Collingwood v St Kilda
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 18 Chance of rain 70%: 5-10mm Wind: E 12kph Betting: Collingwood $1.37 St Kilda $3.10 |
Of course these two clubs have some rather important recent history, playing off in two grand finals in one season. The drawn decider of 2010 will go down as one of the greatest AFL Grand Finals of all time, and while the replay the week after was one sided, the two will forever be linked due to the 3 Grand Finals they have played in against each other (1966 being the first). Since then however Collingwood and St Kilda have taken a gradual decline down the ladder, with the Saints bottoming out last season just 4 years removed from that epic 2010 final series. There are good signs though with plenty of youngsters and potential stars on the lists of the respective sides.
PREVIOUS FORM
Collingwood started the season really well with a 12 point win over Brisbane at the Gabba, but last weekend at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne they came crashing down to earth with a 27 point loss to the Adelaide Crows. The Pies were never really in the contest and despite the efforts of captain Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams and Dane Swan in the midfield, Collingwood were smashed in the clearances when it counted. The final margin flattered the Magpies too, as they trailed by 56 points at three quarter time before the Crows tired noticeably. It was a wake up call for the Pies after a good first up win, and they’ll have to improve their midfield depth at selection this week.
The Saints headed up to the Gold Coast to play the Suns and started the game as massive under dogs. The second quarter was stunning from the visiting team though as St Kilda stacked on eight goals to the Suns one to all but seal a morale lifting win for the club. The 28 point win came after a competitive loss to the Giants in round one and shows that this Saints team isn’t as bad as most thought it would be. The star from the win over the Suns was Josh Bruce, an ex Giants player who was recruited as a defender but is definitely a forward now. Bruce kicked 6 goals and took plenty of strong marks and with youngster Patrick McCartin soon to debut the St Kilda forward line will be dangerous even when Nick Riewoldt inevitably retires.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
After two rounds of the season once again injuries are cruelling the Magpies chances of showing just how good they can be. For three quarters up in Brisbane they looked like a top 8 side, only to lose Steele Sidebottom to a broken thumb and fade poorly. Last weekend against the Crows the absence of Sidebottom and Levi Greenwood (as well as the suspended Josh Thomas) meant that Adelaide just ran rampant through the middle of the ground. There aren’t too many short term fixes either, with Sam Dwyer the only experienced midfield player available for selection from the VFL. The rest are kids, with De Goey, Freeman, Goodyear and Maynard all chances to come in this weekend. Then there’s the injuries that the Pies suffered in the loss to the Crows. Ben Sinclair’s hamstring injury is quite severe, and he’ll be out for at least 4 weeks, while captain Scott Pendlebury, tough midfielder Taylor Adams and new recruit Travis Varcoe all suffered leg injuries on the night. It’s unlikely that all 3 of those players will miss, but with obvious injury concerns it’s likely that at least one will miss, weakening the Pies even more.
There are positives for Magpies fans though, the performances of Tim Broomhead, Adam Oxley and Tom Langdon stood out on a bad night for the club. The 22 year old Oxley, in only his 4th senior game, was one of the best for the Magpies with 33 disposals and 12 rebounds out of defensive 50. In partnership with Langdon and the experienced Alan Toovey they provided Collingwood with some drive off half back at least, although the number of forward 50 entries was overwhelming at times. That’s where Collingwood is at too, they have to rely on their youngsters now to improve, and while many are still running around in the VFL, it’s a good bet that by the latter part of season 2015 the Magpies line-up will look different to what it does now.
At selection Jarrod Witts, Sam Dwyer, Nathan Freeman, Patrick Karnezis and Corey Gault will come into contention with the injury concerns ultimately deciding how many changes need to be made. Witts will be a welcome addition with Brodie Grundy having to ruck almost solo over the first two weeks. The Pies should still be able to win this game, but the Saints won’t be an easy opponent to over come.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
St Kilda came into season 2015 not expected to do anything at all really. It was seen as a season where they’d play the plethora of young talent they had on the list, have their good moments but ultimately end up right near, or on, the bottom of the ladder. The win over the Suns on Saturday has changed all that, the Saints now must be looking at that as their standard of performance, something they will seek to recreate in each game from now on. The best players versus the Suns show why St Kilda won, with the only experienced player in the list being Sam Fisher. The Saints, not unlike the Magpies know that overall improvement will come mainly from the first to fourth year players if they are to out perform most expectations of them.
St Kilda’s midfield really struggled last season, in fact it was ranked close to the bottom of the league for contested possessions and clearances among the 18 clubs. Already in 2015 there’s been signs of improvement though, even if they lost in those two categories to the Suns and Giants. Most wouldn’t recognise the Saints midfield now, with names like Newnes, Steven, Armitage, Geary and Shenton, Savage and Sinclair rotating through the middle. The absence of Leigh Montagna last week didn’t even hurt too much although he is expected to miss again this week against the Pies. The Saints ruckman Billy Longer has been a nice recruit too, a high draft pick by the Lions he was a steal for the Saints and is just starting to perform at a top level. They come up against a mightily weakened Magpies central grouping and this is an area the Saints have to break even in to have any chance of winning.
On face value the Saints forward line had a poor season in 2014 with only Melbourne scoring less total points then St Kilda. Their midfield was as much to blame as the forward line though, and with the addition of Josh Bruce and Nick Riewoldt still trying his heart out, the Saints attack looks better already. Ahmed Saad and Tim Membrey also add options up forward although the Magpies defense is their strength area at the moment. St Kilda will rely on Riewoldt and Bruce a lot against the Pies but will also need assistance from the midfield or face wasting a probable advantage in inside forward 50’s.
In season 2014 St Kilda had the most total points scored against them in the entire AFL, showing that their defense was in a transition period much like the rest of their team. The Saints still rely on Sam Fisher as their stalwart down back and Luke Delaney offers able support to top off the key position stocks. They do possess decent run and attack out of defense with Roberton, Savage, Geary and Dempster all providing some drive. Whether or not Collingwood decides to add a third tall to the mix to stretch St Kilda’s defense this is the area of the ground that will be of most concern for the Saints going into this game.
St Kilda came into this season with no external expectations and have played a brand of football that is both exciting and without the burden of pressure. The Saints are definitely headed in the right direction with their youngsters ready to take over from the experienced players at the club and move them forward. This Friday night is a great opportunity for them to really capitalise on a weakened Magpies outfit. The Saints will go into the game with a far healthier list and although they are playing the Pies on their home ground you would expect them to push Collingwood to the limit.
TIP
Collingwood will start short favourites for this game with the bookies yet it’s difficult to see why. The Saints are coming off a morale boosting win while the Pies have been decimated by injuries yet again. If the Magpies had their full list to choose from those odds would make perfect sense but under the circumstances it’s hard to see anything other then a competitive game here.
Collingwood’s chances may well come down to final selection. If Pendlebury, Adams and Varcoe take their place in the side that would make them very hard to beat, but if 2 or even all 3 of don’t pass fitness tests the Saints can win this game. I’m going on faith that at least two of those players take their place in the side and the return of number 1 ruckman Jarrod Witts just getting the Pies over the line.
MAGPIES BY 14 POINTS.
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