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Round 19 looms as a really defining weekend of football, with the Magpies clash against the Blues one of a number of games that will have huge bearings on the make-up of the AFL Ladder. After sitting in the top four at the half-way mark of the season, Collingwood has lost six straight games and has plummeted to eleventh spot. The opponent this week is sixteenth-placed Carlton who has also been very poor in recent weeks.
A month ago, this game was one most pundits would have put down as a certain Collingwood victory. However after six straight losses, no win seems certain at the moment – especially against a bitter rival which has nothing to lose. Collingwood just simply need to grind out a win this week which might go a long way to restoring confidence.
There has been a lot of analysis as to why Collingwood’s season has come to such a dramatic halt. Comparisons have been made to last season, where the Magpies slipped from the exact same position to miss the finals. Regardless of what has been written, I still have a lot of faith that this Collingwood side is tracking in the right direction, and the youth that is coming through looks really promising.
In my opinion, the form slump can be explained very simply. Collingwood threw everything it had into a difficult month following the mid-season bye, a month in which it faced the best sides in the competition. In each match Collingwood came very close to winning, and arguably gained a lot of admirers in the process. However, it ultimately took no points away from this month, and instead found itself with a number of key injuries and the deflated confidence which comes hand-in-hand with losing consecutive football matches.
By The Numbers
Collingwood and Carlton is the touchpoint for all rivalries in Australian football. The two old foes will face off for the 251st time in front of another huge crowd at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. Collingwood Media breaks down the facts and figures that help make up the story of two of the game’s most famous clubs. 9,153,410 – People to have watched Collingwood and Carlton matches since 1920. 121,696 – The largest crowd to attend a VFL/AFL match, let alone a Collingwood-Carlton match, at the 1970 Grand Final at the MCG. 88,181 – People crammed into the MCG to witness Simon Prestigiacomo unfurl the 2010 premiership pennant before the Magpies accounted for the Blues by 28 points in round three, 2011. Jarryd Blair kicked five and Dane Swan had 34 disposals. 40,939– The smallest crowd between the two clubs since 2000 (in round 15, 2014). 16,678 – Fans made their way to the MCG for a pre-season match between the two clubs on New Year’s Eve, 1999. It was Mick Malthouse’s first game of any sort as Collingwood coach. 2000 – The last year the two clubs met in the home and away season at a venue other than the MCG (Princes Park). 1992 – The last time the two clubs met at Waverley Park (Collingwood won by 16 points). 1986 – The last year the two clubs faced off at Victoria Park. 1970 – Perhaps the game’s most famous Grand Final. We won’t say any more… 1910 – The only year in which the Magpies defeated the Blues in a Grand Final (by 14 points in front of 42,577 at the MCG). 1892 – The year the two clubs met for the first time in any capacity. Carlton won by a goal at Victoria Park on 7 May. 542 – Disposals Dane Swan has won during his 19 games against Carlton since 2004. It is his highest cumulative tally against any club. 250 – Times the two clubs have met since the beginning of the VFL in 1897. 215 – Games Heath Scotland played for Carlton after leaving Collingwood at the end of 2003. 125 – Occasions Carlton has had the better of Collingwood. 180 – Carlton’s highest score against the Magpies since 1897 (28.12 180), kicked in round 18, 2000. 121 – Times Collingwood has prevailed over the Navy Blues. 114 – Goals kicked by Gordon Coventry in 31 games against Carlton. 111 – Carlton’s record winning margin against Collingwood, recorded at Princes Park in round 18, 2000. 108 – Collingwood’s greatest ever winning margin in a game against Carlton. The record was achieved on a Friday night at the MCG in round 18, 2002. Nathan Buckley was named best afield in his 200th AFL game while Josh Fraser kicked six goals. 101 – The cumulative winning margin in Collingwood’s two victories over Carlton in 2010. 89 – The cumulative winning margin in Collingwood’s two victories over Carlton in 1990. 78 – Times Peter McKenna put the Sherrin through the big sticks in his 20 games against Carlton. 44 – The point deficit Carlton had to overcome to beat Collingwood in the 1970 Grand Final. 38 – Carlton’s winning margin in the 1988 Qualifying Final. 31 – Disposals won by Shane O’Bree in his first match for Collingwood against Carlton in round three, 2000 (three of which were goals). 