The Lead Up:
| Collingwood v Sydney Friday, May 24 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 7 Max 16 Chance of rain 30%: <1mm Wind: W 23kph Betting: Collingwood $1.65 Sydney $2.25 |
The Swans haven’t really hit their straps so far in season 2013, but as we saw last year, the reigning premiers know how important it is to peak at the right time. A reasonably soft start to the year has inflated their record slightly – the Swans have suffered losses at the hands of fellow heavyweights Hawthorn and Geelong and are coming off an emotionally draining draw with the Dockers.
Keys to Victory:
Collingwood -
Buckley will now demand his boys maintain the defensive intensity from last week’s gutsy win. This level of pressure must now be the benchmark for Collingwood moving forward. While there have been injuries to key players, a lack of effort can’t be excused – whoever takes to the field for the black and white army must attack the man and the ball with the same amount of vigour.
Once they get the ball the Pies will look to run and spread, especially with rebound off the half back line. Harry O’Brien was back to his best dash and carry last week. He has thrived on the move further up the ground and with Heath Shaw coming back the two have the potential to provide plenty of drive.
Sydney are also missing some key personnel including LRT and the under rated Alex Johnson which robs the Swans of defensive options. To avoid falling into the trap of congested/contested football, the Pies will need to move the ball quickly and give Travis Cloke, Quentin Lynch and Andrew Krakouer time and space to lead & operate in. They’ll be aided in this playing on the MCG, an oval much more suited to their style of football (the Pies have won 14 of their last 20 at the ‘G, the Swans have only won 2 from 17 starts – but one of those was the all important grand final).
Sydney -
It’s been quite an “un-Sydney like” performance so far in 2013. Horse Longmire will be doing everything he can to ensure his men are switched on mentally from the first bounce as they can’t afford to fall behind early against the Pies who have found some form.
The Swans love a hard tough, contested brand of football which suits the confines of the SCG. With players such as Jude Bolton, Keiran Jack and Jarryd McVeigh leading the way in the middle, they’ll look to clamp down on the Collingwood onballers and force as many contests as they can.
Don’t often get beaten by large scores and will be keen to get numbers back into space, clog up the Collingwood forward line and then “slingshot” forward. This will have the dual effect of taking away room for Cloke to lead and/or get one out and also allow defenders to go up third man.
It’s essential that the Swans are able to turn the game into something of a dogfight and they’ll desperately need their midfielders to hit the scoreboard if they hope to kick a big enough score.
Key Match Ups:
Mumford vs Jolly – Mumford has long been lauded for his lion hearted efforts and is seen as a bargain recruit for the Swans. Can’t question the big mans endeavor but is currently a shadow of his former dominant self. Really needs to rebound and stick it up some critics with a huge effort against Darren Jolly. Lynch/Pyke provide relief in the ruck and neutralize each other to a degree, both will spend more time forward. With that in mind whoever gets the upper hand from Jolly and Mumford will give their onball units first crack – this seems more important for the Swans.
Luke Ball vs Jude Bolton – Two senior players who love nothing more than getting their hands dirty and doing the grunt work. Can’t question eithers attack on the ball or willingness to put their head over the pill. It’s no surprise that Collingwood’s intensity lifted with the return of Ball and will be interesting to see how he backs up. Might not go directly head-to-head but both play similar roles for their clubs and will provide the opportunity for the outside runners to do what they do best.
Mattner vs Cloke – Mattner is currently listed as a test to return from injury and the Swans will be praying he gets up. Sydney look a little light down back and will rely on midfielders and flanks pushing back into space.
Kennedy/Hannebury vs Swan/Pendlebury – be great to see these gun onballers go against each other. Kennedy is often forgotten about when discussing the games best mids (especially in the southern states) while Hannebury has taken his game to almost elite level, just needs to remain consistent against the good sides. Swan and Pendlebury have both been nearing their best footy in recent weeks and will be keys to the Magpie drive. McCaffer has been the Pies go to stopper – expect him to head toward Hannebury.
Questions:
Injuries have cruelled both sides, who will cover them better?
The Swans have been without Shaw, Mattner, LRT, Garry Rohan and Johnson while the Pies have missed Goldsack, Young, Beams, Thomas, Fasolo and Toovey. At this stage it seems like Collingwood have the better depth to plug the holes. Mattner might return for Sydney while Heath Shaw is back from suspension for the Magpies which offsets the loss of Daisy Thomas to a degree. Players such as Dwyer and Elliot have stepped up for Collingwood and are now regular senior players & are keeping names such as Didak out of the side.
Can Sydney kick a winning score?
Sam Reid has been much maligned this season, recently signed a long term contract and much is expected of the young man. To-date he is still living more on potential than what he is actually providing on field. Tom Walsh has done little to set the world on fire since moving north and last week had a handful of disposals including a couple of clangers. Mitch Morton appears to have fallen out of favour again (after his grand final heroics) and Mumford isn’t really a ruckman who kicks goals while resting forward. As always the club would love a couple of Adam Goodes and McGlynn will need to be up and about and as mentioned, it is essential that their mids kick goals & they keep it a close, low scoring affair.
Are the Swans suffering from a premiership hangover?
It’s always a tough ask to back up following the emotional outpouring that comes with winning a flag – it’s what makes the Geelongs and Brisbanes of recent times so exceptional. Sydney are a very proud club with a highly regarded culture, it’s hard to imagine their leaders would let the players get too far ahead of themselves. Don’t think it’s a hangover, think the current form is more to do with the late start, the soft opening couple of rounds and injuries to key players in key positions. There’s no doubt that backing up is hard but still expect the Swans to be pushing for top 4 at the end of the year – they still have Tippett to add to the mix and hopefully provide goal kicking options.
Will the Pies maintain the heat?
After seeing the rewards for effort last week you’d expect the Pies to come out breathing fire. Playing the reigning premiers at this stage is probably a good thing, there’s the extra motivation to get one over a top team and prove that last week wasn’t a fluke.
Conclusion:
Pies last week got the energy boost they needed and playing on the G will suit them to the ground. The Pies kick more than the Swans who prefer to handball, a sign of their in close brand of footy. Collingwood look to have to many attacking options and the numbers they can rotate through the middle from flanks gives them the edge.
Prediction:
Pies by 23 points.
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