Collingwood v Carlton
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 21 Chance of rain 30%: < 1mm Wind: E 18kph Betting: Collingwood $1.50 Carlton $2.60 |
Straight away he lifted the dysfunctional Eagles into relevance, and eventually guided them to becoming the first interstate team to win a VFL/AFL premiership. Mick’s greatest achievement though may well have been his last premiership, the 2010 triumph with the club he faces this Friday night, the Collingwood Magpies. Malthouse spent 12 years at Collingwood, yet deep into that reign it looked as if he would go without delivering that elusive flag to the biggest club in the land. 2010 and 2011 were great years for the Pies though, as Mick guided them to back to back grand finals, with the raising of the cup in 2010 being one of the greatest moment’s in Malthouses’ long career.
Malthouse came out of semi retirement to coach Carlton at the start of 2013 and in his third year with the Blues will surpass McHales’ total games record this week. It is of course scripted to the second by the AFL that he faces Collingwood of all teams. The Carlton and Collingwood’s rivalry is already big enough yet when you add in Malthouse’s milestone this game becomes massive. Collingwood have started the season well, sitting with a 3 win and 1 loss record after 4 games. Carlton on the other hand have started it poorly, with their first win coming only last week after 3 consecutive losses to start the season. The Pies seem to have found a consistency of effort that was lacking last year while the Blues are about where everyone expected them to be, closer to the bottom of the ladder then the top.
PREVIOUS FORM
Collingwood’s form leading into their annual ANZAC day clash with Essendon was nothing spectacular, with two wins over lowly opponents St Kilda and Brisbane, and a heavy defeat against Adelaide. What was spectacular though was the way the Magpies performed on Saturday at the MCG. The Pies revelled in the wet conditions playing a tough, contested brand of footy that really suited the weather. The Magpies dominated Essendon for large periods of the game, and after half time ran away with a confidence boosting 20 point win. What was really impressive was the performance of the Pies lesser lights though, with Jack Frost, Paul Seedsman, Jack Crisp and Marley Williams all having excellent games. Seedsman walked away with the ANZAC medal which would have been a dream long held by the life long Collingwood fan.
Carlton travelled to New Zealand last Saturday on the back of three consecutive losses to start the season. Defeats to Richmond, West Coast and Essendon made the trip to Wellington against St Kilda a must win game but it didn’t start well for the Blues. They found themselves trailing the lowly Saints by 26 points in the second quarter and it looked like a disaster was about to occur for Carlton. From there though the Blues took control of the match, mainly due to captain Marc Murphy and youngster Patrick Cripps. The output from second year Cripps would have been a sight to warm all Blues fans hearts as he racked up 33 possessions and showed he has a massive future in the game. It was a much needed win for Carlton and gives them a much needed confidence boost leading into a clash with the old enemy.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
For Collingwood, season 2015 was supposed to be a struggle, it was supposed to be a season here head coach Nathan Buckley would come under pressure and the Pies would fail to play finals once again. Four rounds in and many are changing their tune now, yes Collingwood aren’t a top 4 side, despite sitting there now, but they have shown that they can more then cope with many other sides in the competition. The draw has helped, getting to play St Kilda and Brisbane but the win over Essendon was nothing short of impressive. Collingwood played a brand of football against Essendon that reminded many of their manic pressure and attack on the ball carrier that made them so dangerous back in 2010 and 2011. But this side is different, it’s a side that Buckley has built on defense, and a young defense at that. The likes of Langdon, Williams, Ramsay, Oxley and Frost have improved the Magpies dramatically down back and made them a tough team to defeat. This is a Collingwood side that is showing signs of improving for the first time in several seasons.
This Friday night Collingwood will have a selection problem on their hands, but of the positive variety. Nearly all of the 22 that played in the win over Essendon can state a case for being retained, with only positional changes based on the opposition maybe forcing a change. The two who may come under the most pressure are Adam Oxley and Corey Gault, who both failed to have a large impact in the win, but in their own way are crucial to the teams current game plan. If Collingwood are to replace either they would have to replace them with a similar player, in Gault’s case that would be either Jarrod Witts or Patrick Karnezis, and in Oxley’s case Jonathan Marsh. Witts is an interesting one, he’s now played several weeks in the VFL at a consistent level and would be keen to start a long term ruck partnership with the potential star that is Brodie Grundy. Whether the Pies think this is the right time to play two genuine rucks is the question though.
