Collingwood v Richmond
Friday April 11, 7.50pmMCG Fox Footy / 7mate 7.30pm Weather: Min 15 Max 19 Chance of rain 90%: 1-5mm Wind: SSW 28kph Betting: Collingwood $1.60 Richmond $2.40 |
It is a bit early in the year to declare a match an eight-point game, however there is no doubt that there is a lot riding on the result this Friday night. After disappointing starts to the year, the winner will be able to square the ledger at two wins and two losses, while the loser will slump to 1-3.
Richmond was one of the big stories out of last weekend. For a side that was expected to challenge for top four this year, the Tigers have had shock losses to Gold Coast and Western Bulldogs in the opening three rounds. Richmond’s only win came against Carlton in a nail-biter. A win against the Magpies will help get the season back on track.
On the other hand, Collingwood has played three of last year’s top four sides in the opening rounds. Although this is a valid excuse for a slow start, Collingwood would be very disappointed with its ball movement and missed opportunities. This led to Luke Ball earlier in the week declaring that the Magpies are about a ‘5 out of 10’ so far and need to improve in a lot of areas quickly. The Magpies do not have the luxury of slowly regaining form with the Kangaroos and Bombers to follow in the upcoming matches.
It is a must win game against Richmond this Friday to at least even the ledger.
The heat will undoubtedly be on the loser of this match, while the winner will breathe a sigh of relief. So let’s delve into this week’s preview.
Recent History
These sides last met in round four last year. Travis Cloke led his team to a convincing 34-point victory. Cloke was rampant kicking seven goals and taking 14 marks. It was enough for him poll the three Brown votes, while Dane Swan polled the two votes for a 35-disposal game. Steele Sidebottom polled the one vote for his four goals for the game.
For Richmond, Trent Cotchin played a lone hand with 27 disposals while Jack Riewoldt featured with three goals.
Collingwood has also won its previous six encounters against Richmond. The Tigers, however, were dominant in the pre-season battle between these two sides and will have gained some confidence from this. Ben Reid was the best Magpie in the pre-season game with five goals but remains sidelined with injury.
At the Selection Table
Both Collingwood and Richmond are battling with injuries and it will be a race to have several key players fit in time for Friday night.
The six-day break may work against a few players hoping to prove their fitness.
Starting with the Magpies, and up to three changes may need to be made to cover Nick Maxwell and Sam Dwyer (who are under injury clouds) and Taylor Adams (who is suspended). A number of players performed strongly at VFL level last week, but it is important to note this was against the AIS-AFL Academy side, which is made up of underage players on the draft radar for next year.
Ben Kennedy has pushed his case with strong VFL performances and a strong pre-season and seems a logical replacement for either Dwyer or Adams.
Jarrod Witts could be an option to provide ruck support for Brodie Grundy or another forward option to help Travis Cloke.
Other players in line for selection include Tony Armstrong, after a 30 disposal game last week, and Josh Thomas (23 disposals), who I feel could be a substitute option.
Kyle Martin also continues to impress at VFL level but needs to be promoted off the rookie list in order to play senior football.
Other Magpies who remain sidelined include Ben Reid, Paul Seedsman, Ben Sinclair, Marley Williams and Nathan Brown.
Turning the focus onto Richmond, and Damien Hardwick will be without midfield playmaker Brett Deledio as he recovers from an Achilles injury.
Jake King (quad) and Nick Vlastuin (concussion) will also be monitored after sustaining injuries in the round three loss to the Western Bulldogs, while Shaun Hampson was absent from last week’s match due to injury.
Deledio, in particular, is a big out given the fact that the Tigers were beaten for large parts of last week through the midfield and appeared to miss his experience and seniority amongst his younger teammates. Alex Rance has also been ruled out whilst Ivan Maric is still a few weeks away.
The Tigers also have some depth waiting for their chance with Nathan Foley always a strong performer against the Magpies and new recruit Ben Lennon also awaiting his debut game.
Matt McDonough seems the closest to selection given the fact that he was rested after half time last week in the VFL to be on standby for the AFL match.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies put together a solid four-quarter effort last week against one of the better sides in the competition. Although outplayed for large chunks, the Magpies kept their intensity high and were able to close within five points with only minutes remaining in the match.
Although the effort was there, Buckley was left lamenting poor ball use and missed opportunities. What was also concerning is the fact that Collingwood was smashed through the midfield and the forward line was starved of opportunity.
Travis Cloke did not register a goal and Dane Swan, Dayne Beams and Scott Pendlebury did not have their usual influence. On the other hand, it was a great effort for Collingwood to get so close to winning without big inputs from these key players.
The spotlight will be on the Collingwood midfield this week to see if it can bounce back. Pleasingly though, Collingwood’s defensive structures have been quite good despite the fact that Ben Reid and Nathan Brown are out injured.
I felt the defence was a major issue for Collingwood heading into the season, but it seems as if this area has been addressed.
Surprisingly, Collingwood is ranked second last for clearances and third last for contested marks. These are two areas the Magpies are typically renowned for. These statistics would be largely due to the fact that Collingwood’s prime midfielders have been well down so far this year. It will be a big challenge against Richmond this week who is ranked second for clearances in 2014.
