| Round 4 COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE Sunday April 17, 3:20pm MCG 7mate 4:00pm (delay) Fox Sports 3:00pm Weather: Min 12 Max 19 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: S 23kph Betting: Collingwood $1.45 Melbourne $2.70 |
After such a thrilling victory against Richmond in round two, Collingwood's rollercoaster start to the season took a nose-dive last week with a disappointing 29-point-loss to St Kilda. The scoreboard flattered the Magpies as the Saints dominated nearly every statistical category. Collingwood's defensive structures shut down and it has been recognised since that the showing was a very lacklustre performance.
The Magpies get a chance to make amends this week against Melbourne, a team set to be a very tricky assignment. Melbourne played some really good football last week against North Melbourne and nearly pulled off an upset victory in blustery conditions in Tasmania.
The Demon's start to the season has mirrored Collingwood's, in that it has been extremely unpredictable. Paul Roos' side was quite good against GWS in round one, but had an embarrassing loss against Essendon in the following week. After a terrible first quarter last week, the Demons piled on nine goals in the second quarter and probably should have gone on to win the game against the more experienced North Melbourne side. Melbourne fans will no doubt be wondering which side will run out onto the field this weekend.
Melbourne could quite rightfully enter this game as favourites for the first time in a decade against Collingwood. Although neither side has been consistent this year, the Demons have probably played the better football over the opening three rounds. The winner of this match will even the ledger in terms of wins and losses, whilst the loser will sit on one win and three losses. There's no arguing that it's a crucial game for both sides.
Recent History
Collingwood's recent history against Melbourne has been dominant. However, the last time these two sides met was in round eighteen last year where it was the Demons who walked away with an emphatic 37-point victory. The star of the show was Bernie Vince who had 30 disposals and booted three goals. Dane Swan was Collingwood's best play with 36 disposals, whilst Max Gawn polled one Brownlow vote for a dominant display in the ruck. Jesse Hogan was also a big influence, kicking three goals.
Earlier in the year, these two sides also squared off on the Queen's Birthday, where the result was much more favourable for the Magpies who ran out 25-point victors. Travis Cloke was a major talking point, kicking a career-high seven goals. Bernie Vince was again destructive with 34 disposals and two goals, whilst Nathan Jones polled one vote for 34 touches and two majors. Adam Oxley was the other big factor of the game, taking 14 marks as a spare in defence which helped turn the game in Collingwood's favour.
Focus on Collingwood
For the third week in a row, the Magpies were comfortably beaten in most statistical categories against the Saints. When it happens once, you can call it an anomaly. However, after three consecutive matches, it has now become a trend. I think we were all expecting the Magpies to flick a switch and all of a sudden start dominating games. However, finding form again may be gradual and challenging process. It needs to start with the basic fundamentals and the results will follow.
The biggest focus this week for the Magpies will be defensive effort and structure. Collingwood laid only two tackles inside forward 50 last week, with key forwards struggling to fire. The Magpies also sagged back with their zone, allowing the Saints too much time to find targets and turn defence into attack (the Saints took 19 marks inside forward 50).
Clearances have also been an issue. If Collingwood can get this basic things right and be harder at the football, the rest should flow from that. Collingwood has a favourable draw over the next month, so just needs to grind out a couple of victories to set up the season. Saying that, there are no easy games right now and the Magpies need to focus on applying pressure and defending.
Player Focus
Jeremy Howe – Howe had a quiet start in his first game for the Magpies, but still managed to kick a goal and he was one of the few who applied defensive pressure in the forward line. He plays his old team this week and will be keen to impress. Howe will play a vital role for Collingwood this year up forward, particularly with Elliott and Swan out for extended periods. He has the potential to present as a dangerous option inside forward 50.
Scott Pendlebury – The Magpies need leadership this week, so expect the skipper to lead from the front. Statistically, Pendlebury has been solid, however there is no doubt he has battled after he sustained a heavy knock in round one. He has played a lot from half back early this season, a position where his decision making is an asset. He'll likely spend a lot of time in defence again this week, but he'll be needed in the midfield as well. He needs to stamp his authority on this game, and carry his younger teammates with him.
Adam Oxley – After been overlooked for selection in round one, Oxley has returned to the side in the last fortnight and has played some really good football. His overhead marking continues to be a feature, and his foot-skills have been really solid. He had his breakout game against Melbourne last season, so should be pretty confident that he can produce a repeat performance this week.
Focus on Melbourne
The Demons have built a very tough midfield, full of young contested bulls who don't take a backward step. However, the criticism in the past has been about outside leg speed and ball movement. Paul Roos has seemingly addressed this issue over the off-season, and Melbourne has been taking the game on a lot more. It kicked its highest score under Roos last week with 131 points, but unfortunately conceded 135 the other way. When the Demons get on a roll though, they can be very hard to stop.
Nathan Jones and Bernie Vince have been really dominant against the Magpies in recent history. The absence of Vince this week is a huge loss. Collingwood may consider sending Levi Greenwood to do a tagging job on Jones. If Jones is quiet, the rest of the Melbourne midfield is very young so it will be a big test this week for the younger players to step up.
There is so much to like about the way Melbourne played last week. The Kangaroos are considered to possess one of the strongest midfields in the competition, yet Melbourne had 44 more disposals, 12 more inside 50's and 32 more contested possessions. The young Demons midfield outhunted the Kangaroos and totally dominated for large periods of the game. This is an ominous sign for Collingwood as it has been very poor in all these areas all season.
Player Focus
Max Gawn – Statistically, Gawn had one of the more phenomenal games you ever could see from a ruckman last week. He had 18 disposals, 61 hitouts and booted two goals. Gawn was one of the main reasons the Demons dominated in the midfield, as his hit-outs to advantage were a real feature, and he gave players such as Jack Viney first look at the football on every occasion. If Gawn can again dominate, the Demons are going to be very hard to shut down through the middle as they are such a good clearance side.
Ben Kennedy – The former Magpie has settled in nicely at Melbourne and looks to have cemented his spot in the starting 22. We all know Kennedy is quick and hard at the football, however he has seemingly really worked on his disposal over the off-season and has been hitting the scoreboard regularly. He adds a different dimension to the Demons forward line with his ability to burst from a stoppage and his aggressive tackling.
Clayton Oliver – Oliver was a draft bolter last year and many were surprised the Demons took him as high as they did. Oliver didn't play in the under 18 championships, but had a dominant finish to the TAC Cup season. He was raw, but the upside was enormous. He has quickly adapted to the AFL system and has already earned a Rising Star nomination. He was fantastic again last week with 26 disposals and two goals to be one of Melbourne's best players. Keep an eye out for Oliver this weekend as he is such a bull in the contests and has real x-factor about him.
The Wrap Up
This is an opportunity for both sides to even the ledger at two wins and two losses. I expect a much more spirited performance from the Magpies this week. However, it is facing a hungry opposition which thrives on the contest. Therefore, simply lifting the effort may not be enough to get over the line against the Demons. The Magpies need to significantly improve in all facets of the game.
A week is a long time in football, and the potential inclusions of Varcoe and Sidebottom will provide a spark into Collingwood's side. Historically, the Magpies always respond when the pressure has been on, and I think this will be no exception. For all the analysis on structure, Collingwood simply needs to focus on the basics of wanting the football more and applying more pressure.
Pies by eight points
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