2013 AFL Pre-season Preview: Collingwood

SUPERFOOTY - PAUL ROOS

THE most frequently asked question in the off-season is ''who do you think will win the premiership?''
This is closely followed by ''how do you think my team will go?''
The only guide is what happened last year and for that reason I believe the premiers will come from one of Sydney, Hawthorn, Collingwood or West Coast.

SYDNEY
THE reigning premiers face some challenges in going back to back.
The Swans don't look to have had a great pre-season and are going into season 2013 a little underdone.
That is not unusual for a premiership team as they start pre-season a month later than most sides. This factor has been helped by a soft start to the season with the Giants and the Suns.
They must not fall into the trap of taking either side lightly and pick the fittest team that they can.
Age may be a factor for the Swans, but there were no signs last year that players such as Adam Goodes, Jude Bolton and Ryan O'Keefe were slowing down.
The reason I believe the the Swans can go back-to-back is there is significant improvement left in players such as Hannebury, Reid, Jetta, Parker and new skipper Kieren Jack.

HAWTHORN
THE Hawks seem to be most people's premiership favourites and deservedly so.
I thought the Hawks were exposed in last year's Grand Final when the Swans players 15-22 were far better than those of the Hawks.
We know of the Hawks star power, but they must unearth more consistent role players to hold the cup aloft.
Brian Lake is an excellent good addition if he can get on the field regularly and, at his best, he is the key position defender the Hawks have been crying out for.

COLLINGWOOD
I BELIEVE the Pies are as well placed as any of these four teams to win a premiership.
On pure talent they can assemble the best 22 players.
They have the star power, depth, and great role players to fill their fans with confidence.
There is possibly two concerns for the Magpie army.
First, they must find a better balance between attack and defence. In their quest last year to become a more aggressive ball using team they certainly became much more exposed defensively.
I'm sure coach Nathan Buckley would have been stressing this during the pre-season. They must get back to becoming one of the most difficult teams to score against in the competition.
Second, sometimes their players can be their own worst enemies.
I applaud Nathan for his team first approach and trying to set high on-field and off-field standards. It is time for all Collingwood players to understand football is a team game and requires you to put the team first.

WEST COAST
THE Eagles have built nicely over the last couple of seasons. With a very talented list and 11 home games it is hard to see them not figuring in the premiership hunt.
Their ground is so big it's the most difficult for rival teams to play. Whilst this is a huge positive in order to reach the finals we know that premierships are won at the MCG.
Like the Swans, they do have some aging veterans who appear to be playing great football.
There is also tremendous upside in the young array of talent that they have assembled over the past six or seven years.
If the veterans continue to hold up and the youngsters improve as Woosha would hope a repeat of 2006 is very much on the cards.

WHO WILL JUMP?
THERE always appears to be a team that jumps up out of nowhere and last year it was the Adelaide Crows. I don't have them in my top four and think they may drop down the ladder.
The loss of Tippet is a big one, and time will tell as to whether they played at their absolutely optimum last season.
That brings us to the next debate as to who may jump up in 2013.
I believe the two most likely teams, despite the Brisbane Lions' outstanding pre-season, are Richmond and Essendon.
The only reason I don't have them in the eight is because I can't make a case for other teams to drop out.
Richmond's biggest problem last season was losing close games and there is no doubt that would have been a huge focus in their off-season.
Role-playing at training and placing players in game like situations would have happened on a regular basis. If they can arrest that worrying trend and win the close games, finals are a genuine consideration.
The Bombers' best 22 looks competitive. Last year they were cruelled by injury and also struggled to match the top teams run.
They looked to have had a much harder pre-season and will start 2013 a lot more confident with their running capacity.
Zaharakis is extremely important to them as he will give them another hard-running midfielder, something they lacked last year.
If they can put the turmoil of the off-season out of their minds, they like Richmond, will genuinely challenge for a spot in the eight.