HEAD TO HEAD: Played: 23, Fremantle 8, Collingwood 15
LAST TIME: Collingwood 15.17 (107) def Fremantle 12.6 (78) at the MCG, Round 14 2012
| Collingwood v Fremantle Saturday, May 11 5.40pm WST Patersons Stadium Fox Sports 7.30pm EST Weather: Min 12 Max 21 Chance of rain 40%: <1mm Wind: SSW 21kp/h Betting: Collingwood $1.70 Fremantle $2.18 |
FORM: The Dockers have now won two on the trot, with their most recent triumph an impressive 45-point victory over the Suns on the Gold Coast on Saturday night. Before that the Dockers beat Richmond in a tight encounter, with Ross Lyon's team having lost just once at home this season against Essendon in Round 6. Like the Dockers, the Pies are also 4-2 this season, showing glimpses of their best last round in defeating St Kilda by 26 points. This match is the first time in 2013 that the Pies have played outside Melbourne.
WE THINK: Any time the Pies get on a plane and travel outside Melbourne they are hard to beat and we expect this match to be no different. The Dockers look much weaker without Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands and Nat Fyfe in their line-up, while the Pies have a plethora of match-winners in their team. If Travis Cloke doesn't fire, then Andrew Krakouer will. If Krakouer is down then impressive youngster Jamie Elliott can step up in front of goal. It's never wise to underrate a team coached by Ross Lyon, but we expect the Pies to have a bit too much firepower.
Collingwood by 15 points.
SportsMatt
On Saturday night in Perth Collingwood and Fremantle will do battle in a crucial round 7 matchup in the 2013 AFL Premiership season. Both these clubs entered the season wanting to contest for the premiership and after four rounds they find themselves just off the pace of the top teams with a respective record of 4 wins and 2 losses. That alone shows how important a game this is as the loser of this match up will drop two games outside of the top four and find themselves in a battle just to make the final eight, let alone get a position up amongst the premiership contenders of the league. While there's a few reason why the Pies and Dockers are where they are, the major reason is a poor run with injury, and more accurately injuries to key players.
Collingwood will go into this game without the likes of Maxwell, Beams, Ball, Toovey and Young while the Dockers still can not call upon captain Matthew Pavlich or number one ruckman Aaron Sandilands. Most clubs don't like to use injuries as an excuse but when the loser of this game goes to a record of 4-3 you can be sure that the supporters will be looking towards the long and talented injury list as an explanation as to what has gone wrong so far in the 2013 season.
PREVIOUS FORM
There has been signs that both of these clubs are still capable of playing football at near the highest level with relatively easy wins recorded by both Collingwood and Fremantle last weekend. Freo travelled to the Gold Coast to face the Suns and the Dockers didn't waste too much time taking an advantage in the game by keeping the locals goal less in the first quarter. That set the tone for the game as Fremantle found it easy to score while for the Suns it was a battle as the Dockers ran away with a 45 point win to get them back on the winners list after two straight losses. The coaching staff would have been happy with the forward line, especially Michael Walters and Jonathan Griffin who between them notched up 7 goals. Luke McPharlin played his usual dominant role down back and as usual launched plenty of attacks from the backline also. It was a win the Dockers needed and sets them up for a crack at a tougher opponent this weekend.
Collingwood faced off against St Kilda at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne on Friday night and the first half was about as ugly a display of football as you could see considering the stadium's roof was closed. The Magpies started poorly and at one stage trailed by a few goals to the struggling Saints before Scott Pendlebury, Dale Thomas, Dane Swan and Travis Cloke lifted their efforts and intensity and took the side to a 10 goal to 6 second half that eventually gave the Pies a much needed 26 point win. Cloke could have kicked 9-10 goals if he was accurate as he dominated the Saints backline on just about every forward 50 entry. But it was the Collingwood midfield that eventually got on top as returning ruckman Darren Jolly lead the way in the middle with a great game after missing a few weeks with a rib injury. It wasn't a pretty win for the Pies but they did get better as the game went on and for the first time in a long time came through a game injury free.
COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
The Magpies aren't firing on all cylinders yet but it's only early in the season and they will soon get back some of their best players from injury. Last weekend showed once again that the side is capable of disposing of the teams who aren't elite in a fairly easy manner although against Fremantle they will have to raise their game if they are to defeat the locals on their home turf. At the selection table this week coach Nathan Buckley and his staff have a few tough decisions to make with Alan Didak, Luke Ball, Caolon Mooney, Jordan Russell and Marley Williams all impressing in the VFL over the past two weeks and pushing for senior selection. Didak and Ball are gradually reaching peak fitness after missing the start of the season (of course due to injury) and with no VFL games this weekend both will be considered for the trip to Perth. Didak may be needed more than most though as Collingwood needs more support up forward with only Cloke, Sidebottom and Elliott as consistent scoring options so far in 2013. Ball is obviously a key to the Magpies chances this season but he is still probably one week away from returning to the seniors. Collingwood has a great recent record interstate and it seems that the trip away galvanises a team that in Melbourne is nearly always the centre of attention, yet on the road can be just another sporting team travelling and hoping to perform at their best. The Magpies won a pre season game against the Eagles at Patterson's Stadium so the ground will hold no fears at all for the players this weekend.
OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Fremantle came into the 2013 season looking to improve upon their performance of last year that saw them eliminated in the second week of the finals in Adelaide. They did however win their first final in Melbourne the week before against the Cats in a win that surely gave the club the confidence to push towards a top four spot the following year. The Dockers started this season well enough but a few recent losses, especially the home loss to the Bombers, has set them back just a little and they enter this game with a must win mentality if they are to remain a serious challenger this season. Once again the injury curse has hit the Dockers though, with Pavlich, Sandilands, Clarke, Morabito, Fyfe and Bradley all missing significant games so far this season. They do possess talent though and as shown last week on the Gold Coast if they are allowed to play a more natural game they can be dangerous.
