Preview Round 21: Collingwood v Brisbane

AFL

Collingwood v Brisbane Saturday August 16, 7.40pm MCG Fox Sports 7.30pm Weather: Min 5 Max 16 Chance of rain 50%: < 1mm Wind: S 18kph Betting: Collingwood $1.14 Brisbane $5.75

BOTH sides are coming off big losses last Sunday. The Magpies suffered a 10-goal defeat at the hands of West Coast at Patersons Stadium, while the Lions were embarrassed by Adelaide to the tune of 105 points. For Collingwood, which remains in finals contention, this is a very important match. Nathan Buckley's men simply have to win to keep their noses in front of the Eagles and Richmond, who are mounting late charges towards the top eight. For the Lions the game is all about pride. Justin Leppitsch's youthful side had shown some great improvement before it hit the wall against the Crows, so it needs to climb off the canvas and finish the season strongly.

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R10, 2013, Collingwood 14.16 (100) d Brisbane Lions 7.9 (51) at Gabba
2. R7, 2012, Collingwood 17.14 (116) d Brisbane Lions 8.10 (58) at the Gabba
3. R22, 2011, Collingwood 14.18 (102) d Brisbane Lions 13.6 (84) at MCG
4. R10, 2010, Brisbane Lions 13.10 (88) d Collingwood 11.14 (80) at Gabba
5. R18, 2009, Collingwood 12.23 (95) d Brisbane Lions 8.7 (55) at MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Neither team has been able to score heavily in recent weeks. Since round 13, Collingwood’s average points per game is just 76, while the Lions' average is only 67.
2. The Lions are the worst contested ball side in 2014, averaging 126.2 contested possessions per game. Collingwood is ranked 10th with an average of 136.6.
3. The Lions have a poor recent record at the MCG. They have lost their last three games at the home of footy and seven of their last eight. Their only win since 2010 at the MCG was in the opening round of the 2012 season when they beat Melbourne.
4. No team has kicked the ball less in 2014 than the Lions, who are ranked 18th at an average of 190.3 kicks per game. Collingwood is ranked 12th with an average of 205.2 kicks per game.
5. High-leaping Magpies forward Jamie Elliott has kicked three goals in his past three games. In his first 14 games this season he kicked 30.
6. Youngster Jack Crisp kicked three of the Lions' nine goals against the Crows last weekend. The performance equated to a career-high score of 21.8 in the Official AFL Player Ratings.

Prediction: Collingwood by 28 points