No matter what the final selection is, the Pies have depth now, which for a lot of last season wasn’t readily available to them. This Collingwood team will believe it should defeat Carlton, and it really should.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Carlton came into season 2015 with high internal expectations even if most outside the club thought they wouldn’t achieve too much at all. After four rounds, the internal expectations have changed, terms like “rebuild” and “long term approach” are now being thrown around and that isn’t something that fans of a club that finished 13th want to hear. Last week’s comeback against St Kilda was the first good sign for the Blues in 2015 though, and the performance of Patrick Cripps would give their fans some hope going forward. It’s going to be a long year for the Blues though, and it doesn’t get any easier up against the old enemy.
The Carlton forward line has taken a severe hit in recent seasons with just about all of their leading goal kickers leaving the club. The loss of Betts, Garlett, Waite and Fevola has left them with a skeleton forward structure made up of players who excel more in the VFL then they do at AFL level. Lachie Henderson is the obvious exception here though, he seems to have improved yet again and was very impressive last week in that win over the Saints. The Blues rely heavily on goals from their strong midfield brigade and this week come up against a Pies defense that hasn’t conceded 100 points in a game yet this season. Carlton will have to get more insider 50’s then the Pies to put the score on the board, that’s clear to see really.
The Blues have one area of strength and that is the midfield. After 4 rounds the Blues lead the league for centre clearances and are fourth overall for total clearances from stoppages. It’s no shock that they rank so high in those categories, with names like Judd, Simpson, Murphy, Gibbs, Armfield and Carrazzo in their midfield grouping. Against Essendon two weeks ago the Blues won the clearance count by 23, a staggering amount, yet accuracy at goal cost them any chance of winning. Carlton’s ruck stocks aren’t strong due to the absence of number one choice Matthew Kreuzer. Cameron Wood has filled in manfully but will face a test against the best young ruckman in the AFL, Brodie Grundy, this week. On Friday Carlton’s midfield runs into a Pies central core missing two crucial components, Steele Sidebottom and Levi Greenwood. In their place though others have stepped up, although you would assume Carlton will win the midfield battle which should give them some chance in this game.
Carlton’s defense has been a problem for the Blues for a while now. Last season it ranked 14th for total points conceded and at the moment it’s not fairing much better in 2015. They only have the one class key position defender and he is Michael Jamison, who you’d think would get first crack at Travis Cloke. Carlton rely on Sam Rowe and their medium defenders to assist Jamison and most weeks it simply doesn’t work. They do have decent enough rebound out of defense with Zach Tuohy, one of the best Irishmen to play the game, improving every season and leading the way. Carlton also have to worry about the Pies ace in the pack, Jamie Elliott, who is fast becoming one of the best small forwards in the league. Who matches up on him, and their effectiveness in doing so, may well determine if Carlton have any chance of winning this game at all.
The Blues have looked capable in patches so far this season but haven’t been able to put it together for a full game yet. If they let their guard down for even a small period this Friday night they will be punished by an in form Magpies line up. The return of Chris Judd and probable return of Troy Menzel will help their cause a fair bit but Judd isn’t the player he once was so reliance on him isn’t prudent any more. Carlton will have to dominate the midfield battle to win this game, and the problem that exists there is two fold, Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan. If they can restrict those two then the Blues may push the Magpies to the limit indeed.
TIP
Carlton and Collingwood may sit far apart on the ladder after four rounds, and the expectations of both teams may be a lot different now, but I can still see Carlton being competitive in this game. Their last trip to the MCG resulted in their best performance of the season, as they closed late to just miss out on an upset win over Essendon. Carlton will prefer the forecast dry conditions on Friday night and the extra motivation of Mick Malthouse’s record breaking game will see them up and about. Collingwood have to be careful not to let their guard down after such an impressive win over the Bombers last Saturday. That performance was as good as anything this Magpies outfit has put out in 12 months so they will be hoping to repeat it, if not improve.
Ultimately I think it comes down to personnel and talent as to who wins this game and Collingwood come out on top in just about every area. Even in Carlton’s strength area, the midfield, the Pies have been performing at a top level in recent weeks. The difference in this game will be defense though, and that’s where Collingwood will have a large advantage and prove too good for a Blues outfit in transition.
MAGPIES BY 19 POINTS.
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