Collingwood v North Melbourne
Saturday April 19, 1.40pmMCG Fox Footy 1.30pm Weather: Min 11 Max 17 Chance of rain 40%: 1-5mm Wind: W 21kph Betting: Collingwood 1.85 North Melbourne 1.95 |
A bit of pressure was relieved from the Magpies last round with a convincing victory over the Tigers. Nonetheless, the win will only be short-lived considering Collingwood has a very tricky fortnight ahead with Essendon to follow the Roos next round. Currently sitting in ninth on the ladder, the Pies know that wins now will significantly set up the season as opposed to having to play catch up.
North Melbourne on the other hand is the toast of the town with convincing wins over Port Adelaide and Sydney in consecutive weeks. Both these wins have come in the absence of Jack Ziebell and Andrew Swallow, which is huge credit to the young up and coming midfielders in the side. This could be the turning point for North Melbourne after a frustrating 2013 season. Top eight would now seem the bare minimum goal for the Kangaroos, with a top four finish not unforeseeable. A win against Collingwood would cap a great month for the Kangaroos and cement them in the upper echelon of the ladder.
Recent History
These two sides met in the first and last rounds of the 2013 season. North Melbourne won the last battle by 11 points. However, the win was very hard to assess considering the game was a dead rubber with both sides unable to move their position on the ladder. Therefore, it was an extremely free flowing and ‘bruise-free’ game.
Jack Ziebell was the star with 27 disposals and four goals, whilst Scott Pendlebury was the leading Magpie with 33 disposals and 2 goals which earned him the two votes. Ryan Bastinac was the leading disposal winner with 34 and polled one vote. Travis Cloke and Ben Reid also had big days out with five goals each.
In round one, it was the Magpies who prevailed by 16 points. Andrew Swallow was deemed best on ground with 34 disposals and nine tackles. Cloke was again very prominent with four goals and polled the two votes, whilst Steele Sidebottom polled the one vote with three goals and 21 disposals.
At the Selection Table
After good wins last weekend, both sides have some selection dilemmas with key players returning from injury or suspension.
Starting with the Magpies, Nathan Brown is pushing for selection following a dislocated shoulder. Should he return, the heat will be on Jack Frost and Lachlan Keeffe to retain their position. Both have performed admirably in the past fortnight and it seems unlikely to me that Nathan Buckley will want to play the three talls alongside in form defender Nick Maxwell.
Sam Dwyer is also pushing for selection after a knee injury in round three, while Taylor Adams has served his one week suspension and will also be pushing his claim for a senior recall. Given such a solid performance last week, it may be tough for Dwyer and Adams to force their way back in. The inclusion of Jarrod Witts last week to assist Brodie Grundy in the ruck paid dividends and seemed to have a positive impact on Jessie White who kicked three goals.
Turning the attention onto the Kangaroos, and Jack Ziebell will need to prove his fitness after a shoulder injury. It is reported he is yet to resume full contact work at training, so he would need to pass a fitness test before he earns a recall given this game should be quite a fierce one. He is rated a 50/50 chance at this stage.
Daniel Currie was a last replacement last week due to the wet conditions. He will be a chance to earn a recall to assist Todd Goldstein in the ruck. Skipper Andrew Swallow still remains sidelined with his Achilles injury, as does Robbie Tarrant.
Focus on Collingwood
The Magpies are beginning to work their way into the season beautifully. In the opening round, Collingwood were exposed defensively and offensively. In the next two rounds, the Pies sharpened up their defensive efforts, but lacked attacking flair. Last week, Collingwood finally found some mojo in the middle with its key midfielders kicking 10 goals between them. They also limited Richmond’s scoring. The Tigers only managed three goals to three quarter time.
It was interesting to see the make-up last round with Jarrod Witts in the side. Although Cloke remained quiet, it definitely allowed White more freedom and he looked very dangerous booting three goals. Nathan Buckley has said that he believes White is a better third tall option. Therefore, it seems that Buckley’s preferred model is to have the three tall forwards. With Ben Reid out, I believe that the Magpies will keep experimenting with the Witts/Grundy setup. Although it was not a game for talls, Witts was still prominent with 17 disposals and 10 hitouts. If he could start clunking a few contested marks, he could become a real weapon for the Magpies.
North Melbourne has a very tall forward line, so it will be a test for the young Collingwood defence to stand up. Nick Maxwell has played the loose man role well so far this year. The Kangaroos have the firepower up forward to keep Maxwell accountable, so it may be up to other players to help fill the void.
Brent Macaffer – Macaffer’s tag on Trent Cotchin last week has caused very heated debates amongst the AFL fraternity. His tactics have been questioned and he was penalised with three free kicks against throughout the night. But his job was relentless and he limited the Tiger skipper to only 13 disposals. Macaffer is extremely dedicated to his job and doesn’t give up. He is quickly becoming one of the best taggers in the competition. North Melbourne has numerous players that require tagging, so it will be a tough decision when the match committee choses who to send Macaffer to. He could go to Nick Dal Santo on whom he did a fabulous job tagging last year, or he may be asked to go to the in form Ben Cunnington or Daniel Wells. However, I think he will be given the job on Brent Harvey who is simply too damaging to be left alone.
