Collingwood v St Kilda
Friday May 30, 7.50pmEtihad Fox Footy / 7mate 7.30pm Weather: Min 9 Max 19 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: ENE 13kph Betting: Collingwood $1.05 St Kilda $9.50 |
The Magpies won an enthralling battle against West Coast last week, which saw it, move into sixth position on the ladder.
The Saints, on the other hand, enjoyed the bye, which could not have come at a better time following four consecutive losses.
Nick Maxwell labelled last week’s win against West Coast as one of the greatest he had been a part of. This is quite a big statement from a man who has played in a number of blockbusters and finals.
The win was special because Collingwood lost Jack Frost and Nathan Brown early in the match and was forced to reshuffle its defence. West Coast’s forward line possesses really strong power forwards, so restricting scoring was going to be a real challenge after the injuries.
The backline’s job was not made any easier considering the Eagles were smashing Collingwood in the middle and had 66 inside 50s for the match.
It was a herculean effort from the likes of Alan Toovey, Tyson Goldsack and Maxwell who were forced to play on much taller opponents. It is the sort of win that can instil a lot of self-belief and confidence.
Turning the focus onto St Kilda, and new coach Alan Richardson would have used the bye to refocus his young side. Many football fans may not have tipped the Saints to reach any great heights in 2014, but they started the season really strongly by winning the first two games. Unfortunately for them, they have only won one more game since and now sit in 16th spot on the ladder.
At its best this year, St Kilda has looked to be a disciplined side that is hard to score against. Richardson has clearly put a lot of emphasis on defensive structures and ensuring each player knows his role in the team.
But when things go awry, St Kilda has been forced to rely on too few to step up. This is largely due to the team’s inexperience and the fact that a lot of younger players can struggle to string consecutive good games together. Nonetheless, the bye has given the team a chance to freshen up and I expect a much stronger effort from St Kilda this Friday night.
It is the second week in a row that the Magpies face a side fresh from the bye. The Pies also face a shorter six-day break from last week’s bruising encounter against West Coast. There is the risk that the side will come out slightly flat after such a big match last week, so it is essential that coach Nathan Buckley has his men in the right frame of mind.
Recent History
St Kilda has not beaten Collingwood since round three, 2010.
The last time these two sides played was round six last year where the Magpies won a scrappy encounter by 26 points. Scott Pendlebury polled the three votes with 28 disposals and two goals, Heritier Lumumba polled two votes for picking up 27 disposals and a goal and Dale Thomas was the leading disposal getter on the ground (34), which earned him the one vote. Travis Cloke had a dominant (albeit inaccurate) game, kicking four goals and five behinds, whilst Paul Seedsman also impressed with two goals.
For St Kilda, Nick Riewoldt threatened to singlehandedly get the Saints across the line by booting four goals and Leigh Montagna had a lazy 30 disposals.
At the Selection Table
Both sides have an interesting week at the selection table.
Starting with Collingwood, and Buckley will be forced to make at least one change to cover the injured Nathan Brown who will undergo season ending shoulder surgery. On a positive note, Lachlan Keeffe looks set to step straight into his shoes after he impressed at VFL last week. Jack Frost will also be forced to face a fitness test after receiving concussion in last week’s match.
Importantly, Collingwood’s VFL side continues to impress, with a number of players pushing for senior selection. The most prominent at the moment would be Patrick Karnezis who is yet to debut for Collingwood since moving over from Brisbane. He kicked six goals last week and could come in to help add to Collingwood’s forward mix.
Taylor Adams, Josh Thomas, Ben Kennedy, Sam Dwyer and Kyle Martin also continue to dominate through the middle, and you get the feeling young Tim Broomhead may also be on the cusp of selection.
Paul Seedsman injured his knee last week and didn’t play the final quarter, but has been declared fit. He is another who is on the comeback trail from injury and is closing in on a return.
The only real downside to the VFL team’s win last week was the fact that Ben Sinclair injured his hamstring and looks set for another stint on the sidelines.
Turning the focus onto St Kilda, and much of the focus will be on gritty midfielder David Armitage. He is a crucial player in the inexperienced St Kilda midfield but faces an uphill battle to prove his fitness after an extended stint on the sidelines with a knee laceration. If Armitage does not pass his fitness test, then Seb Ross may get his chance following several weeks of good form at VFL level.
The Saints have incurred a number of long-term injuries that have really hurt their season. James Gwilt will miss two weeks with a hamstring injury, while youngster Blake Acres will miss six with an ankle. Sam Fisher, Tom Hickey, Sam Gilbert, Eli Templeton, Nathan Wright and Jarryn Geary are all a number of weeks away from returning which is really testing the depth and leaving the defence exposed, in particular.
Focus on Collingwood
Despite the gutsy win last week, Nathan Buckley will remain focused on a number of key areas of his side’s game. In particular, the Magpies have been smashed around clearances over the past fortnight, and have conceded far too many inside 50s. It is a credit to the defence that Collingwood has still managed to keep its opposition to respectable scores, however it is an area Buckley will be looking to rectify as soon as possible.