22 – Finals played between the two teams. Carlton has won 14, Collingwood has won eight. 22 – Men to have represented both Collingwood and Carlton during their playing careers since 1897. 22 – Times the two clubs have met to decide the Peter Mac Cup. Since 1993, the match has been an annual event that helps raise funds for the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre. Collingwood has triumphed ten times and Carlton twelve. 18 – Months on the sidelines. That was the penalty handed down to Jack Shorten (Collingwood) and Percy Sheehan (Carlton) following the infamous brawl in the 1910 Grand Final. 15 – Times Mick Malthouse was victorious over Carlton while coach of Collingwood (2000-2011). 12 – Goals kicked by Brendan Fevola against the Magpies in the Millenium Match on New Year’s Eve, 1999. 9 – Carlton’s winning streak against the Pies (registered between 1905 and 1909). 9 – Goals kicked by Collingwood in the second quarter to turn a 14-point deficit into a 16-point lead over Carlton in round 21, 2006. 8 – Goals kicked by Carlton’s Simon Beaumont against Collingwood in the first half of round 17, 1999. 8 – Seasons spent by Bill Strickland at Carlton in the VFA before becoming Collingwood’s inaugural VFL captain in 1897. 7 – Bounces taken by Mighty Mick McGuane as he ran into goal against Carlton at the MCG in round two, 1994. 7 – Collingwood’s longest winning streak against the Blue Baggers (achieved between 1897 and 1899). 7 – Goals kicked by the Magpies in a nasty loss to the Blues in wet conditions in round three, 2002. By season’s end, Collingwood would be nine-points shy of a premiership and Carlton moored at the foot of the ladder. 6 – Goals kicked by Craig Starcevich in only his second senior game against the Blues in a seven point loss at Waverley Park in round two, 1987. 6 – Collingwood’s winning margin in the first meeting between the two clubs in the first season of the VFL in round seven, 1897. 6 – Times the two sides have met on Grand Final day. 3 – Goals (and eight possessions) kicked by Gavin Brown in the opening quarter before injuring his hamstring against Carlton in round three, 2000. 3 – Goals kicked by little-known Blue forward Justin Davies in just six minutes to help Carlton upset the Magpies in round seven, 2004. 3 – Goals kicked by Peter McKenna in his one game for Carlton against Collingwood (round six, 1977). 3 – Games played by Magpie marvel Mick McGuane during his one year at Carlton in 1997. 2 – Games played for Carlton in 1913 by a man named Harry Curtis, who would later go on to become Collingwood’s President after 122 games in the Black and White. 1 – Broken jaw suffered by Nathan Buckley in a clash with Justin Murphy on Easter Monday, 1999. 1 – Game played by Brent Hall, the man the Magpies drafted out of South Fremantle with the selection they received from Carlton in exchange for Heath Scotland at the end of 2003 (No. 35 overall). 1 – United States Army general to visit the Collingwood change rooms before a game against Carlton. ‘Stormin’ Norman Schwarzkopf addressed the Magpies before their meeting with the Blues in round 19, 1997. |
The Blues on the other hand have had the season from hell. Following the sacking of Mick Malthouse as senior coach, John Barker took control and enjoyed a honeymoon period with a pair of wins and some other really promising efforts. Despite the encouraging signs early, this has quickly ended, with five consecutive losses, including thumpings in the last two rounds at the hands of Hawthorn and North Melbourne. With key players such as Bryce Gibbs, Andrew Walker and Dale Thomas injured, a lot of emphasis has now been placed on developing youth and rebuilding the list.
There is plenty of incentive for Carlton to win this week. The Blues tend to lift for games against Collingwood and there are a number of players with careers on the line. Additionally, if Barker is going to remain a candidate for the Carlton coaching job, he needs better results to increase his chances.
Carlton has been a lot more competitive in the second half of the year than it was in the first half. The Blues have played with more freedom and there have been really promising signs from younger players who perhaps were not getting enough opportunities under the former regime. Barker will have his side fired up this week after a disappointing result on the weekend, and you get the feeling that the Blues sense Collingwood is vulnerable given the recent formline.
The game will be played on a traditional Saturday afternoon at the MCG, which should mean a decent crowd in attendance. Weather is forecasted to be cold, but at this stage it should be fine conditions.
Recent History
The Pies have dominated Carlton in recent years, with the Blues having not beaten Collingwood since round fifteen 2012.
