Collingwood v Brisbane
Saturday August 16, 7.40pm MCG Fox Sports 7.30pm Weather: Min 5 Max 16 Chance of rain 50%: < 1mm Wind: S 18kph Betting: Collingwood $1.14 Brisbane $5.75 |
With only three rounds to go in the home and away season, the top eight is still wide open, with as many as five teams vying for the final two positions.
Collingwood is one of those teams, currently sitting in ninth position, but only percentage away from a finals spot. The Magpies will be reliant on other sides to drop games, but with three matches still to play, they are still right in the hunt to make finals.
Brisbane, on the other hand is out of contention, currently sitting in 15th position, but has been a dangerous side to face in the second half of the year.
It is an important final month for the Lions considering they have shown promising signs and will be looking to finish the season on a positive note.
Both of these sides endured terrible losses last week and will be looking to make amends. Collingwood blew its top eight position with a 60-point loss to the West Coast Eagles.
It was a terrible performance, with coach Nathan Buckley telling journalists post-match not one player was willing to put his hand up and say he did his role for the team.
Brisbane, meanwhile, was smashed by Adelaide to the tune of 105 points. It was a disappointing result for the Lions considering they had been building some real momentum with a string of positive results until the belting last round.
Despite their ladder position, the Lions have managed to win two of their last five games, while the Magpies have only managed one win in this time. On paper, you would think that Collingwood should win this game comfortably, however it must be cautious as the Lions have nothing to lose and will be keen to bounce back from last weekend’s result.
In positive news for the Magpies, Brisbane has lost seven of its past eight games at the MCG, with its only win in this time to the lowly ranked Melbourne. With so many rookies in the side, it is a big ask for the Lions to come to the MCG against the Magpies, but the beauty of youth is that it holds no fears.
Recent History
Collingwood has won the previous three encounters between these two sides. Surprisingly, Brisbane’s last win against the Pies was in Collingwood’s premiership year of 2010, but historically, these two sides have always matched up well against each other.
Their last encounter was in round ten last season, when the Magpies were very comfortable 49-point winners. Dane Swan was prolific with 36 disposals and polled the three Brownlow votes, whilst Darren Jolly and Steele Sidebottom polled two and one vote respectively. Ben Kennedy announced himself as a player, kicking three goals, along with Reid who also kicked three. For the Lions, Simon Black picked up 33 disposals and Ashley McGrath bobbed up with three goals.
At the Selection Table
Given the fact that both sides had such big losses last weekend, I’m expecting movement at the selection table ahead of this week’s match.
Starting with Collingwood, and the news is finally positive on the injury front with Brownlow Medallist Dane Swan expected to return after a month off with foot injuries. His return may be the welcome boost the club needs.
Another in the frame for selection is Luke Ball, who has performed strongly at VFL level over the past fortnight and may be recalled to boost the contested football numbers, while Brodie Grundy and Patrick Karnezis were both also very solid contributors.
Ben Sinclair played his first full game following hamstring injuries and may be considered, while Sam Dwyer faces a fitness test on his hamstring.
Brisbane doesn’t have a lot of options at reserve level, but will likely recall Claye Beams to bolster the midfield. Ryan Lester is another who could be considered. Ashley McGrath will also come into consideration as he kicked three goals when the two sides met last season.
The Lions have lost so many key players to injury this year such as Jack Redden, Daniel Rich, Brent Staker, Matthew Leuenberger, Trent West and Luke McGuane, and Jonathon Brown retired mid-season. The club has found out a lot about its youth, and the signs have been promising so far.
Focus on Collingwood
It has been a week of soul searching for Collingwood, with the young leadership group facing its first really big challenge. The Pies were beaten in just about every area last week by West Coast.
If Buckley could fix just one thing this week, I think it would be Collingwood’s contested football count. The Magpies were bullied around stoppages last week and were totally obliterated in clearances. The potential additions of Luke Ball and Dane Swan may help rectify this situation.
There is a lot of work that is still required in both the forward line and the backline. But if the Magpies can regain their dominance in the centre, then these issues may not be as prevalent since the game will be played on its own terms.
The other non-negotiable for Collingwood this weekend is its intensity. It was well down against West Coast last week. Brisbane is a young side, but also a very quick side. If it cannot tackle hard and win the contested footy, then the Lions may get their running game going and really trouble the Black and Whites.
Player Focus – Collingwood
Dayne Beams – Beams has had a stellar fortnight statistically with 32 and 35 disposals respectively. He is in terrific form, but like all onballers he will need to keep an eye on the defensive elements of his game to ensure his direct opponent does not hurt him the other way. He’ll benefit immensely from the potential returns of Ball and Swan.
Ben Kennedy – Kennedy was probably the shining light for Collingwood last weekend with 21 disposals and two goals, playing a forward/midfield role. In many respects, he took over the role from Jarryd Blair who was required to spend time through the midfield. He has been a substitute so often throughout his career and has only played two full games so far in 2014. On both occasions, he has kicked two goals and been one of his side’s best.
Steele Sidebottom – Since returning from his mid-year suspension, Sidebottom has been in sizzling form. He was one of Collingwood’s best last weekend with 33 disposals and a goal and worked really hard to try and swing momentum back his team’s way. Since returning to the side in round 15, he has averaged 30.5 disposals and kicked six goals. Importantly though, I feel he is Collingwood’s best two-way runner, regularly pushing deep into defence to cover and then working offensively to hit the scoreboard.
Focus on Brisbane
For all the talk about Collingwood’s woes in contested footy, Brisbane is the lowest ranked contested footy side in the competition. This has a lot to do with the youth in the midfield and perhaps the retirement of Simon Black. Nonetheless, it is an area in which the Lions need to be competitive in this week if they are any hope of matching the higher ranked Magpies.
The Lions have also struggled for options up forward since the retirement of Jonathon Brown, only averaging 67 points per game in the second half of the year. It is a very makeshift forward line which relies heavily on getting goals from its quick small players like Dayne Zorko and Josh Green. In recent weeks, the likes of Jack Crisp and Daniel McStay have also presented as genuine forward options.
There is just so much youth in the Brisbane side, and the future looks bright with players such as James Aish, Lewis Taylor, Nick Robertson, Darcy Gardiner, Jonathan Freeman, Sam Mayes, McStay and Crisp all showing really promising signs.
The one area I believe the Lions can trouble Collingwood is its foot speed. With so many speedy youngsters, the Magpies need to be wary and lock down the game. Brisbane has been good this year when it has been able to get some momentum and move the ball freely.
The Wrap Up
As stated above, this is a game the Pies should and must win. If the Lions cause an upset, then it is just about season over for the Magpies and some big questions will be asked.
I expect the Lions to play freely and have a real crack, but the experienced Collingwood midfield should be able to outmuscle and outlast the youthful Brisbane line-up. I also expect Collingwood’s forward line to take control and kick a winning score. The Magpies know how important this match is to help give themselves one last chance of September action.
Pies by 30 points.
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