Collingwood v Carlton
Friday May 2, 7.50pmMCG Fox Footy / 7mate 7.30pm Weather: Min 11 Max 14 Chance of rain 90%: 10-20mm Wind: N 20kph Betting: Collingwood $1.26 Carlton $3.90 |
Somewhat surprisingly, the Magpies have moved into the top four following an epic win against Essendon on ANZAC Day last week. This is a huge achievement considering the quality of the opposition Collingwood has had to face, coupled with a few major injuries and a massive defeat at the hands of Fremantle in round one. It means Collingwood has a big opportunity to really cement itself in the top four heading into the bye round, with a real chance to take a deep breath and make a charge towards finals throughout the remainder of the season.
Carlton, on the other hand, has had a highly publicised difficult start to 2014. After plummeting to four consecutive losses, including an embarrassment at the hands of Melbourne, it seemed as if the year was over for the Blues before it even got started.
However, to Carlton’s credit, it has turned the season around with two important wins against Western Bulldogs and West Coast.
Mick Malthouse has released the shackles and the Blues have played with much more attacking flair over the past fortnight. The win last week against West Coast would have really injected some enthusiasm around the club after the Blues looked down and out midway through the final quarter before storming home with five unanswered goals to win a heart-stopper.
Malthouse and his men will be looking at this win to be the impetus to turn the fortunes around for the club in a season in which it celebrates its 150th birthday. Last week’s win will count for little if the Blues get rolled on Friday night.
These sides met twice in 2013, where the focus was squarely on the Mick Malthouse-Nathan Buckley rivalry. Although this discussion will remain prominent this week, much of the attention will be on former Collingwood hero Dale Thomas who will play against the Magpies for the first time since making the move to Carlton. Thomas will undoubtedly receive his share of jeers from the crowd, which will add an extra level of interest in this game.
The AFL’s biggest rivalry deserves only the best preview, so I have gone the extra mile this week.
Recent History
As alluded to above, these two sides met twice in 2013 where it was Nathan Buckley and his Magpies who took the spoils on both occasions.
The last meeting was in round 15 when the Magpies turned a disastrous first quarter into a thumping 41-point win. Dane Swan polled the three votes with 41 disposals and eight tackles, whilst Ben Reid made his mark as a forward with four crucial goals. The one vote went to Scott Pendlebury with 33 disposals. Travis Cloke also had a massive game with five goals, while Jarrod Witts also featured with two. For Carlton, Kane Lucas had 33 disposals and Chris Judd was prominent with 29 disposals.
The other meeting between these two sides was in round two where Jamie Elliott inspired a last quarter comeback to see the Magpies overrun the Blues by 17 points. Elliott had a breakout game with five goals and also polled the three Brownlow votes. Pendlebury was again prominent with 23 disposals and two goals, polling the two Brownlow votes, whilst Marc Murphy polled one vote with a 26-disposal game. Jeff Garlett and Chris Yarran threatened to take the game away from Magpies early with three goals each.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood has enjoyed two weeks where no changes were necessary. That looks likely to change this week with Alex Fasolo in serious doubt with a foot injury. Although Fasolo has been cleared of serious damage, I feel he is likely to sit out given he has an extra week’s recovery with the bye to come.
The most logical replacement for Fasolo seems to be Marley Williams. The question for Buckley is whether Williams is match-fit enough to return to the AFL after only playing three quarters in the VFL last week.
Also under an injury cloud is Clinton Young after he received a corked leg in a collision with Paul Chapman last week. The club has declared him available for the match.
The only other possible change for Buckley is whether to play an extra small instead of the three tall forwards if it rains.
In line for selection include Taylor Adams and Sam Dwyer, both who have had consecutive weeks featuring in the best at VFL level. Nathan Brown also continues his comeback from injury but I feel he will struggle to displace Jack Frost or Lachlan Keeffe.
Patrick Karnezis also kicked four goals in the VFL on the weekend in his second week back from injury, but will take more time to fully regain match fitness. Paul Seedsman and Tim Broomhead both returned to the VFL side last week for their first games of the year but are expected to play a few more games at this level before been considered for selection.
The other player continuing to impress at VFL level is Kyle Martin who kicked six goals on the weekend, but he will need to be promoted to the senior list before he can get a game.
Ben Reid remains a few more weeks away as does Ben Sinclair.