Collingwood has a star-studded midfield, so it was concerning to see the Eagles get on top in this area considering West Coast is renowned for lacking depth through the middle. That said, the gun Collingwood midfielders did lift in the last quarter and ran out the game the better. It was also pleasing to see the Magpies kick accurately last week which has also been an area for concern all year (ranking last in the competition for conversion).
Player Focus
Alan Toovey – Toovey had a challenging game against Adelaide a fortnight ago but bounced back last week against West Coast. He held Jack Darling goalless and was a key part of an undersized defence. His tackling pressure was back at its best and he showed real leadership. I feel Toovey is getting better and fitter with every game he plays after missing most of 2013 following a knee reconstruction.
Tyson Goldsack – I thought Goldsack was one of the key players for Collingwood in the first half last week and a big reason why West Coast did not bounce out to a big half time lead. He played as a forward and his tackling pressure was immense. He dished off a number of goal assists, and caused numerous turnovers that directly led to goals. Considering the Magpies scored 70 per cent of its goals from turnovers last week, Goldsack was perhaps the most valuable player in the Collingwood forward line. Later in the game, he was forced into defence following the injuries of Brown and Frost. He was equally as strong in this role, minding the in-form Josh Kennedy who was fresh from an 11-goal onslaught the week prior. He managed to find a way to compete against Kennedy and did not concede any goals to him. Goldsack is an integral part of the Collingwood side with his versatility. I’m tipping him to start forward this week.
Jarryd Blair – If there was ever any doubt about Blair’s worth to the side, last week’s game dispelled that. He kicked three crucial goals in a forward line that just wasn’t functioning, and was Collingwood’s leading goal scorer for the match. He is not a high possession winner in his forward pocket position, but typically finds ways to influence a game. Last week’s match was crucial for Blair as he had only kicked three goals for the entire season leading into the game.
Focus on St Kilda
There was not much to like about St Kilda’s last month of football before the bye last round. The only positive was probably the fact that the Saints were getting smashed by Gold Coast in round nine but managed to work their way back into the game in the second half.
With such a young side, the Saints could ill-afford injuries to key players. Unfortunately, this is exactly what has happened, and it has really exposed the depth. Thankfully, Lenny Hayes and Leigh Montagna have been solid all season which has helped keep the Saints competitive through the middle. Nick Riewoldt is also having a strong season up forward.
Another positive for St Kilda has been the fact that so many young players have received their opportunities this season and have shown some positive signs. Last year’s recruiting decisions seem to be justified with Luke Dunstan, Jack Billings and Blake Acres all looking the goods, and Billy Longer has given his all in the ruck. There is undoubtedly a lot of promise there in a testing period for new coach Alan Richardson as a rookie coach, but the early signs are positive.
Player Focus
Nick Riewoldt – I wanted to focus on the younger players in this week’s preview, but it is hard to ignore the inspirational St Kilda skipper. He has kicked 24 goals so far this season and only six behinds, highlighting an improved accuracy in front of goal. He also averages just under nine marks per game, and his work rate is as strong as it has ever been. There’s talk that Riewoldt continues to struggle with his debilitating knee injuries, which further emphasises his bravery to keep performing at the level he does. Admittedly, his last month has not been as strong as his opening month of the season, but he has still kicked six goals in his last two games. He also has a super record against Collingwood, having kicked 35 goals from 18 games throughout his career.
Jack Billings – There was little doubt that St Kilda would snap up Billings with its third pick in last year’s National Draft. Billings has not disappointed either, already demonstrating so much class and poise beyond his years. He started the season on the back foot with pre-season injuries, which meant he didn’t get a proper run at it until round five at AFL level. He has already kicked seven goals from his last five games and is averaging a respectable 16 disposals as a forward flanker. He is definitely one to keep an eye on, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Collingwood throw Marley Williams the job to ensure he is kept quiet.
Jack Steven – Steven has perhaps become St Kilda’s most important player, but is yet another who has suffered injury issues which kept him out until round four. Since returning, he has gradually improved his fitness and now looks to be building back to his best after picking up 31 disposals in his last match against Gold Coast. I expect to see Brent Macaffer given the tagging job on Steven this week, for he is a match-winning midfielder due to the fact he breaks the lines and goes forward to kick goals. He needs to have a big one to ensure the Saints are on the march.
The Wrap-Up
It’s hard to go past the Pies in this one. As stated above, there is a risk that Collingwood will struggle to back up from a bruising encounter last week, and I also think the Saints will come out stronger after a bye last round. I also expect a fired up St Kilda side as it is a rare Friday night game for the club, and it also has more experience on Etihad Stadium than Collingwood so far this season.
The Pies are in pretty good form and should out-last the Saints. I expect a victory, despite a tough opening.
Pies by 36 points.
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