Preview Round 5: Collingwood v Essendon

AFL

SUMMARY

Round 5 COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON Monday April 25, 3:20pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 3:00pm Weather: Min 12 Max 24 Chance of rain 10%: < 1mm Wind: N 23kph Betting: Collingwood $1.41 Essendon $2.90

Just weeks ago there was concern that this clash, long viewed as the showpiece minor-round event, would deteriorate into a fizzer of the highest order. Such was the crippling nature of the doping penalties dished out to 12 Bombers. So the change in fortunes is almost inconceivable. With Essendon showing admirable steel and system and Collingwood showing little of either, it wouldn't surprise if the slapped-together Dons chalked up their second win and moved a game clear of the Pies. Many Bombers are exceeding expectations, while most Magpies have slipped dreadfully below standards. Whatever transpires, it shouldn't be the walkover we feared.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R23, 2015, Essendon 14.11 (95) d Collingwood 14.8 (92) at the MCG
2. R4, 2015, Collingwood 9.15 (69) d Essendon 6.13 (49) at the MCG
3. R17, 2014, Essendon 16.7 (103) d Collingwood 5.9 (39) at the MCG
4. R6, 2014, Collingwood 12.11 (83) d Essendon 8.12 (60) at the MCG
5. R19, 2013, Collingwood 20.13 (133) d Essendon 7.12 (54) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. The Bombers are the lowest scoring side so far in 2016 managing only 58 points per game, kicking 10 or more goals in a game only once.
2. Collingwood won the Anzac Day clash last year but Essendon dominated the stats. The Bombers won the disposals 420-338 and marks 116-73, 104 of which were uncontested, but managed only six goals.
3. Uncontested possessions have been a big part of the Bombers' game this season, being ranked second in this area with 281.8 a game, while Collingwood is ranked 15th with an average of 217.
4. This will be the 22nd Anzac Day contest between the sides, with Collingwood holding sway with 12 wins to eight, while there has been one draw. The Magpies have won eight of the past 10.
5. Collingwood and Essendon will meet for the 233rd time, with the Magpies leading with 127 wins to 101. There have been four draws.
6. For the first time since round 21, 2013, Essendon midfielder David Zaharakis is back inside the top 100 in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. He was as high as No. 44 in mid-2012.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…

Any number of under-siege Magpies, including coach Nathan Buckley, who is carrying the can for the Pies' unexpected form slump. And Buckley has put the heat on underperforming spearhead Travis Cloke, who is in doubt on two fronts – he has an elbow problem and is no longer guaranteed a spot in the Pies' line-up. If he gets the nod, memories of Anzac Days past might well get a rise out of the Magpie man-mountain, who has tallied 23 goals in 10 of these encounters.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 9 points