Collingwood v Essendon
MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 2.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 16 Chance of rain 90%: 5-10mm Wind: WSW 24kph Betting: Collingwood $2.90 Essendon $1.42 |
Both Collingwood and Essendon enter round four in good form, each sitting on two wins and one loss. With such an even competition, the winner will establish itself in the topper echelon of the ladder, while the loser remains right in the middle of the pack.
Starting with Collingwood, and I have been very impressed with the early season form despite the injury list remaining very high. Although the Magpies have very good depth, the majority of the injuries have struck in the midfield, meaning coach Nathan Buckley has had to find four to five new players to fill holes.
It can be said that Collingwood has not beaten a top eight team of last year as yet, but its wins have been convincing and have been important considering the lack of senior midfielders available for selection. More than half of the 22 last week had played under 50 games of footy, highlighting the real youthful mix in the Collingwood line-up at the moment.
Turning the focus onto Essendon, and I have been equally impressed with its start to the year.
Whilst the ASADA dramas appear to be behind the Bombers, it was always going to be interesting to see how they would start the year considering the majority of the senior players had no match practice in the pre-season due to interim suspensions.
The early fixture was not kind, either, with Sydney and Hawthorn as their opponents in the opening two rounds. Amazingly, the Bombers gave the Swans a real scare in round one, while they were able to cause a massive upset in round two against the Hawks. This form carried through last week with a comfortable victory over Carlton.
The only concern for Essendon so far this season has been the drastic fadeouts in last quarters. In each match this season, the Bombers have squandered big leads. At this stage, these fadeouts are likely due to the lack of match practice over the pre-season and the fact that far too many players may have entered the year without the requisite match fitness. With three rounds behind us, these players should now be fully match fit and the fadeouts should stop.
On the other hand, Collingwood has been impressive in last quarters over the past fortnight. I was particularly impressed by the fact that the Magpies really punished St Kilda last week and had a massive victory.
Putting sides away has been a real weakness for Collingwood for the past year, and the round three victory was the first time since round eleven last year that the Magpies scored over 100 points. Considering the youth in the side, it is good to see the Magpies are running out games strongly.
While Collingwood has finished strongly in the past fortnight, the same can’t be said about its starts. In round two, Adelaide was able to put the game away early before the Pies could get into the game. It also took the Magpies the majority of the first quarter to settle against St Kilda, and they risked getting blown away early. In contrast, Essendon has being starting games really strongly.
Essendon is a very strong outfit, and therefore Collingwood does not want to start slowly this round and rely on a comeback, despite the last quarter fadeouts discussed above. Buckley will be putting a lot of emphasis on getting the structures right from the outset this week.
At this stage, a chilly and wet day is forecast for Saturday. I don’t think the wet weather really benefits either side considering both sides enjoy contested footy. It might slightly favour Collingwood considering it leads the competition for contested disposals so far in 2015.
Recent History
A few months can be an enormously long time in football. In last year’s ANZAC Day match, the Magpies overcame a terribly slow start to pile on nine unanswered goals and run away with the match. But in round seventeen when these sides last met, the Bombers absolutely smashed the Magpies by 64 points. The Pies were only able to register five goals for the whole match.
In this match, Jake Carlisle polled the three Brownlow votes by booting four goals. Cale Hooker polled two votes with 23 disposals and nine marks and Brent Stanton was the leading disposal winner on the ground with 32 which earned him the one vote.
In last year’s ANZAC Day game, Dane Swan stole the show with four goals from 26 disposals. It was enough to earn him the ANZAC Day Medal and the three Brownlow votes. Steele Sidebottom was equally as influential, kicking three goals in the second quarter to turn the game. This earned him the two votes. Dyson Heppell was Essendon’s best with 33 disposals which earned him one vote. Scott Pendlebury was also prolific with 30 disposals.
At the Selection Table
It will be an interesting week for both coaches at selection. Everyone wants to be selected for the big ANZAC Day game and a number of players have performed strongly at VFL level.
Nathan Buckley will be hesitant to make too many changes to the side that beat St Kilda last week, as it was such an even team performance across the board.
He may have considered Ben Reid after two solid VFL hitouts, but it has since been revealed he received a knock to his quad. During his press conference, Buckley admitted Reid might need more time in the VFL before he really presses for senior selection.
Taylor Adams was a late withdrawal from last week’s game but has trained strongly so far this week. He will be keen to play his first ANZAC Day game for the club, but needs to prove his fitness during training on Thursday. Even if he does, it will be tough to break back into the side, but there is no doubt the midfield would be bolstered by his presence.
Other players pushing for selection include Collingwood’s two top 10 picks from last season in Jordan De Goey and Darcy Moore. Both have been fantastic at VFL level. Collingwood has a history of debuting promising players on ANZAC Day and I would not be surprised to see one of these guys get a chance this week. Moore, in particular, could be a smokey to debut considering Reid will be unavailable.
Jarrod Witts has also been in good form, but may struggle to earn a spot with Brodie Grundy dominating in the ruck playing a lone hand. Alex Fasolo responded well to his omission, kicking two goals last week at VFL level.
It’s exciting to hear that injured pair Clinton Young and Matthew Scharenberg will return the VFL over the next fortnight.
Essendon, on the other hand, will have to make at least one forced change this week with Adam Cooney ruled out for a month with a hamstring injury. It is a blow for the former Bulldog as he was starting to hit some good form for his new club. David Zaharakis is also under an injury cloud after he received a knee injury against Carlton last round. There is also some doubt over Carlisle but he is likely to play.
