| Collingwood v Sydney Friday, May 24 7.50pm MCG 7mate / Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 5 Max 17 Chance of rain 10%: <1mm Wind: SW 15kph Betting: Collingwood $1.57 Sydney $2.45 |
LAST TIME: Sydney 13.18 (96) def Collingwood 10.10 (70), Preliminary Final, 2012 at Stadium Australia
WALKING WOUNDED: Collingwood suffered no new injuries from last week's win over Geelong, but there were two big setbacks for two of their stars. Dale Thomas went in for ankle surgery and won't be seen until the final rounds at the very earliest, while Dayne Beams continues to struggle with his quad with his return not expected until after the bye. Former Hawk Clinton Young is still three weeks away with his hamstring issue, while Lachlan Keeffe and Brodie Grundy will play in the VFL this week. Fringe players Jake Frost (knee) and Jackson Ramsay (wrist) are a while off, while Alan Toovey's year is over after he ruptured his ACL against Essendon on ANZAC Day.
Sydney came through their draw with Fremantle unscathed and still have one of the smallest injury lists in the competition. Rhyce Shaw remains a week-to-week proposition with his abdominal strain, while Lewis Roberts-Thompson is still a month away with his knee problem. The season is over for Alex Johnson and Gary Rohan remains sidelined indefinitely.
FORM: After three losses in five games, Collingwood returned to form magnificently with a stunning six-point win over the previously undefeated Cats. The Pies were all over Geelong early and built a 26-point lead before the Cats hit back to lead by 13 at the final change. But against the odds, Collingwood finished the better of the two sides to notch a confidence-building win. Before that win the Pies had look shaky with disappointing losses to Fremantle (27 points), Essendon (46) and Hawthorn (55). They have had a tough start to the year though and been pretty impressive in their other wins over North Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and St Kilda.
Question marks are hovering around the reigning premiers after their patchy form continued last week against Fremantle. The Swans looked set for an easy win when they booted the first three goals of the final term, but the Dockers fought back with the final four goals to pinch a draw in a disappointing result for the hosts. It caps of a poor fortnight after Sydney were smashed the week before by Hawthorn in their grand final rematch. Sydney do have five wins on the board, but the highest ranked team they have beaten are 12th-placed Gold Coast.
WE THINK: Collingwood and Sydney always seem to have classic matches, but they are usually played at Stadium Australia, rather than in Melbourne. This will be the first clash between the two sides at the MCG since 2009 and just the fourth since 2000. The Magpies have traditionally owned the Swans with 11 straight wins before Sydney broke their hoodoo in last year's preliminary final which set them up for their stunning upset win over Hawthorn in the grand final.
Collingwood produced the kind of performance we expect from them last week as they out-tackled and out-harassed the Cats on their way to victory. Despite key absentees the Pies still have more than enough quality with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan and Luke Ball pulling strings in the midfield.
Sydney are in an interesting position as they haven't really beaten anyone of note and failed in their three serious tests against Geelong and Hawthorn, while they let a match-winning lead slip to draw with Fremantle. There is no doubt they still have the quality to match it with the top sides, but maybe age is catching up with them.
This is a massive match for both clubs and will tell us a lot about where their top four and premiership credentials are, but given it's at the MCG we will go with the hosts in a tight one.
Collingwood by 12 points.
No comments :
Post a Comment