Preview Round 3: Collingwood v St Kilda

SPORTAL Many were predicting a pressure cooker year for Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley. There are certain unavoidable realities, the structural reform needed for the playing list and the downfall after taking over a side after a Grand Final appearance. With all that said, 2015 is shaping up to being a critical year for the Collingwood coach. The first two rounds exemplified just where they are at as a group, capable of putting away mediocre opposition, but classier and inform teams can put them to the sword. The Pies remained competitive all over the ground at stoppages and in close last week, but were just blown away when attempting to defend overlapping wingers and half-forwards kicking the ball into Adelaide’s forward line. Perhaps that outside class might not be the same for their opposition this week, but Buckley must drill his team to remain organised in defence or risk a highly embarrassing result. St. Kilda look to be playing a little better than what their list suggests they should be. There are still large holes in playing positions all over the ground and will be on the end of some painful results against better sides, but there is a lot to like about the first two weeks. They’ve defended the field quite well, worked hard and sought to cover space when they don’t have the ball. However, it’s still obvious how their midfield lacks diversity in the short term, with hardened types like Armitage, Steven, Dunstan and Weller having to do perhaps too much of the ball carrying work. Josh Bruce’s stints up forward will be moderately successful if his team mates make space for him near goal, although it can’t become predictable or opposition coaches will find a way to shut it down. Collingwood are very gettable, and it’s down to types like Roberton and Lonie being effective ball users when switching and in wide areas of the ground. Key match ups: Josh Bruce vs Tyson Goldsack With Nathan Brown likely to take Riewoldt and be run up and down the ground ragged, Bruce will be likely faced with a game on Tyson Goldsack. Saints fans should be aware not to expect 6 goal feats every week, but an important cameo role beckons if his fellow forwards can isolate him on the undersized Goldsack one on one. Dane Swan v Mav Weller A match up that won’t necessarily be head to head as Swan essentially has the freedom to roam from contest to contest. One of the Saints more hardened bodies’ needs to impose themselves physically on Swan to prevent him finding room to get the ball out to teammates. Result: It could be a relatively close contest, although there are no surprises if the Pies keep the Saints at arm’s length for most of the night. Cloke, Swan, Pendles (if fit), White and the rest of the more senior players need to stamp their mark on this contest or it could be a long week for club and the increasingly embattled coach. Pies by 18.

ROAR Are Collingwood setting in for the long haul, playing kids, and pitching for a bottom-of-the-ladder finish in 2015? Before the season that’s what I thought they’d be doing. The ‘Pies have been rebuilding underneath the radar over the past couple of years, moving a number of veterans and stalwarts along and acquiring draft picks on the way. They have the sixth-youngest and fifth least experienced list in the competition, according to Champion Data, just three years after losing to Geelong in the 2011 grand final. St Kilda, on the other hand, are in the midst of a much more public rebuild following their grand final run and dramatic fall from grace in 2013. Their young-to-middle-age charges have started the year well, led by David Armitage and Shane Savage. Their form line is hard to read, following a home loss to GWS and an away win against the Gold Coast Suns in the first two weeks of the year. The Pies may be down in their midfield come game time, with injury clouds hanging over Cadillac Scott Pendlebury and Mustang Taylor Adams. Like last week, neither side exactly screams “I got this”. You could make a compelling case for St Kilda’s improving youth; you could make a compelling case for Collingwood’s top end talent. Although one bloke you’d put into that category is probably facing more scrutiny than the others: Travis Cloke. Cloke is yet to fully repay the faith shown in him by the ‘Pies when he signed a key forward contract (they’re different to the rest: work out value and multiply by two, three or four depending on age) after the 2012 season. Cloke has averaged 2.5 goals per game since 2010 (when he signed his third Pies contract), but hasn’t lifted his rate under his new deal and kicked a meagre 39.30 in 2014. Most significantly, his contested marks per game have dropped from 3.8 in 2011 to just 1.6 in 2014. It’s cliché, but Friday night is the biggest stage, and against an inexperienced and undersized defensive unit that conceded the most marks inside 50 per game last season, Cloke could have a big one. It may not be pretty, but Collingwood should get the job done by 24 points. Bonus Prediction! Travis Cloke to take five marks inside 50, and kick five goals or more. Collingwood v St Kilda Friday April 17, 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather Min 10 Max 18 Chance of rain 70%: 5-10mm Wind: E 12kph Betting Collingwood $1.37 St Kilda $3.10