Preview Round 8: Collingwood v Brisbane

AFL

SUMMARY

Round 8 COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE Time, Place, TV: Saturday May 14, 7:25pm Gabba Fox Sports 7:00pm Weather: Min 14 Max 27 Chance of rain 5%: <1mm Wind: ENE 10kph Betting: Collingwood $1.95 Brisbane $1.85

Collingwood heads to the Gabba on Saturday night with the weight of the AFL world on its shoulders, sporting a 2-5 record and desperate to win. Much more was expected of the Magpies pre-season, and fresh from a loss to arch-rivals Carlton, another defeat at the hands of the lowly Lions would put coach Nathan Buckley under all sorts of pressure. Despite winning just once this season, the Lions are a tricky proposition and are a significantly better team at home. They challenged unbeaten North Melbourne, defeated then-unbeaten Gold Coast and came within a kick of the high-flying Sydney Swans in their three matches at the Gabba. It's a tough one to call, but if the Lions' midfield gets back to winning the contested ball, they might just have enough outside speed to add to the Magpies' woes.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R1, 2015, Collingwood 12.14 (86) d Brisbane Lions 11.8 (74) at the Gabba
2. R21, 2014, Brisbane Lions 18.15 (123) d Collingwood 8.8 (56) at the MCG
3. R10, 2013, Collingwood 14.16 (100) d Brisbane Lions 7.9 (51) at the Gabba
4. R7, 2012, Collingwood 17.14 (116) d Brisbane Lions 8.10 (58) at the Gabba
5. R22, 2011, Collingwood 14.18 (102) d Brisbane Lions 13.6 (84) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Despite losing their last encounter, the Lions had more disposals, marks and hit-outs, but the Magpies won the categories that mattered: 26-19 scoring shots and 60-49 inside 50s. Taylor Adams and Dane Swan each had 31 disposals.
2. The Lions have lost four games this season by more than 50 points, and by conceding 122 points a game, their defence is the worst in the competition.
3. The teams meet for the 43rd time and the Magpies hold a 23-19 advantage, including six of the past eight. The Lions have an 11-7 edge in matches at the Gabba.
4. No team averages fewer disposals than the Lions' 328.3 a game. They're also ranked last for uncontested possessions. Collingwood is ninth for disposals and uncontested possessions.
5. The Magpies' prolonged struggles have continued this season. Since the middle of 2015 they have won only four of 18 games. The Lions have fared worse though, winning just three of 18 in the same period.
6. He's been hovering for 12 months, but Adam Treloar finally cracked the top 25 in the Schick AFL Player Ratings with his 27 disposals and eight tackles against Carlton. He is now ranked 25th overall.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Dayne Beams.

It's not the first time the ex-Magpie has played his former club – that happened in round one last year – but a win here would mean plenty to Beams. His first game of 2016 against Port last week was a ripper, and sometimes the second game back after a long break is the toughest. He'll be desperate to do well in his first game at the Gabba since last July.

PREDICTION: Brisbane Lions by 12 points