Collingwood: An Analysis

REAL FOOTY - Matthew Lloyd

Collingwood v Adelaide Sunday July 27, 4.40pm MCG Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 8 Max 16 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: NNW 27kph Betting: Collingwood $1.91 Adelaide $1.91

Collingwood has been in freefall ever since its round 13 defeat to the Western Bulldogs on June 15. What’s even more intriguing about the dramatic fall is that the Magpies were flying at the completion of round 12, with most scribes content with the fact that they had the capabilities and credentials of being a top-four contender.
Nathan Buckley has had two weeks to pick up the pieces of what was a train wreck of a performance against the Bombers, and a loss to the Adelaide Crows today will more than likely destroy the Magpies' aspirations to make an impact in the finals.
Just where has it all gone wrong for Collingwood? Unfortunately, for those who love the Black and White, it’s a case of where do you start.
When you’re in a rut like the Magpies are, the first non-negotiable that must be addressed is your attitude and your effort.
Collingwood lacks cohesion and confidence in its game and you don’t get that back without a total commitment to the cause and maximum effort. These two aspects were non-existent from the first bounce in the disaster against Essendon. Insipid is a strong word to use about any football team, but that’s exactly what that effort was.
You can’t hide from some of the statistics in that game. Buckley's Pies had 20 less contested possessions, betraying a lack of competitiveness, while 63 fewer uncontested possessions and 58 fewer uncontested marks than Essendon showed not only a lack of work rate but also a lack of care for one another.
The AFL is is a brutal industry, every player who has been around long enough will have experienced games where everything you do or try just doesn’t work, but for over a month Collingwood has been performing like a bottom-four club in all the key areas that win you games of football.
As much as I like to think that forwards win you games of football, the first ingredient to success is a strong defence all over the ground and then a midfield that bats far deeper than the opposition. Collingwood won a premiership in 2010 with that formula and it is what has Sydney on top of the ladder now. It certainly helps to have Buddy Franklin up forward, but the key to the Swans is the best defensive unit in the competition.
Defenders Lachlan Keeffe, Jack Frost, Tom Langdon, Paul Seedsman and Marley Williams are young and they did great work for Collingwood in the first 12 rounds, so it is understandable that there would be a drop-off in their output as the season ground on towards finals. The injuries and now retirement of Nick Maxwell has hurt Collingwood because he was their backbone earlier in the season, but the young defenders have been let down by its experienced midfield.
Aside from the skipper Scott Pendlebury who has been a consistent performer, Dane Swan, Dayne Beams, Jarryd Blair, Brent Macaffer and Steele Sidebottom have all been disappointing during this lean period. Sidebottom’s undisciplined act where he got suspended for three weeks hurt Collingwood, as has playing Dane Swan injured, but as a group, they are getting badly beaten at the coalface. The Pies dropped from fourth in the AFL over the first 12 rounds for contested possession to 15th through rounds 13 to 17. As a result, scoring from clearances has also dried up with only St Kilda and Melbourne scoring less in the last five rounds.
Ben Reid and Jamie Elliott could not have come back at a better time. The loss of Elliott to a hamstring injury over the last few weeks has been a big blow because he provides an exuberance and diversity to the Collingwood forward line that they just don’t have without him. Ben Reid may not be as match fit going into today’s game as he would like but Travis Cloke plays much better with a secondary option in the forward line. After a solid start to the season, Jesse White has contributed just four goals in his last eight games and none in the last month so the opposition can now put all their energies into double-teaming Cloke, which is what they are doing.
I’d love to see Travis Cloke go back to centre half-forward where he can use his endurance to become less predictable to the opposition as he gets caught wrestling too much at full forward. This would allow for Ben Reid and Jamie Elliott to play deeper and it suddenly becomes a much livelier forward line which Nathan Buckley hasn’t had at his disposal.
Jamie Elliott spoke during the week of how the Magpies are preparing for this match like it’s a final and that’s how they are intending to attack the early stages of today’s first quarter. The Adelaide Crows who have been in better form of late would be thinking exactly the same thing as a loss for them will probably draw curtains on their season as they would find themselves two games out of the eight. If Adelaide wins, its draw looks pretty comfortable in the run home and the Crows would most likely take Collingwood and the Gold Coast's position in eighth spot come the end of the year.
There would have been plenty of soul-searching going on at Collingwood over the last few weeks, yet for all that, the actions of the 22 who represent the famous old club today will give us the clearest picture as to whether there is any life left in the 2014 Magpies.