Preview Round 4: Collingwood v Melbourne

AFL

SUMMARY

Round 4 COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE Sunday April 17, 3:20pm MCG 7mate 4:00pm (delay) Fox Sports 3:00pm Weather: Min 12 Max 17 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: SSW 25kph Betting: Collingwood $1.55 Melbourne $2.45

For the first time in perhaps a decade, Melbourne will enter a clash with Collingwood as, at worst, an even-money bet – and at best, outright favourite. This says as much about the Demons' development as it does about the Magpies' unexpectedly poor output. A concern for the tipsters though is Melbourne's wildly fluctuating form – a round-one win over Greater Western Sydney was followed by an embarrassing loss to Essendon, before coming within a whisker of upsetting North Melbourne. Will this rollercoaster pattern continue with another Demon downer? Both teams have leaked goals, but the Demons appear to have better system and more potency in attack. However, it's difficult to see the Pies dropping another game that was regarded as a gimme before the season started.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R18, 2015, Melbourne 13.13 (91) d Collingwood 7.12 (54) at the MCG
2. R10, 2015, Collingwood 17.8 (110) d Melbourne 13.7 (85) at the MCG
3. R12, 2014, Collingwood 8.13 (61) d Melbourne 3.10 (28) at the MCG
4. R11, 2013, Collingwood 17.20 (122) d Melbourne 5.9 (39) at the MCG
5. R11, 2012, Collingwood 19.15 (129) d Melbourne 13.9 (87) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Melbourne will be aiming to win consecutive games against Collingwood for the first time since they won successive Queen's Birthday clashes in 2006 and 2007.
   
2. The Pies are struggling in a number of important areas – they are ranked 16th in disposals, 15th in inside 50s, 16th in clearances, last in inside 50s and 15th in points scored.
   
3. Last week against North Melbourne the Demons kicked their highest score under Paul Roos, 20.11 (131), which was also their highest total since round four, 2013.
   
4. When these teams last met, Demon midfielder Bernie Vince was best-afield with 30 disposals and three goals, and teammate Jesse Hogan kicked three goals, while the now-sidelined Dane Swan was the Pies' best with 36 touches.
   
5. Despite the most recent result, Collingwood has dominated Melbourne over a long period of time, with their past 11 clashes resulting in nine Pies wins, one loss and a draw.
   
6. Since the end of last season, Demon ruckman Max Gawn has risen in the Schick AFL Player Ratings from No. 319 to No. 244, rocketing 36 places after last week's effort against North Melbourne alone.
   

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…

Jeremy Howe faces his former club for the first time, and it doesn't seem it will be the gentle stroll in the park it promised to be just a few weeks ago. Howe will cop some backlash from Dees fans and will be keen to improve upon his inconspicuous debut for the Pies in the loss to St Kilda.

PREDICTION:Collingwood by 11 points