The sides last met in round five this season, in a match where Mick Malthouse broke the all-time coaching games record. That’s where the celebrations ended for Carlton, with the Magpies recording a humiliating 75 point victory against the hapless Blues. It may not have been the final game for Mick Malthouse as a senior coach, but the result arguably begun the process which ultimately led to his sacking.
Scott Pendlebury was best afield with 32 disposals and two goals, whilst Taylor Adams was also prominent with 27 disposals. Jack Crisp and Adam Oxley had big games, whilst Travis Cloke and Jamie Elliott kicked two goals each. Marc Murphy was the only Blue who could hold his head up high with 26 disposals.
At the Selection Table
Nathan Buckley has some big decisions to make this week, especially considering Travis Cloke is not expected to have recovered from his calf injury. The Magpies have had to find alternate ways to structure the forward line in his absence and this has potentially resulted to season-low figures for scoring and marks inside 50.
Buckley may turn to injury-prone Ben Reid who has now completed two consecutive full games at VFL level. Jesse White was quiet in tough conditions in the VFL last week, but is available if Buckley decides to opt for a taller forward line this week, or drop a ruckmen. Tyson Goldsack was a very late withdrawal last week after he suffered an injury in the warm-up. He will face a fitness test before the game, but has trained well so far this week. Matthew Scharenberg was promising on debut, and will be difficult to displace.
Others in line for a recall include Jonathon Marsh, Ben Sinclair, Jarryd Blair, Clinton Young and Patrick Karnezis. Marsh in particular was adjudged best on ground in the VFL last week and has had a stellar year. His debut is edging closer, and this might be his lucky week. Sinclair has also returned well from a hamstring injury, and could be called on to add some pace out of defence.
At Carlton, expect Barker to keep pumping games into the Blues’ young players. Nick Holman has served his one game suspension and will be available, whilst Brad Walsh and Mark Whiley have been performing well at VFL level. Andrew Walker returned from injury via the VFL last week and got through the match well. He may need more time at this level, but is available if required.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood’s last fortnight has been particularly disappointing. There has been a clear drop off in a number of key areas of the game. Marks inside 50 and goals scored are two areas which have declined. The Magpies had 14 more inside 50s than Melbourne last weekend, but only scored seven goals for the game. Disposal efficiency has been down, with the Magpies at times looking stagnant out of their defensive half. Not only does Cloke straighten up the forward line, but he presents as an option coming off half back. It just gives the defenders and midfielders confidence to take the game on because they know there is the option of Cloke down the line. Buckley opted for a small forward line last week, with Darcy Moore the only recognised forward. After a five-goal performance in his third game, Moore was well held against the Demons. His quieter performance may should lead to Buckley selecting either Reid or White (or both) this week to provide a chop out.
Collingwood has its best possible midfield in at the moment, yet this has not translated to better contested possession numbers or clearances. The Magpies are young in their forward and backlines, so the experienced midfielders need to step up and take control around the stoppages. This should be Collingwood’s greatest strength.
Player Focus - Collingwood
Matthew Scharenberg – It has been a long wait, but Pies fans were finally able to see the club unleash it’s number 6 draft pick from 2013 last weekend. Scharenberg was once rated by Mark Williams as the best teenage footballer he had ever seen since Wayne Carey. However, serious foot injuries plagued the 19-year-olds first season at the club, and when he finally returned he suffered a knee injury which required a full reconstruction. Only eleven months on, Scharenberg made his debut as a late call up for the injured Tyson Goldsack. It was a less than orthodox introduction to AFL football, but the defender handled it with poise, recording 16 classy possessions. He has made a name at VFL level for his composure under pressure, and this definitely translated to AFL level. As he regains confidence in his knee and builds his fitness, he has the makings to be a real star of the competition. I expect Buckley to keep pumping games into him for the rest of the season, but we do have to be mindful of the amount of football Scharenberg has missed over the last two seasons, and the fact he is still building towards full fitness.
Darcy Moore – Following his break-out five goal game against the Western Bulldogs, Moore was held relatively quiet last week by the Demons defence. Despite this, he continued to fight hard, working high up the ground and marking well on the lead. He is skinny and raw, but his work-rate is enormous and he competes hard. When Cloke finally returns, the veteran should begin forming a really good partnership with Moore who is 199cm but has the agility of a midfielder. Importantly, Moore marks the ball at its highest point, making it impossible to defend given how long his arms are and how tall he is. He is the forward Collingwood has been screaming out for to assist Cloke. Nonetheless, until Cloke returns, Moore needs help.
