Collingwood v Essendon
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 2.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 16 Chance of rain 90%: 5-10mm Wind: WSW 24kph Betting: Collingwood $2.90 Essendon $1.42 |
As important as the day is, there is a game to be played too, and it’s a vital game for both clubs seasons. Essendon, free of the ASADA saga that has weighed them down for almost three seasons, have made a remarkable start to season 2015 with two wins and a narrow loss to the Sydney Swans. Collingwood, a side many didn’t expect to even play finals this year, also sit on 2 wins and 1 loss after success against the Lions and Saints. This game therefore gives one of these clubs an opportunity to get a head start on many in the competition, and really put them on their way to playing finals in season 2015. Usually these ANZAC day clashes are close and hard fought regardless of ladder position, with some epic upsets having occurred, such as 2002 when the Pies shocked a Bombers side coming off a Grand Final defeat, and 2009 when a struggling Essendon side defeated one of the premiership favourites with almost the last kick of the game. It’s a great occasion, and honour for both clubs and the game itself usually stands up well on it’s own.
PREVIOUS FORM
Collingwood as expected have been inconsistent so far this season, even with only three rounds completed. The Pies started the season in style, holding off a fast finishing Brisbane Lions at the GABBA. The Magpies then ventured to Etihad in round 2 against one of the in form teams of the competition, the Adelaide Crows, and were never in the game losing by 27 points. Last Friday night Collingwood lined up against St Kilda in their first home game of the season at the mighty MCG. Some had picked the Saints to upset the Pies and when St Kilda kicked the first three goals those selections didn’t look so silly. The Saints took a 1 point lead into the first break but from then on the Magpies really did dominate. Led by Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Brodie Grundy and Tim Broomhead the Pies ripped the Saints apart and by three quarter time held a 52 point lead. The Collingwood forward line clicked for the first time this season also with Travis Cloke kicking 5 goals from 11 shots and Jamie Elliott taking a mark of the year contender as well as booting 4 majors on his own. It was an impressive performance from the Magpies indeed.
Essendon started the season up in Sydney and at three quarter time of that game looked like coming away with an improbable win. The Bombers led by 34 points at that final change but didn’t score in the final quarter as the Swans came over the top of them to win by 12 points. The following week there was enough grand finalist facing up against them, the Hawks. This time they didn’t fade late though as they recorded one of the clubs best wins in recent history. Last Saturday the Bombers had a relatively easy win over Carlton at the M.C.G. Despite the Blues attempting a late comeback and getting within 14 points Essendon looked like winning the whole day as they improved to a 2-1 win/loss record. Captain Jobe Watson led from the front once again and had able support in the form of Heppell, Goddard, Hooker and Zaharakis. Those 2 wins have made for a good start to the season for Essendon, especially considering the difficulty of their draw so far.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood have started the season well for a team that many tipped to miss the final eight quite easily. The two wins have been dominant at times while the loss to Adelaide showed the inconsistency that both youth and inexperience brings. The Pies midfield has been badly effected by injuries so far in 2015 with the loss of Levi Greenwood and Steele Sidebottom to long term injuries. Taylor Adams missed last week’s win over the Saints but he is almost certain to return and provide plenty of assistance to Swan, Pendlebury, Crisp, Dwyer and Broomhead. That’s one area that Collingwood will look to exploit Essendon in, the midfield, especially with Adam Cooney certain to be missing and David Zaharakis likely to be out injured also. Third year ruckman Brodie Grundy is also starting to enforce himself onto games and should be an adequate match up for Tom Bellchambers.
Collingwood will have to be efficient when they go inside forward 50 though if they are to win this game and the new look three pronged tall forward line should do just that. Whether Corey Gault or Jarrod Witts are selected as ruck relief for Grundy, their mere presence up forward takes pressure of Cloke, White and Elliott. Essendon’s backline has improved in recent seasons but this new look Magpies forward structure may stretch it to it’s limits. Collingwood’s backline has held up fairly well in the first few games of the season, even under intense pressure against Adelaide they didn’t concede 100 points. Nathan Brown and Jack Frost have held down the key positions in defense quite well so far but it’s been the youngsters that have improved this area for the Pies. Jackson Ramsay, Adam Oxley and Tom Langdon have all been impressive with Langdon already drawing comparisons to Nick Maxwell and James Clement, an honour indeed.
