| Collingwood v Brisbane Friday May 31 7.50pm GABBA 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 14 Max 23 Chance of rain 60%: 1-5mm Wind: ESE 19kph Betting: Collingwood $1.18 Brisbane $5.00 |
LAST TIME: Brisbane Lions 8.10 (58) defeated by Collingwood 17.14 (116) at the Gabba, Round 7, 2012
WALKING WOUNDED:
The Lions enter the match depleted of their best players, with Matthew Leuenberger (thumb) and Tom Rockliff (quad) joining suspended duo Jonathan Brown and Daniel Merrett on the sidelines. Daniel Rich (shoulder) is also unavailable, while Mitch Golby faces a late fitness test.
For the Magpies, Heath Shaw has seemingly overcome a sore back and high skinfolds and will add composure to the Collingwood defence. Any other changes will be based on form.
Veterans Alan Didak and Ben Johnson continue to knock down the door thanks to their strong VFL form and youngsters Kyle Martin and Jackson Paine also have selection claims.
FORM:
Michael Voss' men enter the match on the back of a disappointing loss against Carlton, a result which offset their confidence-lifting triumph over Essendon on the road the week before. One area the Lions do have an advantage is clearances. They are ranked 11th, while Collingwood is ranked 15th.
A week after knocking off Geelong, the Magpies copped a Friday-night hiding at the hands of Sydney last week and find themselves outside the top eight. Collingwood have been in a win-loss pattern since Round 2, and while a win wouldn't pull them out of the logjam of middle teams, a loss would cast doubt on their ability to make the finals. At least the Pies have a relatively soft run after this week, with matches against Melbourne and the Bulldogs before their Round 13 bye.
WE THINK:
A full-strength Brisbane team would be a genuine chance of handing Collingwood their second interstate loss of the season. But unfortunately, the Lions have been left decimated with no Brown, Merrett, Leuenberger or Rockliff on top of the already grounded Daniel Rich.
And they will find the going tough against a Collingwood side desperate to bounce back after one of their poorest displays in a long time on Friday night against the Swans. The Lions, who haven't featured in a Friday night match since their last finals appearance against the Western Bulldogs at the MCG almost four years ago.
The last time the Gabba hosted a Friday night blockbuster was back in Round 4 of 2009, when Collingwood booted the final five goals of a tightly contested match to overcome the Lions by 17 points. We think it will be a similar result.
Collingwood will win a scrappy game by 14 points.
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