Collingwood v Essendon
Friday April 25, 2.40pmMCG 7 / Fox Footy 2.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 21 Chance of rain 60%: 1-5mm Wind: N 19kph Betting: Collingwood 1.67 Essendon 2.20 |
Obviously though there’s a game to be played, and while it’s still just a game it’s of vital importance to the respective teams. Collingwood, the biggest sporting organisation in the land, come into this game with renewed vigour and confidence after two strong wins in a row, while Essendon come in on the back of two rather embarrassing losses. If history has taught us anything about this annual clash, ladder positions and form can be thrown out the window and anything can and probably will happen on the day. From the beginning, and that now famous draw, there’s been epic finishes to these matches on a regular basis, as shown by the 2009 and 2012 results. In 2009 in driving rain the Bombers David Zaharakis kicked the match winning goal with only seconds left, while in 2012 Magpie Jarryd Blair returned the favour with a scrambling last minute goal to return the favour. So be careful about digging too far into the form for this one, and maybe just sit back and enjoy another ANZAC day classic.
RECENT FORM
If you do take a look at recent form though, Essendon’s pales in comparison to any other finals contending team in the competition. After looking very good for the first three rounds of the season, Essendon then travelled to Perth in round 4 and from the moment they landed everything seemed to go wrong. From players getting ill pre game to injuries in the warm up, it really was a day from hell fro the Bombers as they were smashed by Fremantle to the extent of 53 points. Yes it was hot and things went wrong, but what happened the following week no one could have foreseen. Essendon came home to play St Kilda at Etihad Stadium on Saturday and despite a positive start once again the Bombers struggled to fight out a game when asked to do so. The Saints, massive underdogs for the game ran away with the game after quarter time and placed Essendon firmly in the middle of a mini crisis.
Collingwood’s form is almost the complete opposite, after a tough start to the season the Magpies have found form and have notched up three wins out of their last 4 games. The last two wins against Richmond and North Melbourne have been impressive in many ways, but it’s been the pressure that the Pies have been able to place on the competition that has been their main weapon. The return to form of Travis Cloke and Dane Swan has helped, and finally the injury list at Collingwood is decreasing also. All is looking up for the Magpies indeed.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
A few weeks back it seemed as if Collingwood’s season was on the edge of disaster after a second loss of the season in just three games. As it’s turned out though, that loss to Geelong was as honourable as losses get (11 points to the still undefeated Cats) and from there everything is looking up for the Pies. Wins against the Tigers and Kangaroos have seen an increase in confidence and intensity amongst the playing group. Now for the first time in a long time Collingwood has several players pushing for selection through the VFL, with the likes of Taylor Adams, Ben Kennedy, Ben Hudson, Patrick Karnezis, Sam Dwyer and Nathan Brown all playing well in the reserves last weekend. The club must now be a great place to be, jokes and laughs would be in the air, the Westpac Centre would now feel like a positive place and that can only lead to future good results.
Selection this week will be tough for the Collingwood coaches, with Brown, Dwyer and Adams all deserving of a game, but there’s very few in the selected 22 against North who played poorly enough to be dropped. Brown is the full back for the Pies, so you’d expect he’d come back in, but Adams and Dwyer may have to wait their turn. In that 22 that played against Richmond, several stood out and performed magnificently. Alex Fasolo’s move to half back seems to be working really well, with the ex forward massing 32 possessions at a disposal efficiency of over 84%. He’s the type of skilful player many sides seek coming out of the backline these days, and he really is showing a tonne of potential in this role. Some of the Pies stars returned to form too against the Kangaroos, with Swan, Cloke, Lumumba and Maxwell all dominating in their particular areas. New captain Scott Pendlebury continued his stellar form and it seems as if being made captain has actually improved his game, which is scary for future opposition.