In their place, Jackson Merrett and Courtenay Dempsey have been solid at VFL level and look like obvious replacements at this stage. Kyle Langford is also pressing for selection, as is Will Hams. Jonathan Giles could also be an option if the Bombers want extra height or two ruckmen.
Focus on Collingwood
Despite injury, Collingwood has been able to unearth new faces to fill a few holes. It has also been impressive to see a number of players assist through the middle to help cover the void left by Sidebottom, Levi Greenwood and Brent Macaffer.
But the area of focus for me in this preview relates to the forward line.
In the opening two rounds, Buckley opted to play two tall forwards, and use Tyson Goldsack as the third tall in a defensive role. For mine, it didn’t necessarily work, with Travis Cloke and Jesse White struggling to hit the scoreboard.
Last round, Buckley played rookie Corey Gault as the third tall. Whilst Gault and White were relatively quiet, their presence drew defenders away from Cloke which meant Cloke had a number of one out opportunities.
As a result, he kicked five goals and probably could have kicked eight if he had his kicking boots on. Jamie Elliott also found space and booted four goals. Goldsack was thrown into defence where he also looked quite comfortable.
While Buckley will be looking for more from White and Gault, there is no doubt that the taller forward line worked in round three. It is just about finding the right personnel to support Cloke. It may be Jarrod Witts who comes in to support Grundy in the ruck, or youngster Darcy Moore may get his chance as he can play either end of the ground.
From my point of view, I think playing three tall forwards will be the strategy Buckley uses against Essendon as they have a terrific defence that likes to peel off and take intercept marks. Dustin Fletcher and Hooker, in particular, are the masters at this. By playing three talls, it should help keep the defenders accountable and draw attention away from Cloke. Weather may alter this strategy.
Player focus – Collingwood
Dane Swan – The Brownlow Medallist was written off at the end of 2014 as injuries began taking their toll. But Swanny has bounced back in 2015 and played a terrific game against the Saints. It was enough to earn him the perfect 10 votes from the coaches following his dominant performance. Swan is an ANZAC Day specialist and always performs well against the Bombers. The veteran continues to build as the year goes on. Importantly, he has really stepped up and lifted his game to help cover the absence of a number of key midfielders.
Adam Oxley – With the injury to Ben Reid, Oxley has been given a chance in defence and has taken it with both hands. He has had a wretched run with injuries in his first few years at the club, but finally has his body right. He was a forgotten man in many regards, and not many would have had him in their calculations for a senior position. But he has now cemented his spot with 33 disposals against the Crows and 22 against the Saints. He is a great user of the footy and has a good set of hands. At 193cm, he can play through the middle or at half back in a floating role, making him an ideal modern day footballer. The signs are very promising.
Travis Cloke – A lot of focus has been placed on Cloke’s goal kicking following a wayward display last round. While we all want to see Cloke hitting the scoreboard, I was very impressed by his game. Five goals was good reward, but it was his work rate which was most promising. On a number of occasions he led up hard at the ball to make a contest, which left crumbing opportunities for the likes of Sam Dwyer and Travis Varcoe who each kicked goals as a result. Cloke won’t get a stat for this, but his contribution is highly valuable. He is also roaming higher up the field with White and Gault able to stay closer to goal. His work rate has been the most impressive part of his game so far this season.
Brodie Grundy – In only his third year, Grundy is one of the in form ruckmen of the competition right now. He lost the mantle of number one ruck last year to Jarrod Witts but has quickly regained it after three very solid performances. He recorded career high statistics last week against St Kilda, highlighting his improved aerobic capacity to move around the ground and win the ball. His ruck work is also improving and he is having real influence in this department, giving the Magpies first use of the football. All he needs to do now is start clunking a few marks to really complete his game. It will be a terrific battle with Tom Bellchambers this weekend.
Jack Crisp – Crisp was considered merely the steak knives in the Dayne Beams deal last year and few Collingwood supporters would have had much of an idea what sort of player he was. However, he trained incredibly hard over the pre-season and was rewarded with a round one spot. His height, coupled with his terrific running ability and also his all-round game has made him a valuable asset to the side. He can play a run-with role, or also play inside if need be. Importantly, he is quick and breaks lines, and his kicking is improving as well. I look forward to seeing him on the big stage this week to see how he responds. He may get a run with role with a player such as Heppell, Stanton or even Brendon Goddard.
The Wrap Up
This should be an absolute classic ANZAC Day game. On paper, the Bombers are definitely more experienced and have the bigger names. But if the young players can all perform their roles in the same manner they did last week, and the senior players continue to lead from the front, then the Magpies have a lot of fire power and will take this game right up to Essendon. If Zaharakis and Cooney both miss, it really evens up the midfield battle as well.
Weather may have an impact. While I think both sides will deal with poor weather well, I think it ultimately benefits Collingwood as it might prefer a scrappy game.
I expect big numbers from Pendlebury and Swan, and equally high numbers from Watson and Heppell. I’m not expecting a lot of accountability through the middle and therefore centre clearances and contested footy will be crucial. Efficiency going forward will also be the key as I think both sides will give their forwards enough opportunities.
It may come down to which side converts these opportunities the best.
Collingwood by 10 points
No comments :
Post a Comment