Preview Round 23: Collingwood v Hawthorn

AFL

Collingwood v Hawthorn Friday August 29, 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 21 Chance of rain 5%: <1mm Wind: SSW 13kph Betting: Collingwood $9.00 Hawthorn $1.07

COLLINGWOOD has everything to play for as it tries to keep its season alive with a win over Hawthorn. A Magpies win and a Tigers loss to the Sydney Swans would see Collingwood make the finals for the ninth consecutive year. Even if the Magpies cause an upset over the Hawks, they will be sweating on the result of the Swans-Tigers Saturday night clash. A Richmond win would see Collingwood eliminated from the finals race. It's hard to see the Magpies taking down the Hawks, given they are decimated by injury and their opponents will be looking for a perfect tune-up on the eve of finals. 

LAST FIVE TIMES

1. R14, 2014, Hawthorn 17.13 (115) d Collingwood 13.8 (86) at the MCG
2. R21, 2013, Hawthorn 18.11 (119) d Collingwood 12.12 (84) at the MCG
3. R3, 2013, Hawthorn 22.13 (145) d Collingwood 12.12 (84) at the MCG
4. QF1, 2012, Hawthorn 20.15 (135) d Collingwood 15.7 (97) at the MCG
5. R17, 2012, Hawthorn 21.12 (138) d Collingwood 13.13 (91) at the MCG

THE SIX POINTS

1. Hawthorn has now won the past six clashes against the Magpies and seven of the past nine matches between the sides.
2. Hawthorn uses handball more than any other side in the competition. The Hawks average 171.1 handballs per game, compared with the Magpies' 150.3 per game (ranked 14th).
3. The Hawks remain the worst tackling side in season 2014, ranked 18th in the competition, averaging 61.2 per game. The Magpies fare much better, ranked with an average of 71.8.
4. If Collingwood doesn't convert its opportunities, it could be in for a long night. The Hawks are the most accurate team in front of goal in the competition (56.8 per cent). The Magpies are 15th in the competition (46.8 per cent).
5. Hawk forwards Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead and Cyril Rioli combined for nine goals when Hawthorn defeated Collingwood by 29 points earlier this season.
6. Jarryd Blair was Collingwood's top scoring player in Official AFL Player Ratings last round. Hawks midfielder Jordan Lewis is eighth in the competition for average points in the past month.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 38 points