Collingwood v Carlton
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 21 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: E 18kph Betting: Collingwood $1.50 Carlton $2.60 |
Whilst this rivalry has never needed any extra spice to attract interest, there is no doubt that in recent years there has been an extra element of tension amongst fans given the defection of Mick Malthouse and Dale Thomas to Carlton.
Though the fans have all finally moved on, this year’s clash will again bring with it an extra layer of interest considering Malthouse will break Jock McHale’s record of coaching the most games in league history. It is a remarkable achievement and one I sincerely congratulate him on.
While the build-up will focus a lot on Malthouse’s record-breaking night, once the ball is bounced all the attention will go back onto the four points which are on offer. Both sides desperately need the win.
For the Magpies, a 3-1 start to the year has the side in third spot on the ladder. The wins are yet to come against the real powerhouses of the competition, but it has still been an impressive start to the year and many footy experts are beginning to take notice of this new look Magpie side.
The experienced players such as Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Alan Toovey have all been terrific, but it has been the youthful mix in the side which would be the most pleasing element of Collingwood’s early season form.
Not many tipped the Magpies to win on ANZAC Day last weekend, but the win will count for little if the team is to lose against the lower ranked Carlton this weekend. Collingwood has the opportunity to move to four wins and one loss and really set the season up nicely.
On the other hand, Carlton’s season has reached a really defining point. After losing the opening three games, the Blues were able to notch up their first win last weekend against St Kilda in New Zealand.
The Saints remain favourites for the wooden spoon, but the win was vital nonetheless. Carlton will now be full of confidence ahead of this week’s match against its bitter rival and will sense an opportunity to pinch a second win. A win will get the season back on track and silence a lot of doubters. A loss, however, will firmly entrench the Blues in the bottom four and will leave the season hanging by a thread.
It’s a crucial match for both teams and the intensity will be high from the opening bounce. Both sides have excelled in the early parts of this year in contested footy. The Magpies are ranked first in the competition in this area, and the Blues are also ranked highly in sixth and should welcome back Chris Judd to strengthen this area further. This will undoubtedly be a key statistic again on Friday night.
In regards to weather, the forecast is looking very positive at the moment so we should see great conditions for football. The Magpies will need to adjust from the wet weather they played in last week.
Recent History
Collingwood has won the past four encounters against Carlton, and Malthouse is yet to chalk up a victory against his former protégé.
These sides last met in a scrappy affair in round 15 last season when Collingwood was victorious by 15 points. Steele Sidebottom was the standout with 33 disposals and two goals, polling the three Brownlow votes. Pendlebury continued his good form against Carlton, with 24 disposals, two goals and 11 tackles, earning him the two votes. Chris Yarran was Carlton’s standout with 23 disposals and running rampant off the half back line.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood should enjoy a relatively stable week at selection with no major injuries to the senior side from the weekend. Dane Swan has been spotted in a moonboot at training and it has since been revealed that he suffered a minor ankle injury. A final call will be made on him following Thursday training.
While the VFL side lost on the weekend, the form of Jordan De Goey, Clinton Young, Patrick Karnezis and Jarrod Witts would have impressed coach Nathan Buckley. Witts in particular may be a chance to come into the side as an extra tall option.
De Goey and Karnezis are right on the cusp of selection and will be available if Swan is left out, whilst Young will need a few more weeks at VFL level to build his fitness.
In disappointing news, Darcy Moore and Tony Armstrong sustained injuries. Moore has been the emergency for the AFL side in the last two weeks, meaning his hamstring injury is a blow. In more positive news, Matt Scharenberg looks set to return to the VFL team this week as he continues his recovery from an ACL injury. Ben Kennedy should also return from a virus.
Carlton will welcome back Chris Judd after he was rested from the St Kilda game with a minor calf complaint. Troy Menzel also should pass a fitness test and be available for selection. They are two vital selections for the Blues as they adds real x-factor to the side. Judd may give a real edge in the contested football battle as well.
Matthew Kreuzer also looks set to return to VFL level, which will give the side a boost, while Dale Thomas continues his recovery from a shoulder injury. Chris Yarran is the other who will miss this week’s game as he serves his three week suspension. His absence is a blow considering he has been Carlton’s best player against Collingwood in recent history.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood was extremely impressive against Essendon last week. It again won the contested footy count, and the tackling was really impressive. There are so many areas the Magpies have improved in during 2015, but I thought the biggest factor in last week’s win was their defensive structures. Over the opening four rounds, Collingwood has been a very hard team to score against. This was again the case last week with the Bombers only managing six goals.
The defensive pressure has been a real team focus. It is starting from the forwards who are making it very hard to clear the ball from Collingwood’s attacking 50. The midfield is winning contested footy which means that the backline has less inside 50s to counter.
But this is not to take anything away from Collingwood’s back six, which has been so solid. Experienced heads like Toovey, Nathan Brown and Tyson Goldsack have been influential, but youngsters like Marley Williams, Jack Frost, Jackson Ramsay, Adam Oxley and Tom Langdon are simply not losing one-on-one battles with their opponents.
I thought the key stage of last week’s game was the second quarter where Essendon really piled on the pressure. Last season, the Magpies probably would’ve fallen away and let the Bombers run over the top of them.
On this occasion, however, the young Collingwood defence weathered the storm and took the best the Bombers had to offer.
