The Lead Up:
| Collingwood v Sydney Friday, May 24 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 16 Chance of rain 30%: <1mm Wind: W 23kph Betting: Collingwood $1.65 Sydney $2.25 |
Both sides had very tough matches last round with the Magpies pulling off an impressive six point upset over the undefeated Geelong, while the Swans can consider themselves extremely fortunate to have scored two points in a thrilling draw against Fremantle.
Sydney currently sits in fourth position, but has been far from convincing over the last month. The reigning premiers are finding ways to win against most sides, but have been exposed by two of the better sides in Geelong and Hawthorn. Fremantle also showed some cracks in the Swans armour. Therefore, the Swans will be keen to take a big name scalp on the big stage to reinstate its position in the competition as one of the heavyweights.
Collingwood was outstanding last week and returned to some of its trademark tackling and defensive pressure. Nonetheless, its form over the past month has been extremely patchy, and coach Nathan Buckley would still be concerned by Geelong’s eight goal third quarter. It has been a disappointing trend for the Magpies, who have had a number of fade outs during patches of games this year.
Against this extremely even Sydney side, the Magpies cannot afford any lapses in concentration. The Swans rank first in the competition in clearances, which is largely due to the fact that they rank first in hitouts. In contrast, Collingwood is ranked last for hitouts and 15th for clearances. Sydney also only concedes an average of 84 points per game, while Collingwood averages 100. Sydney is also the number one ranked tackling team; Collingwood is languishing in 11th.
However, if Collingwood can maintain the intensity shown last week, it can match it with Sydney and worry the Swans all over the ground.
Recent History
Prior to the Preliminary Final last year, the Magpies had won 11 encounters against the Swans in a row. The win against Collingwood in the Prelim broke the curse and will leave Sydney with a lot of confidence.
However, these two sides have not met at the MCG since round 19 2009, so there is little guide to go on at this venue.
In the last meeting, it was the evenness of the Sydney midfield which proved too much for the Magpies to handle. Ryan O’Keefe had 34 disposals and Daniel Hannebery 33, while Jarrad McVeigh and Josh Kennedy both had 30 disposals. Lewis Jetta was electric with three goals and generally tore the Magpies defence to shreds throughout the game. In contrast, Scott Pendlebury was the only Magpie to pick up 30 or more disposals, with Dayne Beams the next best contributor with 27. Travis Cloke was also prominent with three goals.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood’s injury woes went from bad to worse this week with Dale Thomas ruled out for at least three months due to an ankle operation. Meanwhile, Beams is not expected to return until after the mid-season break after scans to his injured quad revealed there are scar tissue issues. Tyson Goldsack remains around a fortnight away with a hip injury.
In more positive news, Ben Johnson returned strongly at VFL level last week but may require a bit more match fitness before he is eligible to return to the senior side. Alan Didak also continues to perform strongly at VFL level, booting three goals last week. Jackson Paine could be in line for selection after kicking five goals in his best performance for the year. In further positive news, young talls Brodie Grundy and Lachlan Keeffe will play their first VFL games of the season this round.
Heath Shaw is also due to return after serving his one week suspension. Darren Jolly had his report thrown out on Monday so he is also eligible to play.
Turning the focus onto Sydney and the injury list is not as extensive but there are still some concerns surrounding a few players. Marty Mattner faces a fitness test before he is able to return to the side, while Rhyce Shaw and Lewis Roberts-Thomson are also still sidelined. Alex Johnson has been ruled out for the season following his knee reconstruction and there is still no timeframe placed on the return of Gary Rohan.
However, there is still plenty of depth in the list with fringe players like Dane Rampe, Tommy Walsh, Mitch Morton, Tony Armstrong and Andrejs Everitt all getting opportunities of late. Youngsters Jed Lamb and Tom Mitchell also continue to push for selection.
Focus on Collingwood
The win against Geelong can largely be attributed to the increased forward pressure and relentless tackling. It was more like the Collingwood we have become accustomed to and at times it was irresistible to watch. That said, it is a totally new challenge this week against a side that plays a very different brand of football.
While Geelong relies on a high risk, high reward style of offence, Sydney is a much more defensively oriented team and has a more contested football focus. Therefore, Collingwood needs to match Sydney around the stoppages and try to nullify the influence of Mike Pyke and Shane Mumford in the ruck.
