The problem with Collingwood

REAL FOOTY (Jake Niall)

Besides the standard threat of injury, the greatest impediment to Collingwood winning the premiership this year remains largely undiagnosed. The relevant illness has been overshadowed and concealed by issues that are more dramatic and attention-grabbing.
Remove injuries, which can stop any horse in the field, and what is Collingwood's most pressing obstacle?
It's not depth of AFL-standard players, a problem last year that has been redressed via recruiting. It's not the delayed return of the hamstrung Luke Ball. It's not the unsettling change of coach, a possible issue last year. It's not Darren Jolly's creaking body, a vulnerability that should be covered better by a bearded insurance policy called Ben Hudson.
It's not Harry O'Brien's tendency to stick closer to the Dalai Lama than to Eddie Betts, nor a freewheeling midfield that doesn't defend. It's not even Dane Swan's social life.
These might be chinks, but the major weakness lies in the front half of this Collingwood side. The Pies haven't been scoring heavily enough. They don't have a potent or settled attack.
Collingwood doesn't have the same forward set-up that won the 2010 premiership and which terrorised the competition for much of 2011. Alan Didak was the club's leading goalkicker in 2010 and an All-Australian.
He's not been a factor since, is 30 and frequently hurt. He must be treated as a bonus, not part of the budget.
Chris Dawes, the principal foil to Travis Cloke in 2010-11, has been offloaded to Melbourne, where Leigh Brown, who played an important role as forward and second ruck in 2010-11, is coaching the forwards.
Jarryd Blair played mainly forward in 2010-11. Last year, the absence of Ball saw him pushed mainly into the midfield. Steele Sidebottom and Dayne Beams have been - and will remain - midfielders who have short stints up forward rather than the reverse. Dale Thomas has been afflicted with ankle problems and isn't playing today. ''Daisy'', who can play forward, is better suited to the midfield in any case.
Collingwood's recruitment of Quinten Lynch to replace Dawes as the forward/ruck was an acknowledgment that the attack wasn't cutting it. Lynch was not certain of a game at West Coast. He is essential at Collingwood.
The Pies have at their disposal a major forward talent in Alex Fasolo, who has the showman's hunger and natural flair for kicking goals. He's a brilliant finisher from short and long distance.
In effect, flashy ''Fas'' is the long-term replacement for Didak. But Fasolo too has barely played in pre-season and won't be menacing North Melbourne on Sunday.
Neither will Andy Krakouer, who can create space in a phone box and produce improbable goals.
Check out the nominated Collingwood forwards today. Cloke is the only A-grader. Indeed, none of the others, besides Lynch, are automatic selections. Tyson Goldsack, Brent Macaffer, Lynch and Ben Sinclair represent a pretty blue collar bunch; they might do the chasin' and tacklin', as Tommy Hafey puts it, but they won't do much finessin' with ball in hand. Jamie Elliott, promising in pre-season, is an unproven kid.
Krakouer and a fit Didak would add creativity, flair and goal-sense, but they lack leg speed and won't lock the ball inside the scoring territory as effectively as Sinclair, Goldsack, Macaffer and Elliott.
Therein lies coach Nathan Buckley's dilemma - the quicker players can apply defensive pressure but don't kick enough goals (Sinclair managed just 14 in 20 games), while those creative types who can score don't apply sufficient pressure. Finding that sustainable balance between defensive and creative forwards will be tricky.
Last year, Collingwood's ''frontal pressure'' disappeared, as footy's fashionable statistic - time spent in front half - demonstrated.
The Pies weren't applying an effective forward press and weren't scoring at anywhere near 2010-11 rates. They averaged only 94 points a game, compared with the 2011 figures of 117.8 (home and away season) and 112.9 (all games, including finals), a gap of three or four goals.
Collingwood conceded an average of 84 points a game last year. If this wasn't as stingy as 2011's average of 71.7, or 2010's 73.8 (all games), it's clear that Collingwood's defence held up better than its attack.
The Magpie defenders weren't protected by a forward line that locked the ball in, either.
A scoring problem first surfaced, in fact, during the 2011 finals series, when it was evident from the first qualifying final against West Coast that the goals were drying up.
Collingwood did not score more than 12 goals in any of its three finals. In its grand final loss, the Cats were far more efficient - they scored 18 goals from 57 forward (inside 50-metre) entries compared with 12 from 51. Didak's decline deprived the Pies of their Stevie J.
In the absence of Fasolo, Collingwood could sorely use a Betts-type, or even a third marking forward of Jack Darling's ilk. Without the forward riches of Hawthorn or West Coast, the Magpies are heavily reliant on their mids - especially Beams and Swan - to hit the scoreboard.
While it's preferable in this interchange-obsessed era to have midfielders who can play forward and vice versa, the downside of playing musical chairs between the bench, the midfield and the forward line is that the forwards, collectively, aren't settled and mightn't be as cohesive.
The forward line that Collingwood is fielding on Sunday has a portable appearance. Add Fasolo, push Blair down there when Ball and Thomas return and it looks far more capable.
It will need to be.