Collingwood v Hawthorn
Friday August 29, 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 21 Chance of rain 5%: <1mm Wind: SSW 14kph Betting: Collingwood $9.00 Hawthorn $1.07 |
It has been a really interesting year to preview Collingwood games given the extent of the team’s injuries, along with the amount of youth that has been required to step up and fill the void.
Although a finals position remains a possibility, I still believe it has been a positive year regardless of this weekend’s result, and the club is well positioned heading into the future.
So let’s delve into this week’s preview.
Collingwood can still scrape into the finals if it beats Hawthorn and Richmond loses to Sydney. It seems an almighty task for the Magpies considering they have not beaten the Hawks since the 2011 Preliminary Final and will be entering the game with as many as 11 first choice players unavailable due to injury.
Hawthorn may be without a few key players given the fact that it is cemented into the top four and looks destined for an MCG final against Geelong, regardless of the result on Friday night.
Nonetheless, the Hawks will be mindful of the fact that if they lose, and the Cats lose to Brisbane, that Fremantle has a small opportunity to leap frog both teams on the ladder and snare a home final, meaning the Hawks would have to travel to Perth in the first week of finals.
This possibility is extremely remote considering the Hawks remain a game and seven percentage points clear, but Alastair Clarkson and his men will want to remove all variables.
It is also unlikely that Clarkson will rest too many of his key players at it is important to have some form of continuity heading into finals and the Hawks won’t want to mess with their recent strong form.
Collingwood has no choice other than to head into this game and give it all it has.
It is likely to be an incredibly young team that will face the reigning premiers, but it is a team that will have gained some confidence from last week’s courageous effort against Greater Western Sydney.
The Formline
There would not have been too many pundits at the beginning of the season who would have claimed a win against Greater Western Sydney as Collingwood’s best win of the season.
But as the circumstances panned out, it could well and truly go down as a defining win in the club’s regeneration.
Following one of their most disastrous losses the week prior to Brisbane, the Magpies entered the match with a team that almost resembled the VFL Magpies, and was further hit during the match with injuries to Dane Swan, Clinton Young and Brent Macaffer.
The Magpies looked down and out as the Giants marched to a 21-point lead in the second quarter.
But the young Pies rallied and fought back to finally hit the lead deep in the final quarter and steal the match.
It must be said that the Giants were also undermanned, but it remains a really gutsy victory considering the way the game was going.
But it’s a completely different prospect this week against the reigning premier which is fresh from a commanding win against arch rivals Geelong.
Despite trailing by as much as five goals, the Hawks managed to kick 10 unanswered goals to totally blow the Cats away.
A half time spray by the coach was the impetus for the turnaround, as the Hawks re-established their premiership credentials for 2014.
It will be interesting to see how the two sides front up to this week’s game.
Collingwood may struggle to get up from a six-day turnaround with a young and battered side, while Hawthorn may suffer from a case of complacency given there are bigger fish to fry in the coming month and this game will likely count for little.
On the other hand, Collingwood still has a finals spot on the line and should throw everything at the game, while Hawthorn would like to enter the finals series with confidence.
Recent History between the Teams
As mentioned above, Collingwood has not beaten Hawthorn since the 2011 Preliminary Final. Hawthorn’s game-style has continually worried the Magpies due to the precision passing and ability to break the game open from defence.
This is the second time these two sides have met this year.
The last encounter was back in round 14 where the Hawks were comfortable 29-point winners. Collingwood did threaten at times and would have taken some confidence out of the game, but the Hawks always had their measure. It was their ability to break the game open in short bursts which was the difference.
Luke Breust was the destroyer with four goals, whilst Jarryd Roughead also bobbed up with three of his own. Jordan Lewis was brilliant with 27 disposals.
Scott Pendlebury was Collingwood’s best with 35 disposals, and Travis Cloke was dominant booting five goals.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood will have at least three forced changes this week with Dane Swan, Clinton Young and Brent Macaffer all ruled out.
Macaffer has torn an ACL and will require his second knee reconstruction.
Swan and Young remain a chance to play again this season provided the Magpies play in September.
Jamie Elliott and Heritier Lumumba both face fitness tests and would be welcome inclusions, while Alan Toovey is also still at least another week away.
At VFL level, the Magpies continue to impress with the likes of Patrick Karnezis, Kyle Martin, Ben Kennedy and Paul Seedsman all performing well in the win against Bendigo. Quinten Lynch, who announced his retirement this week, may also be in line for a farewell game given he booted five goals last week for the VFL Magpies.
Corey Gault has also been promoted off the rookie list and could be a surprise inclusion.
Turning the attention onto Hawthorn, and it looks as if there will be at least two forced changes this weekend, with the club likely to take a cautious approach on any player with a niggling injury.
Jack Gunston (ankle) and Matt Suckling (knee) will likely miss this Friday’s game but should be right for the first week of finals.
There is plenty in reserve, though, with Ryan Schoenmakers a logical replacement for Gunston, while Taylor Duryea could slot back into the side for Suckling.
Billy Hartung will also be available should any other Hawthorn midfield require a rest and Ben McEvoy remains on the cusp of selection as well, although Clarkson seems to favour ex-Magpie Jonathon Ceglar in the back-up ruck role at the moment.