The Magpies VFL side had a season opening loss up at North Ballarat on Sunday but there were some players who staked claims for promotion. Alex Fasolo was the Pies best forward while Jarrod Witts was the dominant ruckman on the ground. Youngsters Darcy Moore, Jonathan Marsh, Jordan De Goey and Nathan Freeman also pushed their cases for senior selection.
The Pies can win this game, the recent injuries that have weakened Essendon’s midfield really gives them a chance of starting the season with a 3 win and 1 loss record, something very few so called experts gave them a chance of achieving.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Essendon came into season 2015 hoping that for once their football would be talked about and not the long running drugs controversy. Their first 3 performances have started to tip the scale that way indeed, especially the win over the Hawks in round 2. They kept the Hawks total to 76 points, that’s almost certainly going to be a season low for the reigning premiers, and was the most impressive aspect of a great win for the Bombers. Last week’s game win over the lowly Blues wasn’t as impressive but it was still a win. It did come at a cost though with Adam Cooney certain to miss with a hamstring injury and David Zaharakis likely to miss with a slight knee injury. Essendon at their best could contend for a top 4 spot, but it will be interesting to see how they cope now their midfield has been weakened.
With the absence of Cooney, Winderlich, Hocking, Myers and probably Zaharakis the Essendon midfield has been weakened severely. So has Collingwood’s though, with no Sidebottom or Greenwood to call upon on ANZAC day. Essendon still has some elite talent in the middle though with Watson Heppell and Goddard set to lead the way against the Pies. To even match the Magpies midfield though some of the Bombers lesser lights will have to greatly assist their stars, and that’s where Stanton, Merrett and Melksham come in. Stanton has a great recent record against the Pies and if he steps up the missing players won’t be missed as much. Tom Bellchambers is a capable ruckman who does his best work around the ground, and this week he comes up against the best young ruckman in the AFL, Brodie Grundy, who was close to best on ground last week. Games can be won or lost in the midfield if one team can get a dominance, but it seems as if this game will be fairly even in the middle.
Essendon’s defense has grown in strength and effectiveness over the past few seasons. The versatility of Carlisle and Hurley has allowed the Bombers to pick their best matchups down back each week, something that is so important in today’s football. Cale Hooker is the main stay in defense and is a reliable full back for Essendon. Against a Magpies offence that is still finding it’s form Mark Baguley may be a crucial player, as he is almost certain to take the close to elite small forward Jamie Elliott, who burst back into form last week with 4 goals and a mark of the year contender. The Bombers will have to be an effective defensive unit against a Pies forward line that does seem to be improving week by week.
The Essendon forward line at first glance seems to be a work in progress. Led by third year father/son recruit Joe Daniher, a player of great potential, the Bombers attack has shown that it can be dangerous if everything clicks. Of course having Paul Chapman down their helps too, and he’s another who has a good record against Collingwood, all be it as a Cat more then a Bomber. The Magpies backline is solid without being spectacular and as Adelaide showed if you can get the ball in their quickly it can be exposed for a lack of pace on transition. This might be the one area of the ground that Essendon will look to dominate, although the probable absence of Zaharakis, their best goal kicking midfielder, does hurt the attack a fair bit.
If you played this game 10 times the Bombers best 22 would win 7-8 of those contests, but with injuries to both teams Essendon will have to rely on depth, and it’s yet to be determined how strong their depth is. ANZAC day games are always hard fought, and usually come down to the last quarter with very little between the two sides. There in lies a problem for the Bombers, they haven’t run games out well so far this season, so for their sake hopefully three full games under their belts means they are ready for a four quarter effort.
TIP
After round two very few would have given the Magpies a chance in this game, especially given what had just happened. Essendon had just defeated the reigning premiers in a classic while the Pies looked limp and lifeless versus an improving Adelaide outfit. Fast forward one week though and things have changed, Collingwood absolutely dominated a weak St Kilda team while Essendon themselves struggled to overcome their own bottom four opponent, Carlton.
On form Essendon still hold the advantage but the injuries to Cooney and Zaharakis do bring them back to the back, that’s for sure. Add the absence of Myers, Winderlich and Hocking and Collingwood for once may have an advantage on the injury front. I can see the Bombers starting this game very quickly, in an aim to pressure the younger Pies into mistakes and build a match winning lead. If however Collingwood can stay in the game early, I can see them over running an Essendon team that is as depleted as it has been at any point in this short season. Collingwood to win in another classic ANZAC day clash is my tip.
MAGPIES BY 7 POINTS.
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