Dane Swan – You know a guy is a champion when a 27 disposal and two goal game is just considered an average night out. Swan’s form has been questioned all season, but despite this he still is averaging 23 disposals and a goal a game. Not too bad for a guy out of nick. He has also been asked to spend a lot more time forward, which is having a dramatic impact on his ball-winning ability. Hopefully, last week’s game against Richmond is the turning point for him and he regains his confidence.
Clinton Young – Young is slowly starting to regain his best form. He was very good last week with 21 disposals and has been asked to play deep in defence or up on a wing. His raking left boot is proving a huge asset. As his confidence slowly returns, Young could well be the missing link for the Magpies.
Jessie White – One of the boom recruits in the 2013 off-season, White has put together two very solid weeks of football kicking five goals and playing his part in the ruck. With Cloke down on form, White has put his hand up to assist and taking some of the load. Importantly, White is extremely quick and equally as valuable at ground level as he is in the air. He also has a booming kick and is generally a pretty accurate shot on goal. I look forward to seeing White develop his partnership with Cloke. If Witts can also draw a good defender, White could prove too strong for any opponent sent his way. Ben Reid will also prove a valuable asset when he returns.
Focus on North Melbourne
It seems as if it is all finally starting to click for the Kangaroos in 2014. Two years ago, North Melbourne was considered a very attacking side but lacked defence. In 2013, the Kangaroos actually lost a lot of their run and carry and became a bit of a static team. They were also susceptible to last quarter fade outs which put to question the leadership of the players and also fitness. In the last fortnight, North Melbourne has run out games very strongly against highly fancied opposition and the leadership of the mid-tier players has been exemplary in the absence of Ziebell and Swallow.
Importantly, North Melbourne has seemingly found a nice balance between attack and defence. The game against Port Adelaide in particular was a fierce contest and perhaps a real turning point. The midfield has really stood up and now looks to have really good depth. Although the midfield may not possess as many household names as Collingwood, there is a real compliment of grunt and polish as well as youth and experience. It will be a tough decision for Buckley to make as to who he sends the tag to with Wells, Harvey, Cunnington and Dal Santo all in good form.
Another strength for North Melbourne is the strong key position players. The Kangaroos have been strong defensively in most games this year, yet still have some strong firepower up forward to worry the Magpies.
Ben Cunnington – A lot of expectation was put on Cunnington when he first entered the game, and it has perhaps taken him a bit longer than first expected to really establish himself. But that said, he is still only 22 and not even at his peak yet. This year has so far proven to be his breakout year after a strong pre-season. He would have polled six votes in the last two games against strong opposition. Cunnington is a real bull at the contest, but also has genuine evasiveness. He also averages seven tackles a match. The spotlight was put on the younger North Melbourne midfielders after Swallow and Ziebell were injured, and Cunnington has led the way along with the likes of Bastinac, Atley and Gibson. The next step for Cunnington will be to start kicking some goals as he is yet to kick one so far this year.
Scott Thompson - Thompson is the sort of full back that does whatever it takes to stop his opponent. He is coming off a terrific match where he totally stopped Lance Franklin and also picked up 24 disposals of his own. He will take the match up on Travis Cloke this week who last year kicked nine goals against North Melbourne. Cloke is out of form, but typically plays good against the Kangaroos, so this match-up will be decisive. Last week, Sydney allowed North Melbourne loose men behind the ball, and Franklin also pushed high up the field to get into the game. Thompson and his defenders simply held their structure down back and proved impenetrable. Therefore, it is important for Collingwood this week to ensure all North Melbourne defenders are held accountable.
Luke McDonald – North Melbourne was forced to use a first round pick in the National Draft last season (pick eight) on this father son prospect due to competing interest from other clubs. Nonetheless, the Kangaroos were still considered to have scored a bargain at pick eight due to the fact that McDonald was a ready-made AFL prospect with a raking left boot. At 190cm, he is the perfect height for a modern day footballer as well. It is a credit to him to have established himself in the North Melbourne side despite the impressive depth and it is clear that the club is keen to get games into him quickly. He hasn’t disappointed either averaging 19 disposals across half back in his debut season.
Aaron Black – Black started the season slowly and was perhaps struggling with the extra attention in the absence of Robbie Tarrant. He had only kicked three goals in the opening three games and was barely getting near the ball. Last week may have been a turning point, kicking three crucial goals in the wet. He still only found the football on 12 occasions, but at least he had an impact on the scoreboard. He will be looking to carry that form into this round.
The Wrap Up
It’s hard to pick a winner in this one. North Melbourne have the more consistent form, but Collingwood still possesses the bigger names on paper and is also in pretty good nick after a month of competing against top sides. The Magpies enter the game as favourites, but it is a real toss of the coin.
The midfield battle will be crucial as the Magpie midfield has been inconsistent at times this year, but when it clicks can be devastating. Todd Goldstein is one of the better tap ruckmen in the competition and will look to give his midfielders first use, so it will be another test for the young Magpies ruck stocks to quell his influence.
Both sides also possess the firepower up forward to kick a winning score and the defensive structures to lock a game down.
Therefore, I’ll tip with my heart and say Collingwood in a close one.
Magpies by 7 points.
No comments :
Post a Comment