Nathan Brown – Brown hasn’t received many accolades this year, but he has been a real rock in defence. It has been some time since Brown has had an injury free year, but so far he has played every game. With so many young players around him, Brown has been the general, taking on the monsters of the competition and rarely getting beaten. His form is reminiscent of his best year in 2010 and on Saturday he will most likely take the match-up against the improved Levi Casboult.
Focus on Carlton
With the retirement of Chris Judd, and injuries to other key midfielders, the Blues have struggled to win enough of the ball to remain competitive over four quarters. There has definitely been improvement though, especially with the emergence of players such as Patrick Cripps, Nick Graham and Tom Bell through the midfield. One area Carlton remains quite powerful in is clearances, where it ranks third in the competition. Collingwood sits in twelfth, so there is an opportunity for the Blues to get some ascendency in this area and put the young Collingwood defence under some early pressure.
I expect the Blues to be really active in the trade period, as they definitely need one more key position player to give the forward line more structure. They also need more star power through the midfield. On paper, the Magpies have a much stronger midfield and should dominate possession. However, Carlton will have watched Collingwood’s previous two matches and watched its midfield get out-hunted and out-run. The Blues will sense an opportunity here. If Carlton continues to dominate clearances and then takes the game on at all costs, this Collingwood midfield has shown vulnerabilities. Scoreboard pressure will be crucial if the Blues are to stay in touch with the Magpies.
Player Focus - Carlton
Patrick Cripps – Cripps has taken the competition by storm this year and is one of the leading candidates for the 2015 NAB Rising Star award. He has reportedly grown to 193cm, which makes him a threat both in the air and around stoppages. With an average of 22 disposals and 5.5 tackles a game, Cripps has quickly become the cornerstone of the Carlton midfield and the player the Blues will look to build around. With the retirement of Judd, it has been Cripps who has stepped up and filled this void. He is tenacious and has improved his endurance, which can make him almost unstoppable. I expect Buckley to use one of Taylor Adams or Levi Greenwoodto play a negating role to limit his influence.
Marc Murphy – In what has been a difficult year for the Blues, the Carlton skipper has led from the front. It has been a real challenge to his leadership, but I think he has handled it all with a level head. He is statistically having a really good year, averaging 27 disposals. Murphy has benefitted from the emergence of Cripps. He typically plays well against Collingwood, so expect him to be a real factor on Saturday.
Matthew Kreuzer – A good news story for Carlton to come out of the last month has been the return of Kreuzer. Blues fans could have been excused from giving up all hope that they would see their star ruckmen return to the field this year, however he is finally over his injury problems and has found some good form. He is strong in the air and gives them a target to kick to. The Magpies have struggled in the ruck over the past month, so Kreuzer is a real weapon for Carlton on Saturday. He still isn’t back to his absolute best, and Carlton fans will be forecasting ahead in hoping he can finally put together an uninterrupted pre-season in 2016. For now, they will simply be rejoicing in the fact he is back playing some good football.
The Wrap Up
This has the makings of being a real scrappy, but entertaining game. Both sides are lacking confidence and are in a form slump. Whilst Collingwood is the better side on paper, the physical and mental toll of a difficult six weeks will be hard to overcome.
No matter how you look at it, Collingwood simply needs to win this game. Even if it can’t play its absolute best football, the Magpies need to scrap out a victory through sheer tenacity. I’m reminded a lot of Richmond last season who found itself in a real hole, one which it took half a season to dig itself out of. However, once it was able to scrape a victory, slowly momentum builded until the Tigers were absolutely unstoppable in the lead-in to finals. Collingwood needs to finish this year well, even if it does not make finals it needs to go into the pre-season brimming with confidence. A win this week is the only way to start building this momentum…even if it’s an ugly win.
Carlton will likely provide stubborn opposition. Whilst the Blues have been equally out of form, I am always cautious of a young side that smells blood. There is no doubt Carlton will be building this up as a winnable game given Collingwood’s form slump. It is an opportunity to rub salt into the wounds of a bitter rival. Despite this, I can’t see Carlton maintaining enough momentum over four quarters to beat the Magpies this week. Therefore, Collingwood needs to remain patient and hold the Blues if they get on a run. Eventually, the strength of the Collingwood midfield should prevail. If the Magpies can avoid panic and go into the game with a level head, there should be an important victory as a reward.
Pies by 35 points
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