Collingwood v West Coast
Saturday May 24, 4.40pmMCG Fox Footy 4.40pm Weather: Min 11 Max 17 Chance of rain 70%: 1- 5mm Wind: WNW 14kph Betting: Collingwood $1.30 West Coast $3.50 |
This match is important because only four points separates the two sides on the ladder, with Collingwood holding onto eighth place and West Coast in ninth. Given West Coast’s superior percentage, the winner of this match will have a top eight position, while the loser will drop outside the eight. For West Coast, a loss puts it potentially two games outside of the eight contention and it will be a tough job to get back.
After so much momentum heading into the bye in round eight, the Magpies were brought back to earth by Adelaide last week. The Magpies were sitting in fourth place at the beginning of round eight, but now risk slipping outside the eight altogether with a loss this round.
Collingwood has weathered the most difficult part of its draw for 2014, meaning it is an opportunity to really cement itself in the top eight, whilst also maintaining touch with the top four.
However, it will not be a cakewalk for the Magpies as their next two opponents are teams coming off a bye that will be fresh, while the following will be against an in-form Melbourne that always performs well on the Queen’s Birthday.
Collingwood needs to put last week’s loss behind it quickly to regather the momentum it built before the bye.
On the other hand, West Coast had its bye last round on the back of a 111-point thumping of Greater Western Sydney. Although confidence will be sky high following this win, there is a risk that West Coast has had two very soft weeks and may be overawed by a fierce Collingwood side looking for revenge.
The Magpies will also be fresh from a 10-day break following the Adelaide loss so should be fully fit for the encounter.
The Eagles have been a tough team to read this year, after smashing all the lowly ranked teams but getting soundly beaten by some finals-bound opponents. At four wins and four losses, I feel the Eagles may to take a bigger scalp, like Collingwood, to really be considered a genuine finals contender.
Recent History
The Magpies have won nine of the last 10 encounters between these two sides, the most recent being a 62 point thumping in round 22 last season.
In this match, it was youngster Josh Thomas who polled the three Brownlow votes with 35 possessions and a goal, while Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury polled the two and one votes respectively. Travis Cloke, Ben Reid and Quinten Lynch kicked nine goals between them, and Heritier Lumumba and Paul Seedsman were both prolific with 30 disposals each.
West Coast had a number of midfielders find plenty of the football with Chris Masten, Matthew Rosa, Scott Selwood and Matthew Priddis all picking up over 30 disposals. However, they were largely ineffective with the Eagles only managing five goals for the game.
The game has to be put in some perspective considering Collingwood were looking to secure a top eight finish, whilst West Coast was already out of finals contention. There is a lot more riding on the result this week.
At the Selection Table
It may be a difficult week for coach Nathan Buckley at the selection table. On the one hand, there are a number of VFL players pushing for selection after a 115 point thumping of Bendigo on the weekend. On the other hand, there were a number of senior players who disappointed against Adelaide.
Therefore, the question for Buckley is whether to make changes to the senior team following one poor performance, or whether to stick with the side that had won four games on the trot leading into the bye.
There is so much pressure for positions with Alex Fasolo, Paul Seedsman, Kyle Martin (rookie), Tim Broomhead, Nathan Brown, Taylor Adams, Ben Sinclair and Josh Thomas all contributing at VFL level last week.
Brown, in particular, seems the most likely in line for a recall, especially given his form against the Gold, while Alex Fasolo’s foot skills could prove a huge asset. Taylor Adams also had over 30 possessions in the win.
Turning attention onto West Coast, and it is a lot quieter on the selection front. The injury list only contains two players (Beau Waters and Blayne Wilson). The only real issue for the Eagles is replacing Mark LeCras who was suspended last week and is not due to return until round 11.
The names most likely to replace LeCras are Josh Hill, Patrick McGinnity or Will Schofield. Hill seems the most likely replacement, but their WAFL affiliate also had a bye last weekend so there was no chance to push for selection.
Focus on Collingwood
The most disappointing aspect of Collingwood’s loss last week was the fact that it was out-tackled and out-pressured. In some respects, the Crows beat Collingwood at its own game. Buckley will be seeking a return to the fanatical pressure and tackling which has been a hallmark of his side’s game so far this season.
However, the issues don’t stop there. Collingwood’s disposal efficiency and clearance statistics continue to be a real issue. Adelaide dominated stoppages last round and so many kicks missed targets all night. In fact, Collingwood is ranked 16th for clearances, which is amazing considering the strength of the midfield. There were also a number of easy dropped marks. The other issue for the Magpies is conversion in front of goal, only goaling with 41 per cent of their shots. This easily ranks the Pies as the most inaccurate side in the competition.
