets the job every week on the most dangerous small forward, and typically shuts them down. He will likely go to the in-form Alex Fasolo or the dangerous Jamie Elliott this week. Whilst he is never a huge possession winner, he is as consistent as they come and rarely gets beaten.
The wrap up
The winner of this game will gain a lot of momentum in the final month of the Home and Away season, whilst the loser will be left with a lot of questions to answer. If Sydney loses, it will be legitimately written off as a premiership aspirant by most experts, whilst Collingwood may as well start planning for 2016 as a finals berth will be next to impossible.
I have a sneaky feeling about Collingwood this week. Whilst last week’s win offered me no confidence that the Magpies are anywhere near close to regaining the momentum from the first half of the year, I think it was a huge sigh of relief to finally win again, and may have released the pressure valve slightly. The Magpies will consider the Swans vulnerable, and basically have a free hit at them with not much to lose given finals are already nearly out of reach anyway. However, if the Magpies can cause an upset this week, then finals come back into calculations again and the confidence will be restored.
Just be wary of Sydney though. A lot of experts have already written the side off. This is dangerous given this Sydney side has continually defied the critics time and time again. With or without Franklin, The Swans are a star-studded unit and is almost unbeatable at the SCG. The Magpies have such a young side, and a victory this week would be a massive result.
Collingwood always plays well against the Swans, and I’m tipping an upset.
Pies by 8 points.
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