Collingwood v Brisbane
Saturday August 16, 7.40pm MCG Fox Sports 7.30pm Weather: Min 5 Max 16 Chance of rain 50%: < 1mm Wind: S 18kph Betting: Collingwood $1.14 Brisbane $5.75 |
This weekend, on Saturday night, they host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG in a round 21 matchup that could kill off the Magpies season once and for all. The Lions finals hopes disappeared long ago as they sit in 15th spot with only 6 wins out of 19 games. Brisbane started the season terribly only winning one of their first 9 games so the decision to play as many youngsters as possible became an easy one for coach Justin Leppitsch. Their form has improved though in the second half of the year with 5 wins out of their last 10 games, which is actually the same as what the Magpies have won in that same period. These two clubs do have some history, with the most obvious clashes being in the 2002 and 2003 seasons when they faced off in back to back Grand Finals, with the Lions coming out on top both times. Both senior coaches this week played in those Grand Finals which adds another twist to a game that the Pies simply must win.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Slump, I think that’s the right word to describe what Collingwood are going through at the moment, having won only 2 of their last 8 games. The most recent loss, last weekend over in Perth to the Eagles by 60 points, really solidified that this Magpies outfit is just playing out the season now. Yes there’s still a slight chance they could make the final 8 and play a final or two, but even the most ardent of Collingwood fan wouldn’t believe they can do any damage in September now. It’s fallen away quickly too, after starting the season 8-3 and sitting in 4th spot on the ladder after a win over Melbourne, the Pies were even being talked about as premiership threats. Well that’s over now, they aren’t even a threat to sides around them it seems. Last week’s loss was a disaster though, from start to finish the Pies rarely looked like a finals contending team with very few consistent performers on the day. Their 3 star midfielders did their bit, with Beams, Pendlebury and Sidebottom all racking up decent numbers but their direct opponents also got plenty of the ball. The depth of the Magpies midfield and backline was exposed badly as the Eagles ran rampant and kept their season alive. Amongst the doom and gloom of the last 8 weeks there has been some positives though with the return of Ben Reid and the VFL debut of a few Pies future stars, showing that there is still a light at the end of the tunnel. That loss left Collingwood in 9th and with a big dent to their percentage they probably have to win out to even have a chance of finishing in the top 8 now.
There is some good news in regards to selection for Collingwood this week at least with Dane Swan ready to return after missing a few games through injury. Luke Ball has had 2 good performances in the VFL and should also come back into the 22. The VFL had another good win so there are options from there including Grundy, Karnezis, Thomas, Mooney and Sinclair, with all available for selection this week. Tom Langdon travelled to Perth as the emergency so even he could come back in if the selection committee really want to send a message and make 5-6 changes. No matter what the final selection is though it’s always about intensity for Collingwood, you know early in a game if they are on or not, and against the Eagles it was obvious they weren’t. It would be the final nail in the coffin if they lost to the Lions so more fight is required this week from the Pies players.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
The Lions came into the 2014 season knowing it was going to be tough after losing 5 of their highly rated youngsters to their home stats in the off season. It left the Lions with a very young and inexperienced list and then when the inevitable injuries hit, like they do at all clubs, the depth simply wasn’t there to provide cover. The last 10 weeks have been more promising though as some of those youngsters get more experienced and the Lions injury list shrunk. 5 wins in 10 games is as good as their opponents this week although just like the Pies they are coming off a thumping last weekend. The loss to the Crows was one out of the blue for a Brisbane team who had only lost one game by a big margin since round 9. They will want to redeem themselves this week and show they simply aren’t that bad and they do have a promising future.
The Brisbane Lions midfield is going through a transition and it really has struggled this season. The Lions rank last for contested possessions and sit in the bottom 5 for clearances and centre clearances. It is a young midfield though with names like Rockliff, Aish, Bewick, Hanley, Zorko and Mayes it’s little wonder that they rank poorly in most categories. They have had games where they’ve looked dangerous in the middle though but as with most young groups consistency is an issue. The ruck situation looked dire for a while at the Lions this year with Matthew Leunberger (finally a chance to return this week) missing so much football but in the last few weeks ex Demon Stefan Martin has really filled the hole and has been very impressive. The good news for the Lions is they run into a Pies midfield that isn’t performing well itself, as if you take out the recent win over the Power they’ve been smashed in the middle just about every week.
The Lions defense actually has some experienced campaigners in it with McGuire, Patfull and Adcock providing solidity down back in a team severely lacking that trait. Around them though is inexperience and with the midfield being beaten most weeks the backline hasn’t been able to hold up under the constant barrage of opposition forward entries. The Lions have conceded the 16th most points this season and their away record has been very poor indeed. They do clash with a Pies forward line that has been dysfunctional itself although the likes of Cloke, Elliott, Reid and White should really dominate against a backline of this ilk.
The Brisbane forward line lost one of it’s all time greats in recent weeks when Jonathan Brown called it quits after yet another head injury. Brown had been the rock for so long that had held not only the forward line but the whole team together but without him the Lions have really struggled to put a score on the board, with only one total over 100 for the season. Daniel Merrett has had to stay up forward when he he plays his best football down back, and if you look at the rest of the names in the forward line you can see why. Josh Green is leading the goal kicking for the club with 27 goals, but after that it drops away significantly. Only Jack Crisp averages more than a goal a game outside of Green and the retired Brown. If there’s a positive for the Lions it’s that they face a Pies defense in disarray, a backline that has capitulated several times in the last few months due to it’s own inexperience. It’s the one area of the ground the Lions will have to exploit the Pies if they are to be any chance at all.
The Lions will want to put up a better showing here than they did against the Crows, and their intensity has to more consistent and higher throughout this game. They need to win their fair share of the ball in the middle to be any chance because the only area you can see them exploiting Collingwood is if they can get the ball forward quickly and with accuracy. It’s only the Lions second (and last) game at the MCG this year and with Tom Rockliff playing his 100th game they should put up a fight against a Collingwood side who itself is struggling.
TIP
Collingwood should win this game, but you would have said the same when they played the Bulldogs and the Suns, yet look what happened there. The performance last week may well have been as season low for both clubs and you’d expect they would both come out firing early on with a hard attack on the ball.
Ultimately there just seems to be way too many holes in the Lions young side to worry the Pies at home and Collingwood will come away with a comfortable win.
PIES BY 32 POINTS.
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