Turning the focus onto Carlton, and the only real concern will be on the availability of Chris Yarran who injured his hamstring in last week’s match against West Coast. Yarran was subbed as a precaution during the third quarter. This was a huge blow for the Blues as Yarran was having his best game for the season.
If he is unavailable, the Blues could turn to veteran Andrew Carrazzo who could be fit for selection, whilst players such as David Ellard, Patrick Cripps or Jaryd Cachia are also vying for selection. Chris Judd and Matthew Kreuzer remain on the injury list for Carlton and will be there for some time. Tom Bell and Ed Curnow will also be out of action for a few more weeks as well.
Key Matchups
Brent Macaffer v Marc Murphy – Nathan Buckley may consider tagging the in-form Bryce Gibbs, but it seems most likely Macaffer will tag the Carlton captain. Murphy was in scintillating form last week with 32 disposals, a goal and 11 tackles. He really responded to the questions placed on him by the media over his leadership and was Carlton’s best player on the day. Macaffer was tested last week by Jobe Watson but ultimately did a good job in restricting Watson to 19 disposals.
Jack Frost v Jarrad Waite – After getting dropped in round four, Waite has responded and was influential last week against West Coast with 20 disposals, 10 marks and two goals. The Carlton forward line looks much more dangerous now with Lachlan Henderson and Levi Casboult in support. Frost continues to grow as a player but will be tested this week by Waite. Frost is most likely to get this match-up as he has the agility to go with Waite.
Travis Cloke v Michael Jamison – Cloke’s form continues to fluctuate, but he played a valuable role for the Magpies on ANZAC Day last round despite not kicking a goal. Jamison usually takes this match-up and has had mixed success on Cloke in recent outings. With Henderson now playing forward, Jamison has extra responsibility to hold up the backline. He got valuable support last week from Sam Rowe who is showing promising signs as a defender.
Focus on Collingwood
Collingwood forgot to turn up in the first quarter last round and were totally overrun by the Bombers. It was not until the Pies were 37 points down that the side finally clicked into gear. However, when the team clicked, the result was devastating. The Magpies kicked 10 unanswered goals to totally blow the Bombers apart.
Collingwood’s ability to score was impressive, but it was its ability to limit the Bombers to only three goals after quarter time that was most pleasing. It was the second week in a row where the Magpies were able to couple attacking flair with real defensive pressure and good structures behind the ball. Collingwood’s forward pressure has also been intense over the past fortnight which is a large reason why the Magpies are winning games of football.
Collingwood’s last quarters have not been flash in 2014 and Essendon again took some ascendency. Fortunately, the Magpies ran out the game much better which was impressive considering they were one short on the bench.
In recent weeks I have raised concerns over Collingwood’s accuracy when kicking for goal. This continues to be an issue for the Magpies as they rank 17th in the AFL in this area. The other area of concern for Collingwood is clearance work. It ranks 16th in this area. Collingwood is scoring the majority of its goals through turnovers, so if it could begin to also lift its rating around the clearances then it will add a new dimension to the team. Collingwood’s stoppage work will be tested this round against Carlton who ranks fourth in the AFL for clearances.
Player Focus
Dane Swan – I tipped Swan last week to win the ANZAC Day Medal and he didn’t let me down. He played predominantly as a forward in the second half and really lifted kicking four crucial goals in a low scoring match. He also managed 27 disposals. Swan has a good record against Carlton and will be looking for another big game on the big stage this Friday night.
Tom Langdon – Langdon has been a real surprise packet for Collingwood this year in defence. I thought he was terrific in the last quarter against Essendon and he really stood up on a number of occasions when it counted. He also ran hard and was impressive rebounding off defensive 50. With so many injuries down back, Langdon has taken his chance and is going to prove very difficult to displace once some more fancied names return from injury.
Brodie Grundy – Grundy had a terrific battle against the more experienced Paddy Ryder last round and more than held his own with Witts playing valuable support. What pleased me most about Grundy’s game was the big mark he took late in the game and the fact he went back and kicked a goal from outside 50. It has been a part of his game which has been lacking so far this year. If he can begin taking contested marks and kicking goals, he will become the complete package.
Luke Ball – I thought he was instrumental in the second quarter when it looked as if the Bombers were going to run away with the game. He stood up and put his head over the ball, winning first possession and running hard to make the next contest. Some argue the modern game and limited rotations do not suit Luke Ball’s style of game, but there is no substitute for guts and determination and Ball is still a vital component of the Collingwood midfield.