This is going to be very important against Carlton as there is no doubt that the Blues will be very emotionally driven to win for their coach and will start the game pumped up. Therefore, if the Magpies can hold this early charge, then they should be able to eventually run over the top of the Blues.
Player Focus - Collingwood
Paul Seedsman – Seedsman has constantly battled injuries and form throughout the early stages of his career, but we are all aware of the talent he has. Buckley has a lot of faith in him because also seems to slot him into the AFL side when fit. This faith was rewarded last weekend by Seedsman who had a career defining game. He had 33 disposals and kicked a crucial goal, which earned him the ANZAC Day Medal. Seedsman has played good games before, but his issue has always been consistency. He needs to back up this good game with another blinder against Carlton. His pace will play a role, so he looms as a really important player on Friday night.
Jackson Ramsay – Ramsay is forging a nice little spot for himself in Collingwood’s defence so far this year. He isn’t a huge accumulator, only averaging 15 disposals a game, but he does his job, and when he is needed he is able to take the game on. He has a big task keeping his spot given the star quality still to return to the side, along with the quality youth who are all vying for a position in the back half. But he has done more than enough to tell his coach that he can be relied upon to do a job when called upon. The next step for Ramsey is to get more involved offensively, which he is slowly starting to do the more he settles into the AFL environment.
Jamie Elliott – Some may say he has had a good run with the umpires over the past two weeks when it comes to freakish marks and goals, but to me, Elliott looks on the verge of really tearing a game apart. He has been steady in the opening month of football and has contributed a lot to the scoreboard. He has a terrific record against Carlton in particular and may be due for a really big game. The Blues have historically struggled to find the right match-up for Elliott, so it will be interesting to see how they counter him on Friday night. Elliott has been the match-winner before when these sides have met, and my money is on him to play a blinder yet again.
Focus on Carlton
The Blues obviously have a lot to play for. There is no doubt a strong desire to win for their coach on in his milestone game. There is also the incentive to win to keep the season on track. I have no doubt that a fired up Carlton is what we are going to see on Friday night.
However, the Blues can’t expect to win on passion alone. They need to take the game on and give the tall forwards plenty of one-out opportunities. With Liam Jones, Levi Casboult and Lachie Henderson up forward, there is marking power. The issue has been conversion and finding other contributors.
With the departure of players like Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett in recent years, the Blues have at times looked slow up forward. The absence of Yarran and Thomas further adds to this problem. Carlton has been typically good from contested situations this year, but has just lacked firepower.
To beat the Magpies’ tight defence, the Blues are going to need multiple contributors outside of the usual suspects in Marc Murphy, Chris Judd and Bryce Gibbs.
Last week, it was players like Tom Bell, Andrejs Everitt and Gibbs, who were able to kick multiple goals in support of Lachie Henderson who booted five. The spread of goal kickers proved too much for the Saints and the Blues ran away convincing winners. The Blues will need this even performance from their second tier players.
The other consideration is the fact that Carlton had to travel to New Zealand last week and only had a six-day break to recover. In conjunction with the added hype of Malthouse’s coaching achievements, it will be interesting to see how the Blues recover from this big trip.
Player Focus - Carlton
Patrick Cripps – Cripps earned himself a Rising Star nomination for his terrific game against St.Kilda last week. He picked up 33 disposals, the majority of which were contested. He also led his side for tackling. Cripps is a giant for a midfielder, standing at 193cm tall. While he doesn’t possess electric speed, there is no doubt he has worked on his running ability. He is an inside midfielder who has a very bright future. It was his breakout game last week, and he’ll be looking to back that up.
Blaine Boekhorst – Boekhorst really adds something to the Carlton side in pace and x-factor. He picked up 13 disposals on debut, but showed glimpses of that breakneck speed which the Carlton fans have been screaming out for. He’ll take the game on and is a pretty good user of the football as well. He’s one to keep an eye on because he has the potential to turn games with individual pieces of brilliance. He is also a slightly older recruit so should be able to slot straight into the team quickly.
Lachie Henderson – The Blues desperately needed a big man to fire, and Henderson stepped up last week with five goals. He had an injury interrupted season in 2014, so will be looking to take the next step this year and really establish himself as a power forward of the competition. He will likely get the in form Jack Frost as an opponent this weekend, so he knows he is not going to get an easy run at it. A big game from Henderson will be vital if the Blues want to upset the Pies this weekend.
The Wrap Up
As I’ve mentioned, I’m expecting a fiery start. Carlton should come out full of vigour and really take it up to Collingwood. The Blues were able to come back from a four-goal deficit last weekend, but I don’t think they can rely on that this week considering Collingwood has been a very strong second half side this year. Carlton will need to turn the early intensity into scoreboard pressure and test this young Magpie outfit’s resolve.
On the other hand, the Magpies need to weather this early storm and wear the Blues down. The area Carlton has shown most promise this year has been contested football, so if the Magpies continue to win the contests (as they have done all season) then it is hard to see the Blues winning.
Carlton has a good list on paper and it has experience to call upon. Collingwood, though, has a bit more run off half back and on the wing. I think this will eventually win out as the game wears on.
I think it will be a close game though. Carlton has looked a much better side in the past fortnight and has a lot riding on this result.
Magpies by 15 points
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