| Round 5 COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON Time Place TV: Monday April 25, 3:20pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 3:00pm Weather: Min 12 Max 24 Chance of rain 5%: < 1mm Wind: N 26kph Betting: Collingwood $1.41 Essendon $2.90 |
After four rounds of the home and away season, this year's match is actually shaping as one of the more intriguing ANZAC Day games in recent history.
Collingwood is in a form slump, whilst Essendon has been a lot more competitive than most were expecting. It's make or break time for the Magpies this Monday.
This match is not going to be a walkover, and I get the impression that the Bombers sense they can score a second victory for the season.
No matter which way you look at it, Collingwood has been disappointing in so many aspects. It's impossible to pick up a newspaper this week without finding a critique of Collingwood's form. For all the analysis, though, to me, the biggest problem plaguing Collingwood right now is lack of confidence. In many ways, the Magpies were quite good in the second half last week, but sloppy mistakes and poor turnovers eliminated any hope of getting back into the match. Unfortunately, confidence is not an ingredient that can simply be bottled. It's going to be a hard grind for the Magpies to regain form.
But it could be a big tackle or a big mark that ignites the side. Collingwood needs a spark this week, and ANZAC Day is just the stage for it to happen.
If we turn the focus onto Essendon, there is no disputing that its start to the season has been pleasing. The Bombers have been competitive in every game this season, and have also already notched up a victory. It was always going to be a difficult year, but the improvement in players such as David Zaharakis, Zac Merrett, Orazio Fantasia, Marty Gleeson, Joe Daniher and Kyle Langford must have Bombers fans licking their lips for what could be in store next season when the senior players return from suspension.
Essendon was particularly good against Geelong last week, and at half time, an upset was on the cards. The Cats finally overpowered the Bombers in a dour struggle, but it was a warning to the competition that Essendon is not a side to be taken lightly.
Scott Pendlebury has already declared this game a mini-final, and I have no doubt that Essendon is treating the game in a similar vein. This is the biggest home and away game for the year, and an opportunity for both sides to regain a lot of respect on the big stage.
Recent History
Recent history is almost irrelevant as we head into this game, given the fact that Collingwood has such a long list of injuries and Essendon is missing twelve senior players through suspension.
That said, Collingwood has won four of the past five ANZAC Day clashes. When these sides last met in round 23 last year, it was Essendon who claimed the bragging rights. Although it was a dead-rubber, given both sides were out of finals contention, the Bombers stormed home to claim a thrilling three-point victory. Brent Stanton continued his domination over Collingwood with 30 possessions and three goals to poll the three Brownlow votes, while Taylor Adams was Collingwood's best with 33 disposals (polling two votes). Dyson Heppell polled one vote with 28 disposals.
At the Selection Table
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Scott Pendlebury and Jarryd Blair celebrate a goal in last year's ANZAC Day match.
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If Cloke is ruled out, it will pave the way for Collingwood's American Pie, Mason Cox, to debut. Essendon has an inexperienced defence, and the height of Cox will be a handful to counter. Tim Broomhead and Rupert Wills were again dominant in the VFL and have put their hand up for selection. Broomhead, in particular, adds class and pace, which has been severely lacking in recent weeks. Tyson Goldsack should be right to play after he was a late omission following illness, while Jonathon Marsh and Brayden Maynard also look set to be available for selection. Finally, Jack Frost was superb at VFL level last week and for mine is the logical replacement for Reid should he not pass his fitness test.
The Bombers, on the other hand, have a relatively healthy list at the moment. Jayden Laverde unfortunately injured his shoulder last week and will miss around two months, but apart from that, the injury list is really low. At VFL level, Ryan Crowley and Shaun McKernan impressed last week. McKernan, in particular, could provide some valuable assistance to Joe Daniher who was held really quiet last week, as well as assisting in the ruck. Courtney Dempsey and Jackson Merrett are other names with senior experience who could be called upon, as is Shaun Edwards.
Focus on Collingwood
After such a big build up to last week's game against Melbourne, I think everyone was expecting Collingwood to come out firing. The fact that the Magpies basically switched off for a 40 minute period in the first and second quarters was a real concern. In this time, Melbourne kicked nine goals to one.
Nevertheless, Collingwood was able to get back to basics and even the game up after this point. In general, statistics relating to contested football and disposals were a lot better, as was the tackling numbers. Clearance work was quite good (apart from centre clearances), and the Magpies were a much more difficult team to play against. If Collingwood can get these basic fundamentals right again this week for four quarters, the result should be a lot better.
But turnovers continue to plague the Magpies. Not only is Collingwood conceding far too many points on turnover, it isn't capitalising on opposition mistakes at all. Collingwood is last in the AFL for scores on turnovers, which either indicates the side isn't defending hard enough, or alternatively isn't making the most of opportunities. Ball movement from defence has also been very stagnant. This could largely be due to injuries to key players, but is also as a result of a lack of confidence to take the game on and a lack of work rate from players up the ground to present as a marking option.
It was good to see Collingwood dig in last week and do the basic things a lot better. Hopefully this is the first small step towards better results.