It is important to note that both Collingwood and the Box Hill Hawks will play the first week of finals at VFL level this weekend.
Can the Magpies cause an upset?
Logic says that Collingwood is going to struggle this weekend. Even if Hawthorn does decide to rest a few key players, the Magpies will still be far more undermanned with a makeshift forward line, makeshift midfield and inexperienced defence.
The Hawks have battled injuries all year, but have a fit list heading into September, meaning there are plenty of players at VFL level who can comfortably fill the void this week if required.
But all is not lost yet.
History shows that the final round of the season always throws up a few upsets and can be quite unpredictable. It will be a mental test for the Hawks considering the players must be thinking about how close they are to September.
Even if Hawthorn drops a spot on the ladder, its first finals match will almost certainly be against Geelong at the MCG, meaning there will be no home ground advantage.
Collingwood also has the advantage of having nothing to lose.
I feel there is no doubt that Hawthorn will be casting its mind onto next week. Therefore, Collingwood must come out red hot to ensure the Hawks do not get the game on their own terms. With a young side, it will be important that the Magpies get a good start to build some self-belief.
Focus on Collingwood
It was not a pretty win last week, but the pleasing part was the amount of heart the side showed. It was a good day to be a Collingwood fan, and it was a win that will be replayed to the side over the off-season to draw on some inspiration.
Collingwood has continued to struggle in the clearances and was beaten in this department by the Giants for most of the match. But in the last quarter, Buckley played both his young ruckmen (Jarrod Witts and Brodie Grundy) on the ball and double-teamed the dominant Shane Mumford. This tactic worked and completely nullified Mumford’s influence. As a result, the Magpies began gaining the ascendency around the stoppages. It is a tactic I feel we’ll likely see employed this week against Hale and Ceglar.
Player Focus
Josh Thomas – After a breakthrough year in 2013, many were expecting Thomas to take his game to the next level in 2014. Unfortunately, a limited pre-season got his season off to the wrong start, and he has failed to find any consistency at senior level. This has seen him in and out of the side, but his VFL form has always been solid. He took his opportunity last week and played his best game for the club this season (and perhaps his career). Despite body cramps, Thomas led the midfield with 28 disposals and kicked three crucial goals. He will look to back up his great game this week against strong opposition and then carry this momentum into pre-season. Season 2015 looms as a huge year for Thomas, but the signs are really positive.
Tim Broomhead – Broomhead is another youngster to really take his chance. His form has been terrific at AFL level and he is proving a really dangerous player in front of goal. He has kicked eight goals in seven games, but it must be noted that his first two games were as substitute and he had little game-time. He brings pace and class to the side and looks a real player of the future. He had to battle glandular fever in his first season at the club, but his second season has been fantastic, showing he has a really bright future ahead. He is another who will be looking forward to a strong pre-season as he builds his fitness.
Focus on Hawthorn
There is no secret to Hawthorn’s dominance. All teams know that the key to stopping Hawthorn is preventing its run off half back and limiting its ability to pin-point targets.
It is also necessary to get on top in the midfield and make the most of opportunities, given the Hawks have a shorter defence than most, which can give the best key forwards a chance. Travis Cloke, for example, has a terrific record against Hawthorn.
Although we all know what to expect, there are very few teams in the AFL that have managed to break down Hawthorn’s system.
Once Hawthorn get its running game going, the forward line is simply too dangerous and will put the game away in the blink of an eye. You also can’t rest for a second against the Hawks, because they can turn a game in five-minute bursts.
The Magpies need to get on top in clearances and lock it in the 50 metre arc. I feel that Collingwood needs to make the game ugly and not let the Hawks get their precision kicking style flowing.
Again, this is easier said than done considering the Hawthorn midfield is a big bodied and experienced unit with the likes of Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell, Jordan Lewis and Shaun Burgoyne.
Player Focus
Bradley Hill – When these sides last met, Buckley sent Macaffer to do the tagging job on Hill. Hill had a huge first quarter, but Macaffer fought back to probably take the honours on the day. But the toll it took on Macaffer was evident, with the Magpie tagger seen vomiting at the quarter time huddle due to Hill’s huge work-rate. Hill is an elite endurance runner and his burst speed is impossible to catch. Without Macaffer this Friday night, the Magpies may be forced to use Marley Williams or Jackson Ramsey in the role, which is a huge ask for players not used to midfield tagging duties. Hill looms as the game-breaker.
Grant Birchall – It has been a season with little fanfare for Birchall, but he remains the player most sides elect to tag from the back half. Without Suckling, Birchall must be stopped this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see Tyson Goldsack thrown forward in a defensive job to try and keep him accountable. As stated above, Hawthorn’s greatest strength is its run from half back, so the Magpies need to be mindful of this.
The Wrap Up
It may be a next to impossible task, but don’t write the Magpies off this Friday. There is plenty of the line and it has been a year of upsets.
If Collingwood does manage to cause the upset, all eyes will then turn to Richmond’s encounter against Sydney, as that match will define the top eight.
Should the Tigers also cause an upset, they will dislodge Collingwood from the top eight and make the finals.
If both Richmond and Collingwood lose, the door remains ajar for West Coast and Adelaide to scrape into the eight.
It’s a huge match and I hope to see all fans at the MCG to support the team.
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