Preview Round 7: Collingwood v Carlton

AFL

SUMMARY

Round 7 COLLINGWOOD v CARLTON Saturday May 7, 1:45pm  MCG Fox Footy 1:30pm Weather: Min 12 Max 23 Chance of rain 90%: 1-5mm Wind: NNE 27kph Betting: Collingwood $1.32 Carlton $3.40

It's a big occasion whenever these two once-mighty clubs meet, and this clash between 13th (Collingwood) and 14th (Carlton) has taken on new significance with the winner to go a game clear of the loser. Not long ago, Pies fans would have pencilled this in as a percentage-boosting victory, but the Blues have belied their rebuilding status to win their past two games, and they appear more than just a sneaky chance to break their six-game hoodoo against an out-of-sorts Collingwood. With the Pies boasting a high-flying attack, the Blues will miss injured prodigy Jacob Weitering. Collingwood was blown away early and late by the Eagles last week, but if the Pies can replicate the footy they played in the second and third terms, they will win comfortably.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R19, 2015, Collingwood 16.9 (105) d Carlton 13.9 (87) at the MCG
2. R5, 2015, Collingwood 18.12 (120) d Carlton 6.9 (45) at the MCG
3. R15, 2014, Collingwood 13.13 (91) d Carlton 11.10 (76) at the MCG
4. R7, 2014, Collingwood 14.20 (104) d Carlton 10.10 (70) at the MCG
5. R15, 2013, Collingwood 17.16 (118) d Carlton 12.5 (77) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Carlton is aiming for a third successive win for the first time since late 2013, while another Collingwood loss would consign the Pies to their worst opening seven weeks of a season since they were 1-6 in 2005.
2. Collingwood has dominated Carlton in recent times, winning their past six encounters by an average of 33 points. The Blues haven't beaten the Pies since round 15, 2012.
3. Dane Swan, the sidelined Pies champion, was the star when these teams last met, amassing 41 possessions, 10 marks and three goals to earn three Brownlow votes. Alex Fasolo and Ben Reid kicked four goals each. 
4. Both sides are struggling to get the ball forward, with Carlton 13th in the AFL for inside 50s (averaging 50.7) while the Magpies are 14th (48.3). 
5. No two teams have played each other as much as Collingwood and Carlton. Their 251 contests have resulted in 125 wins to the Blues, 122 to the Magpies and four draws. 
6. Ex Lion Jack Crisp has made a steady rise in the Schick AFL Player Ratings since joining Collingwood for the 2015 season. Since then he has shot up from No.530 overall to a career-high No.114. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Dale Thomas.

Yet to produce a strong performance against his former club but appears primed to finally do just that after his best effort in a Carlton guernsey – a near best-afield display against Essendon last week. It's unlikely dancing 'Daisy' will ever recapture his breathtaking best of 2010-11, but Blues fans will be rapt if he can reproduce last week's form with some regularity.

PREDICTION: Collingwood by 25 points