Steele Sidebottom – I thought Sidebottom was very unlucky not to win the ANZAC Day Medal with 26 disposals and three goals. His second quarter was inspirational and it was the hardest I’ve seen him work. He kicked all three of his goals in that second quarter and he was the key component in Collingwood’s resurgence. With Collingwood’s midfield at full strength, Sidebottom is slipping under the radar of opposition coaches and has put together a terrific month of football.
Focus on Carlton
In the first month of football, Carlton had absolutely no run and was lacking fitness. The ball movement was stagnant and the Blues were far too easy to score against. Confidence was at an all-time low. However, Mick Malthouse has obviously said to his players to take the game on and just play on instincts.
At stages last week, Carlton looked unstoppable. The run and carry was lightning quick, and the forward line looked dangerous with the three talls in Waite, Henderson and Casboult. The move of Sam Rowe into defence has been important because it has allowed Henderson to be a permanent forward which is what the Blues want.
The only issue for Carlton is that it is unable to sustain the intensity for long periods. Last week, the Blues were starting quarters on fire, but were eventually getting overrun by the fitter West Coast outfit. This became a real pattern throughout the game and West Coast was scoring the majority of its goals in red-time. Malthouse has conceded that his team is not 100 per cent fit after a huge chunk of the list had restricted pre-seasons. Nonetheless, it was a remarkable effort for the Blues to come back from 24 points down to claim the points. For a team that looked dead on its feet, Carlton played on pure emotion and momentum and came from no-where to win. With every week that goes by, the Carlton players get fitter.
Essendon showed last week that Collingwood remains susceptible to quick ball movement. Therefore, Carlton can worry the Magpies if it plays in the same manor it did against West Coast last round. Carlton is a good stoppage side so it needs to again excel in this area as Collingwood has struggled to win clearances of late.
Player Focus
Bryce Gibbs – Bryce’s form over the past fortnight has been a key reason why the Blues have returned to the winners list. His run and carry has returned, but importantly his defensive pressure has also been high. He recorded 11 tackles last week which is an indication that Gibbs is working hard on his defensive game. Although he is not as high a possession winner as his skipper Marc Murphy, Gibbs is extremely damaging and needs to be monitored on Friday night.
Jeff Garlett – Along with Waite, Garlett was demoted to the VFL in round four after a poor start to the season. Last round, Garlett returned to the senior side and bounced back to form with three crucial goals. His confidence should be high after this game. He always performs well against Collingwood so could be a real game-breaker this week.
Robert Warnock – Warnock may have had a few moments this year that he would rather forget, but his ruck work is always of a high standard and is a large reason why Carlton is ranked so high for clearances. With Kreuzer out injured, Warnock is a very important player for Carlton and will be vital this round again coming up against Collingwood’s inexperienced ruck combination.
Dylan Buckley – Buckley has been one of the shining lights for Carlton this year, and had a career best game last round against West Coast. He is one of the few Carlton players who have consistently backed themselves to take the game on. He has lightning speed and a lot of heart to go with it as well. He has added real spark and life to a Carlton outfit that looked devoid of spirit at stages early in the season. His celebration last round following his important final quarter goal really lifted his side.
Sam Rowe – I have mentioned numerous times throughout this preview that Rowe is now playing in defence. This role cannot be understated as it allows Henderson to play as a pure forward. In my opinion, Henderson needs to play forward for Carlton to be successful, but he leaves a gaping hole in defence. If Rowe can hold up in this position, it solves a huge structural problem for Malthouse and makes the team look so much better. He is likely to get the match-up on Jesse White this round who has been in solid form for the Magpies.
The Wrap Up
Collingwood will rightfully go into this game as favourites given its consistent form against good sides. However, if Carlton play in the same manor it did against West Coast last round, there is no doubt the Blues can trouble the Magpies on Friday night.
The question mark hanging over Carlton is whether it can sustain its intensity for long enough to put Collingwood away.
Rain may also be a factor this Friday night as the forecast looks gloomy at this stage. This may force both sides to make some changes to its line-up considering both teams are opting for three tall forwards. I think the rain would ultimately suit Collingwood, but it could benefit Carlton considering the Blues have been superior in clearances so far this year.
Two weeks ago, I didn’t think this game would’ve been a danger one for the Magpies. But a fortnight down the track, Carlton has a lot more confidence and usually lifts against Collingwood.
Pies by 15 points
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