The Dockers midfield is often under rated in my opinion as it currently sits sixth in clearances and above Collingwood in contested possessions also. Some of the names in the Freo midfield rotation may not immediately be recognisable but they do their job in a more than effective manner. Mundy, Barlow, Suban, Deboer, Crowley, Pearce, Hill, Mzungu and Duffield make up the list of the usual characters in the midfield rotation and on most occasions they are fairly successful in this area. The absence of Nathan Fyfe is a blow but the Pies will be missing Beams and most likely Ball so it is counter acted somewhat. One area where Fremantle is struggling, not unlike the Pies, is in the ruck and that's no surprise with both Zac Clarke and Aaron Sandilands both out injured at the moment, although Clarke is close to a return. In fact coming into this round the Dockers are only ranked 10th in total hitouts in a category they usually dominate although their opponents this week trail everyone in comparison. Freo have been using current no.1 ruck choice Jonathon Griffin up forward a fair bit while youngster Jack Hannath has been taking the ruck responsibilities, or at least he did last week in the majority. The absence of Sandilands and Clarke may also mean that the Magpies only go with one genuine ruckman instead of the two they played last week.
The Dockers defense is stronger than most also believe it is and the game style of coach Ross Lyon obviously assists in keeping the opposition score down. The backline is led by one of the best defenders in the AFL, Luke McPharlin who has a very good recent record on the Pies no.1 forward Travis Cloke. McPharlin is well supported by two key position defenders in Zac Dawson and Michael Johnson although you do wonder if they are going in a little bit tall down back if the Pies don't decide to play the two ruckman this weekend. Freo's run out of the backline is relatively strong with Ibbotson, Mzungu, Clancee Pearce, Spurr, McPharlin and Johnson all capable of launching attacks out of defence although they will have to be mindful of the Collingwood small/medium forwards who are dangerous if left alone. You can bet that once again this week the Collingwood forward line will be flooded with opposition players just like it was last week by a team still playing a Ross Lyon like game plan, St Kilda. Whether that game served as a dress rehearsal for the Magpies in terms of game style will only be known on Saturday night but it couldn't have hurt, that's for sure.
Fremantle's forward line is a little depleted due to the absence of Pavlich and Sandilands but it still has enough talent to worry the Collingwood defense and has the one thing that the Magpies do struggle to defend against, and that's small, pacy, dangerous forwards. Fremantle will almost solely rely on their small/medium forwards and their midfield to kick the majority of their score on Saturday night and that's obvious to see when you look at their forward statistical ranking so far this year. The Dockers rank 15th for contested marks and 12th for marks inside 50 which is a great indicator that they are now more reliant on their smaller forwards than ever. The move of Griffin forward over the past few weeks has paid dividends but it's been Ballantyne and Walters, along with the ever reliable Mayne who have been the most consistent forwards for Freo so far this season. I mentioned that small forwards are Collingwood's weakness and that has been compounded by the absence of captain Nick Maxwell and reliable defender Alan Toovey, with the latter of course out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Fremantle's game plan in regards to scoring will be quite obvious, they will try and get the ball in as quickly as possible to allow the pace of their forwards to expose the Magpies backline and it may be the biggest advantage that the Dockers have on Saturday night.
This is a big game for Fremantle, just like it is Collingwood but the home team will feel that they can't let another home game slip so early in the season and fall to a record of 4-3. The game will be a sell out, it's just about guaranteed wherever the Pies go and the Purple Army will be in full voice which will give the Dockers an advantage for sure. At the selection table you wouldn't be anticipating too many changes for Freo with Steven Hill and Zac Clarke the only probably inclusions although Clarke may still be a week or two away from returning. Who goes out is up for debate but names like Crozier, Mzungu and Sutcliffe are the popular choice going around. The Dockers will go into this game a little bit depleted by injuries but for once they run into a side that probably has it worse than them and this will give them some confidence that they can pull off a big, and much needed win at home.
TIP
This game will be close and hard fought and with inclement weather in Perth over the next few days and on game day itself the game may become a low scoring contested possession based contest and neither side would be too worried about that. Ross Lyon has coached against this Magpies outfit on plenty of occasions and will know how to exploit some of the weaknesses that currently exist but on the other side the Pies have had a good recent record against the Dockers and in Perth so they won't be fearing the opposition too much either.
The changes to either side won't influence the result too much unless Luke Ball is selected as he could make a remarkable difference to a Pies midfield that is struggling at the moment. Alan Didak is likely to return and his reputation and past deeds demand that a top class defender be sent his way which can only help out the rest of the Magpies forward line in gaining time and space, but he's not the player he used to be so his influence would be limited. Fremantle will look to exploit Collingwood's weakened midfield but mostly it's defense and it's in this are that the Dockers surely have their greatest advantage. As always at the other end the Cloke and McPharlin battle will almost be worth the price of admission alone but it's a different beast that McPharlin faces this week with the Magpie champ spending almost all his time inside the forward 50 in an obvious change from recent years.
As I said, I expect this game to be close and hard fought for it's entirety which does make it a difficult game to predict and it may well be decided by another dodgy umpire call (all teams have seen plenty of those lately) or luck in regards to injuries and when each team can use their respective sub. Ultimately I think the Collingwood midfield runs into an outfit that is not performing at a level that is as dangerous as the two sides who have defeated the Pies and that give them an advantage that might be the difference.
PIES BY 8 POINTS.
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