| Collingwood v Geelong Saturday, May 18 7.40pm MCG Fox Footy 7.30pm Weather: Min 10 Max 15 Chance of rain 80%: <1mm Wind: SW 24kph Betting: Collingwood $3.40 Geelong $1.32 |
LAST TIME:Collingwood 17.8 (110) def Geelong 10.19 (79), Round 16, 2012 at the MCG
WALKING WOUNDED: The Magpies will finally welcome back Luke Ball after over a year out with a knee injury but that news was tempered by confirmation that Dale Thomas will miss the next two matches after his troublesome right ankle flared up again and promising youngster Alex Fasolo is set to miss the rest of the season with a fractured navicular bone in his foot. Collingwood will also have to make to do without dashing defender Heath Shaw who is suspended while reigning best-and-fairest Dayne Beams (quad) is still at least a fortnight away, Tyson Goldsack (hip) is expected to sit out this week's clash at a minimum, Alan Toovey has been ruled out for the year as well with a knee injury and former Hawk Clint Young (hamstring) isn't expected to be available until Round 10 at the earliest. In some better news, Marty Clarke should be okay after suffering a corked thigh against Fremantle last week.
Star Geelong midfielder James Kelly will sit out the next two matches after unsuccessfully challenging his rough conduct charge against Essendon utility Brendon Goddard, while veteran Paul Chapman has been ruled out yet again due to his hamstring taking more time than expected to heal sufficiently. Taylor Hunt will miss 4-6 weeks due to a fractured his collarbone sustained against the Bombers, Travis Varcoe (shoulder) is still a few months away from full fitness while Jared Rivers, Daniel Menzel and Hamish McIntosh are all unavailable due to knee injuries.
FORM: The Magpies appear to have lost their mojo in recent weeks. They were blown off the park on Anzac Day by a rampant Essendon outfit and last week were overrun by a decimated Fremantle team that was missing Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands, Nat Fyfe, Stephen Hill and Kepler Bradley while Jon Griffin went down with a serious knee injury during the match. The most worrying aspect of both losses was the fact Collingwood were right in the contest at the start of the final quarter but on each occasion appeared to give up which is very unlike the Collingwood teams we have come to know in the last five years. Their ability to defend has also come under serious scrutiny. The Magpies earned a win over St Kilda in between those two losses, but even then they didn't kick clear of the lowly Saints until midway through the third quarter. Steele Sidebottom was Collingwood's best player last week with 33 possessions (16 contested), seven clearances and a goal.
There isn't a team in the competition travelling better than the mighty Cats at the moment. Geelong are purring (pun intended) right now as the only remaining undefeated team in the AFL. Chris Scott's men have a perfect seven wins from seven matches and they made a statement in their last match when they defeated previous holders of top spot Essendon by five goals. As usual, Geelong gave their opponent a 3-4 goal head start in the first half and then came charging over the top of the Bombers like a freight train with 11 of 12 goals at one stage to put the contest to bed. Steve Johnson was outstanding with 36 touches and six inside-50s in a performance which continued his stellar start to the season. The mercurial Cat has relished spending more time in the midfield, averaging 29 touches a match to date.
WE THINK: When taking Geelong's scintillating form into account, it's hard to mount a case for Collingwood in this one. But that's not a sleight on the Magpies, because right now it's difficult to see anyone stopping this blue-and-white juggernaut. The Cats appear unbeatable at the moment. They have shown in almost all of their wins this year that they can claim victory from pretty much any situation. When a side possesses that rare kind of confidence, it makes them a formidable force - especially against a team whose defensive frailties have been exposed for all to see in recent times and are struggling to play their best footy. Geelong's elite skill level, their ability to own the corridor and the fact they have one of best defensive sixes in the game means the Cats will be 8-0 for fourth time in five years. Geelong by 32 points.
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