Player Focus
Jack Frost – Frost’s shutdown job on Lance Franklin in round two earned him a lot of praise and it would have given him a lot of confidence knowing he could match it with the competition’s best. He was brought back to earth in the fourth quarter last week by Tom Hawkins who kicked three last quarter goals and took the game away from the Magpies. In defence of Frost, there is not a defender in the competition that would’ve been able to stop Hawkins with the delivery he was getting. Frost was also very good for three quarters. There will be no let up for Frost, either, as he is likely to face Jack Riewoldt fresh off a four goal game last round. The Magpies would feel that if they could stop Riewoldt, the Tigers may struggle to kick a winning score.
Jamie Elliott – Undoubtedly the star of the night last week was Jamie Elliott who not only booted five goals, but also registered another contender for Mark of the Year. Elliott has gradually improved with each week, booting one, three and five goals respectively. Geelong players commented how quick Elliott is off the mark and how difficult a match-up he has become. He is clearly Collingwood’s number one small forward and he is quickly developing into a real star of the competition. He needs to keep working on his crumbing if he is to take the next step, but that area of his game also continues to improve. I feel he is likely to get Steven Morris as an opponent this week.
Alex Fasolo – After a year on the sidelines, ‘Fas’ returned to the senior side last week and was solid. He has been cast in the role of a defender this year as Buckley looks for good ball-users across half back to generate some attack. Although Fasolo needs to work on his defensive skills, his role is very important in the absence of Sinclair and Williams. It seems as if Buckley will continue to experiment with Fasolo down back, but it would be good to see him get a few opportunities up forward as well considering he is such a dangerous player near goals.
Steele Sidebottom – Along with Elliott, Sidebottom was one of the better players in the loss to Geelong last week. With 29 disposals and a goal, Sidebottom ran the game out hard and was one of the few Collingwood midfielders to find the ball regularly. It was perhaps his best game for the year to date after a sluggish start in the opening two rounds.
Focus on Richmond
Much of the talk this week has been about the role of Jack Riewoldt. After barely registering a stat last week to half time, Riewoldt was moved closer to goal in the second half and sparked a massive comeback. He kicked four goals and his teammates kicked to him seven times alone in the third quarter when going inside 50.
Hardwick is hell-bent on ensuring his forward line is unpredictable and numerous options are available to kick goals. However, it is clear to me that the team has more direction and plays with more confidence when the spearhead is up forward and kicking goals.
It will be interesting to see how Hardwick uses Riewoldt this week considering the success he enjoyed in the second half last week when he played inside 50.
Hardwick will consider it a real opportunity to stretch the inexperienced Collingwood defence this week with Tyrone Vickery and Ben Griffiths (both over 200cm tall) and Riewoldt. As eluded to earlier, Richmond has been strong in clearances this year, so if the ascendency can again be gained through the middle, then there is definitely the firepower up forward to worry Collingwood.
Trent Cotchin – A lot of emphasis was put on Jack Riewoldt’s role in the comeback last week, but it was the skipper Trent Cotchin who was chiefly responsible for the swing in momentum from the centre. After half time, Cotchin became dominant in the clearances, which was an area the Tigers were losing in badly. This allowed the forwards to have a greater impact. He had 28 disposals for the match, but it was his grunt work from stoppages that stood out. After an up and down 2013, Cotchin has started 2014 in great form, averaging 30 disposals and a goal a game. He will be the key for Richmond again if Deledio remains sidelined. Expect Brent Macaffer to be given the tagging job.
Ben Griffiths – Griffiths has taken a while to cement his spot in the side, but his early form in 2014 has been very promising and he is on the verge of really establishing himself in this Tigers side. At 200cm and with a booming kick, he is a real handful for defenders, especially with Riewoldt and Vickery by his side. Importantly, Griffiths has filled in admirably in the ruck in the absence of Ivan Maric (and last week Shaun Hampson) – he had 19 hitouts last round. Collingwood is currently undermanned in defence with the absence of Brown and Reid, so the three big talls up forward for the Tigers are going to pose a huge challenge.
Matt Thomas – After getting delisted from Port Adelaide, Thomas has taken his chances at Richmond since getting selected with pick 42 in the Rookie Draft. He has already established himself as a key member of the Richmond midfield. In his opening games as a Tiger, he has averaged 24 disposals and a whopping eight tackles per game. He could prove a vital asset considering he is a nuggetty in and under player, which in turn allows the likes of Cotchin and Deledio to play slightly more outside. It should significantly ease the burden on these players. Expect Thomas to go head to head against Luke Ball this round.
Dustin Martin – Martin has settled in and is playing some pretty good football without really standing out so far this season. He is spending a lot more time across half back and the Tigers try to get him the football at every opportunity as he can be such a playmaker in this position. Buckley will have the big decision whether to play his main tagger on Martin or Cotchin. If Martin wants to weave around half back, then putting a player like Macaffer on him is a good option because Macaffer is a decent lead up forward option. The issue with Martin is that he is equally adept at playing forward or midfield and he has played in all these roles so far this year, so it might be hard to find one player to handle him in every position.
The Wrap Up
Based purely on form, Collingwood probably deserves to be favourites because it pushed Geelong all the way last week. That said, the Tigers have a very strong midfield and good key forwards. This will worry the Magpies, considering the midfield has struggled in recent week and the defence is very young on paper.
Although not the end of the world, the loser will have a long way to come back to make finals and the winner will be right back in the hunt for a top eight position.
It is hard to go past Collingwood, but Richmond will be primed for this game and are not to be taken lightly.
Pies by 14 points.
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