Player Focus
Brodie Grundy – Grundy faced a massive assignment last week against the in-form Max Gawn. Gawn was totally on top at quarter time, but to Grundy's credit, he fought back really hard after that. It was the best I've seen Grundy ruck all year, and he was jumping really aggressively at the ball. His work rate around the ground was also very high and he got involved in a lot of the play. It was a challenging day, but in general, he was really solid and he is one who can hold his head up high after last week's performance.
James Aish – Aish has slowly improved in each of his three games this year, and was really good last week with 20 disposals. He is ranked number one at the club for disposal efficiency which makes him very valuable given Collingwood's turnover woes. Aish is really composed with the ball and typically takes the safest option. As he gets more confidence, he'll begin to become a lot more damaging, but for now it has been pleasing to see his steady improvement with each game he plays in the Black and White.
Nathan Brown – Whilst I feel Brown hasn't quite reached the lofty standards he set last year, he has still been the cornerstone of the Collingwood defence. With the majority of his backline teammates injured around him, Brown has been the one constant in the side and is rarely beaten one on one. It has been difficult for Brown as the lack of midfield pressure has left the defence exposed a lot this season. He faces a huge task against Joe Daniher this week in what could be the most crucial match-up on the ground.
Focus on Essendon
So little was expected of the Bombers this year, particularly early as this new group of players learned to gel. Their competitiveness has been quite surprising and there is no doubt that the Bombers need to be taken seriously. Last week, Essendon caught the Cats napping and nearly caused an upset. It had 67 more disposals, nine more contested possessions, more marks and more clearances against a side that is considered to have one of the strongest midfields in the competition. Essendon's midfield, in particular, has been quite solid, but has probably lacked support from an understrength forward line.
While Essendon has been able to acquire top up players, the pleasing part of its season to date has been the fact that it is the existing players on the list that have really stood up. There has been very little reliance on top-up players, with only James Kelly, Mathew Stokes and Matt Dea solidifying their spots at this stage. Younger players such as Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett, Fantasia, Langford and Gleeson have really stood up in the middle, and experienced players such as Brendon Goddard, Zaharakis and Adam Cooney have led from the front. Perhaps the side is playing with a 'nothing to lose' attitude, or perhaps a lot of the tension has been released from the side after the troubles of the past three years. Whatever it is, the Bombers are playing competitive football and are going to have such a deep list once the twelve banned players return in 2017.
For all the positivity though, there are still some significant holes in the current list, with the backline in particular looking quite vulnerable. Fortunately, the midfield has been quite good so the backline hasn't been too exposed yet. The biggest issue though is the lack of attacking forward options. After Joe Daniher, there haven't really been any forwards hitting the scoreboard. The Bombers only scored 42 points last week and 51 the week before. Finding avenues to goal is going to be the challenge going forward as it is difficult to win games with such low scores. Even the win against Melbourne in round two came off the back of a score of 80, which is fairly modest given some of the huge scores been kicked this year.
Player focus
Zach Merrett - Merrett has played most of his early career as a high half forward that often pushes into the midfield. In the absence of so many star players, Merrett has been unleashed as a permanent midfield this year and the results have been outstanding. He is averaging 30 disposals a game and an impressive seven tackles. At only 20 years of age, Merrett has a bright future and will be the beneficiary of the added responsibility he has received this year.
David Zaharakis – After a few years struggling with injury and form, Zaharakis has exploded this year with the best month of football he has played in his career. Averaging 32 disposals, Zaharakis has been an inspiration to his teammates and is one of the main reasons why the Bombers have been so competitive this year. If Collingwood opts to tag anyone this week, I have no doubt that Zaharakis will be the main man identified to shut down. We all know he loves ANZAC Day as well.
Joe Daniher – After a real breakthrough game against Melbourne in round two where Daniher took 15 marks, the young forward has returned more modest statistics in the past fortnight. He is largely playing a lone hand in the forward line, and Geelong was able to totally blanket him last week. Daniher will need some help going forward, but in any event he has shown really promising signs this season. When he attacks the ball, his long reach is almost impossible to defend and he is a nightmare for anyone to match up on. He may still need to clean up his set shot kicking, but that should come with time. With Darcy Moore up one end, and Daniher up the other, it's an opportunity to see two of the best young forwards in the competition going head to head.
The Wrap-Up
It doesn't matter what form these two sides are in, ANZAC Day is always unpredictable. Although the ladder does not suggest that this match is going to reach any great heights, the fact is that both sides have so much to play for. Collingwood needs to get its season back on track quickly, or it could be over before it started. The pressure is on, as a loss to an under-strength Essendon side will be difficult to explain. On the other hand, this is a real opportunity for Essendon to take it up to a Collingwood side that is very vulnerable right now, and there is no doubt that the Bombers will smell blood.
Collingwood should start this week better than it has in recent weeks, but I am still expecting a very scrappy affair. While Collingwood's forward line has failed to fire this season, there is still enough firepower up there to concern the Essendon defence. Up the other end, the Bombers will need to find different avenues to goal if it is going to pinch a victory.
Based purely on recent form, Essendon has a real chance as it has probably played the better football. However, this is one game the Magpies simply cannot afford to lose, and I expect them to get over the line in a real scrap. It should be a really intriguing battle.
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