It was good to see the small forwards return to form last round. Jamie Elliott has been quiet in recent weeks, but bounced back with three goals and 17 disposals. Andrew Krakouer had his best game of the year against the Cats with three crucial goals and 19 disposals. Both really lifted their defensive pressure as well.
Luke Ball – There is no coincidence that Collingwood’s relentless tackling pressure returned in the same game that Luke Ball made his long awaited return from a knee injury. Although he returned modest figures of eight kicks and seven handballs, he was Collingwood’s second highest tackler with six and allowed players like Jarryd Blair and Steele Sidebottom a lot more freedom. The second game back is usually the toughest, but Sydney is the sort of team that Ball enjoys playing against, and is likely to square off against Kennedy or McVeigh through the middle. There is also no underestimating the value of his on-field leadership.
Sam Dwyer – Many experts are now labelling him as the recruit of the year following his 27 disposal, three goal game against the Cats. This is on the back of an impressive game against Fremantle as well. He has played in all eight games for the Magpies this year and has seemingly cemented his spot in the side. His decision making is a real feature and he is averaging a goal a game. He is playing a very important role to the team on a half forward flank and midfield rotation, which is helping to ease the loss of players such as Beams and Alex Fasolo.
Harry O’Brien – It was perhaps Harry’s best game in his career last round against Geelong with 31 disposals. His run and dash through the middle was a real feature, but importantly he was also accountable in defence and his assistance down back in the absence of Heath Shaw was pivotal. He was also crucial at chopping off a lot of Geelong’s forays forward. Despite a slightly inconsistent month, Harry has become an important utility as he is showing a real blend of attack and defence.
Focus on Sydney
Sydney continues to sneak under the radar as a genuine premiership threat which is surprising considering the Swans are the reigning champions and currently sit in fourth spot on the ladder. Kurt Tippett is also due to return in the second half of the year and will add a new dimension to the side. It means that Sydney is well positioned to challenge again this year for the flag.
Nonetheless, there is no doubting that Sydney has not quite clicked yet this year. Many of its wins have been workmanlike and it is still to claim a really big scalp. The forward line has not necessarily fired, and the defence has shown some vulnerabilities. But its midfield remains one of the best in the competition and the Swans remain a really hard team to beat.
If Sydney continues its trend and dominates in the ruck and clearances, it should be able to get enough goals from its midfield to worry Collingwood.
Dan Hannebery – Hannebery made a name for himself in last year’s finals series and was one of the best in the Grand Final. This confidence carried through into the pre-season where he was largely regarded as one of Sydney’s best off-season performers. His form so far in 2013 has been fantastic and he is seemingly getting better with every round. This culminated in a best of ground performance last week with 27 disposals and four goals in a low scoring game. He continues to slip under the radar, but must demand attention this round.
Ryan O’Keefe – O’Keefe has had a quieter start to the year but usually plays well against the Magpies. He is still averaging 24 disposals a game and is also one of Sydney’s most prolific tacklers. I believe Buckley will use Brent Macaffer in a tagging role against O’Keefe as he can be so damaging and a game-breaker. Macaffer has done terrific jobs on Joel Selwood and David Mundy in recent weeks and looks set to get thrown a big task again this round.
Kieren Jack – Jack is definitely one of the most underrated players in the competition and epitomises the culture of the Sydney Swans with his team ethos and strong work ethic. He typically matches up on the best opposition midfielder whilst also winning an enormous amount of the ball himself. He was excellent against Fremantle, squaring off against Nat Fyfe and picking up 33 disposals and 11 tackles. Expect him to spend time on Pendlebury this round.
The Wrap Up
Collingwood’s record against Sydney will give them confidence, as will the fact that this game is played at the MCG. Sydney is one of the toughest teams to beat and will expose the Magpies if a few players are not contributing.
Neither side has hit its best form as yet, but are both slowly working into the season and setting themselves up for a strong back-end. This makes this game so crucial as the loser will be on the fringe of the top eight, while the winner will be well cemented around the top four. It is also a chance for both sides to claim a big name scalp. Collingwood has had a tough draw to date so a win this weekend will leave it very well placed.
The Magpies have a number of younger players in the side which is typically dangerous against this experienced and battle hardened Sydney outfit. But if Collingwood can get the even team performance which it did last round, then I think it can knock off the reigning premiers on Friday night. Collingwood cannot afford any passengers.
Pies by 11.
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