Preview Round 5: Collingwood v Carlton

AFL

SUMMARY

Collingwood v Carlton Friday May 1, 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 21 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: NNE 19kph Betting: Collingwood $1.48 Carlton $2.65

The hype around Friday night's contest will be about Mick Malthouse's remarkable longevity in the game and the Blues would love to upset their fierce rival to mark his milestone. But the odds are against Malthouse scoring his first victory over the Magpies as Carlton coach. Collingwood was superb in the wet on Anzac Day, upsetting the Bombers with relentless pressure and tackling. The Magpies' defence led by Paul Seedsman, Nathan Brown and Jack Frost stood firm and restricted the dangerous Essendon forwards. The Blues opened their account in 2015 with a 40-point victory over the Saints in New Zealand and should be boosted by the return of champion midfielder Chris Judd and promising forward Troy Menzel.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R15, 2014, Collingwood 13.13 (91) d Carlton 11.10 (76) at the MCG
2. R7, 2014, Collingwood 14.20 (104) d Carlton 10.10 (70) at the MCG
3. R15, 2013, Collingwood 17.16 (118) d Carlton 12.5 (77) at the MCG
4. R2, 2013, Collingwood 17.15 (117) d Carlton 15.10 (100) at the MCG
5. R15, 2012, Carlton 12.13 (85) d Collingwood 8.14 (62) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. In the Magpies' win over Carlton in round seven last year their small forwards did the damage, with Dayne Beams kicking four goals and Jamie Elliott three. In round 15 Steele Sidebottom starred with 33 disposals and two goals.
2. Collingwood has won the most contested possessions of any team this season, averaging 164.5 a game. Carlton is ranked sixth with 143.2.
3. Collingwood has dominated Carlton recently, winning the past four contests and nine of 11 since late in 2009.
4. The Magpies are second this season for taking the ball inside 50, with 242 at 60.5 a game. The Blues have struggled with 199 at 49.7.
5. Carlton's final score against St Kilda last Saturday was the first time the Blues had kicked triple figures this season. Their average score is 86 a game while Collingwood averages 89.
6. After kicking four second-half goals to help turn the match in Carlton's favour against the Saints, Tom Bell rose 30 places in the Official AFL Player Ratings, from No. 311 overall to 281.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Mick Malthouse. He becomes the AFL/VFL record-holder when he coaches his 715th game to surpass legendary Collingwood coach Jock McHale and would like nothing better than to record a win over his former club.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by five points.