Collingwood will see this game as an opportunity to really get their season back on track. If they can win it, they go to a 4-2 win loss record with a draw that seems easier than the one they’ve just endured. It really is a big game for the Pies and you’d expect the champion midfielders they have to stamp their authority on the game once again.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Essendon are in somewhat of a mini crisis, they are struggling to produce the type of football that only weeks ago had them being talked up as a top 4 contender. The trip to Perth and subsequent loss wasn’t seen as an absolute disastrous result, but the loss to St Kilda really has the club in turmoil, with several big name players on the edge of being dropped for poor performances. Why it’s turned around so quickly is anyone’s guess, it could be injuries, it could be a lack of defensive pressure or it could be the game plan fails under pressure. Whatever it is the Bombers have to get back on track this Friday, and they only have a few days to prepare to do so. The positive news for Essendon is the probable return of Goddard, Winderlich and Bellchambers, but to blame all the problems on personnel seems like a cop out. Essendon do have weaknesses, but they also have areas of strength that can exploit this Collingwood outfit.
If there’s an area that Essendon can attempt to gain an advantage over Collingwood it’s in the ruck, with Ryder and possibly Bellchambers forming a strong combination. If Bellchambers plays they will go head to head with two Collingwood youngsters, Witts and Grundy and the Bombers would expect to dominate in this area. The problem is that below those rucks is a midfield which is struggling, with Essendon ranked 14th for contested possessions. It’s a strange occurrence when the Bombers have players like Watson, Stanton, Heppell, Myers and Zaharakis in that midfield rotation. Of course this week they run into the powerful Collingwood midfield, and while the stats don’t back up just how strong the Pies central grouping is, when an opposition sees Pendlebury, Beams, Swan, Ball and Sidebottom on the team sheet, you know you are in for a tough day. It may not be where this game is won or lost though.
The Essendon backline has struggled over the past few weeks, but it hasn’t been entirely their fault with their midfield failing to put enough pressure on the opposition at times. The worry is that two of the league’s hardest working forwards, Pavlich and Riewoldt have worked the Dons over and this week they run into Travis Cloke, Jesse White and the in form Jamie Elliott. Essendon don’t really have the means to improve their backline too much either, with the possible ins being midfielders and forwards more than defenders. One of the biggest problems is what to do with Hurley and Carlisle, who are both struggling at the moment. Carlisle seems to be more effective in the backline, while Hurley seems better up forward, but in recent weeks those roles have been reversed with mixed results. Collingwood also relies on it’s midfield for scoring so Essendon’s defense will need help from it’s midfield in restricting the Magpies score.
Essendon’s forward line looks dangerous on paper, but last week it really struggled to put the score on the board, despite have almost as many inside 50's as the Saints. The Hurley/Carlisle debate will rage on, but Essendon will be hoping the probable return of Goddard and Bellchambers makes their attack far more dangerous. It’s an area they will look to exploit Collingwood in but youngsters Jack Frost and Lachlan Keeffe have made up for the absence of Brown and Reid in recent times, so even a weakened Pies defense isn’t easy to dominate. The inclusion of Paul Champan this year has helped though, with his 9 goals in 4 games (he missed the Fremantle game) helping cover up the other problems up forward. Hardingham (9 goals) and Stanton (8 goals) have also impacted the scoreboard so far in 2014, but to defeat a side like Collingwood they’ll need plenty of contributors to the score board.
Essendon need to rebound, and they need to do it quickly. A loss to the Pies would leave them at 2-4, and from there it’s a hard task just to make the finals, let alone be a contender for a top 4 spot. To win they’ll need to play as a team though, something that has been missing over the past two weeks. There’s also been questions about the players individual recovery, and yet another six day break will bring that into focus, and need, once again. These two teams match up pretty well though, so if Essendon can get themselves up for this game and work hard for four quarters they could cause an upset.
TIP
Collingwood go into this year’s ANZAC day clash as favourites, and rightfully so. They have the better form, they are working harder as a team and they seem to be all buying into the coaches plan. Essendon are almost the opposite, in poor form, their work rate has been down and there are rumblings about player divisions with the coaching staff. But playing in front of 90,000 people seems to change things some times, with form and previous problems being overcome quite easily in previous clashes on this day.
On form though, and on paper, you have to tip the Pies and I’m no different.
MAGPIES BY 18 POINTS.
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