On paper, the Magpies have a far superior midfield to West Coast and will look to gain the ascendency through the middle. At its best, Collingwood is able to cover the aforementioned issues through its terrific pressure, which causes so many turnovers. The Magpies will also be hoping for a greater input from its tall forwards who have been quiet in recent weeks.
Player Focus
Travis Cloke – There has been a lot written about Travis Cloke this week after a quiet start to the year. The big power forward has only kicked nine goals from his eight outings this year, which is disappointing for a guy who nearly won the Coleman Medal last year. There is no doubt that the Collingwood midfield can assist Cloke by lifting its disposal efficiency and hitting him on the lead more often instead of dropping the ball at his feet. A few quick clearances will also help as it gives opponents less time to double team him. However, the biggest concern for Cloke has been the fact that he has also dropped a few easy chest marks. This indicates to me that he is just down on confidence. It only takes one goal or a clutch mark to turn that around and Travis will be back firing again. For me, he remains Collingwood’s most important player structurally, but he has a tough job against Darren Glass this week to try and regain his form.
Scott Pendlebury – Collingwood’s Rolls-Royce is just having a super consistent year. His influence was limited last week but he still managed 33 possessions and a goal. Twenty-four of these disposals were handballs, which indicated that he didn’t find the ball in space as much as the Magpies would’ve liked. Nonetheless, the skipper is averaging 29 disposals and a goal a game so far this year, as well as a whopping 6 tackles. I expect him to get the Scott Selwood tag on Saturday, but he should be good enough to work his way through it.
Brodie Grundy – Although Collingwood’s hitout statistics are not terrific, Grundy has done a marvellous job in just his second year at holding up the Collingwood ruck division in conjunction with Jarrod Witts. It is perhaps his biggest test yet this weekend, coming up against the might of Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui. Buckley flagged this week that Grundy will need rests throughout the course of the season given the fact he is so young to be shouldering such a workload. I thought Grundy was one player who could hold his head up after a disappointing result last week.
Focus on West Coast
West Coast has a very strong forward line and backline, but has perhaps struggled through the middle against the better sides this year. Like Collingwood, the Eagles have struggled in clearances this year, ranking 15th. This is a surprise considering the midfield gets such great service from its ruckman (West Coast are ranked fourth for hitouts).
As alluded to above, the Eagles need to be careful this week to start well. After such an easy win against the Giants followed by the week off, there is a real chance that the Magpies will come out firing and catch West Coast off guard.
West Coast’s midfield has been soundly beaten by the stronger sides. Therefore, if it can break even against Collingwood this week then it will have the fire power up forward to kick a winning score, and a solid enough backline to keep the out-of-form Collingwood talls to another frustrating week. The key to this for the Eagles may rest with the Cox/Naitanui combination which will be coming up against the very inexperienced combination of Grundy and Witts. The Eagles need to dominate the hitouts and clearances to put the pressure back on Collingwood’s defence.
Player Focus
Matt Priddis – In a side that has struggled around the stoppages, Priddis has often played a lone hand and is having a super consistent season. He averages 28 disposals a game and is also ranked sixth in the competition for contested ball. He is likely to square up against Luke Ball this week in what should be a really strong battle. Ball had a tough time around the stoppages last week so will no doubt be looking to bounce back, but he will have a tough job against Priddis who is in really good form.
Josh Kennedy – The Fred Flintstone run-up for goal may be gone in 2014, but Kennedy’s goal scoring power is still a cornerstone of West Coast’s game. He has not been held goalless at all in 2014, and is fresh from an amazing 11-goal haul against Greater Western Sydney. He had a 100 per cent conversion rate, not registering a behind all game. Given the fact that both sides have been inaccurate at times this year, Kennedy’s conversion could prove a difference if he can get on top of Jack Frost this weekend.
Shannon Hurn – Hurn has continued to struggle with injury in 2014, but has played the last two games and has looked very solid. I have always believed that Hurn is one of West Coast’s most important players in defence because he has the size to out-muscle an opponent, but his lethal kicking skills generate so much attack. I expect Goldsack to play a forward tag role on him this weekend as the Magpies cannot afford to let Hurn roam free across half back. Collingwood often deploys a forward zone, and Hurn’s ability to penetrate a zone could be a game-breaker.
The Wrap Up
This is definitely not a game the Magpies should be taking lightly as West Coast is a very powerful side on paper. However, I just think Collingwood’s class through the middle will be too much for the Eagles to handle and the Magpies will eventually pull away. That said, the Magpies need to convert better and also need to lift their rating around the stoppages.
Both sides have points to prove this weekend, and I’m expecting a pretty tight tussle with the Magpies’ pressure just a bit too much for the Eagles to handle.
Collingwood by 24 points.
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