Preview Round 16: Collingwood v Gold Coast

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Collingwood v Gold Coast Saturday July 5, 4.40pm Metricon Stadium Fox Footy 4.30pm Weather: Min 13 Max 22 Chance of rain 20%: < 1mm Wind: WNW 19kph Betting: Collingwood $1.70 Gold Coast $2.15

Collingwood and the Gold Coast, it promises to be a great clash as the Suns welcome the Magpies to Metricon Stadium on Saturday evening. The most recent matchup between the two last year saw the Magpies head north to the Suns home ground and start the only regular season meeting that year as very short favourites. What followed was a master class from Gary Ablett Jnr. and a win that would launch the Suns into as side that was tough to play against at Metricon Stadium, their home ground. This weekend they’ll meet again on the Gold Coast and for the first time in a meeting between these two, a spot in the finals way well be on the line. The Suns sit in 8th position, looking to secure a finals berth for the first time in their short history, while Collingwood sit in 6th, just one win ahead of the improving Gold Coast outfit. The Suns have looked to make Metricon Stadium a fortress this year and they have done just that with their only 2 home losses coming against Sydney and Hawthorn. It’s crucial game for both teams finals hopes, that’s for sure.

COLLINGWOOD PREVIEW
Collingwood may find themselves in 6th position and within striking distance of the top four but if their recent form is anything to go by just making the finals is going to be a chore now. Back to back losses to the Bulldogs and Hawks left the Pies just hanging in the final 8 and although they found some form in defeating old foe Carlton on Sunday night no one would say it was an impressive performance. If there was one really positive on the night it was the performance of youngster Ben Kennedy who came on as the sub just after half time and gathered 16 disposals in a polished performance. The major problem all year for the Pies has been injuries, with the current Collingwood injury list longer than any other in the AFL. Yet again on Sunday the curse hit again, with in form small forward Jamie Elliott going down with a hamstring injury that will force him out of the game against the Suns at the very least. Elliott has been one of the few Magpies who have performed consistently in 2014 so he will be missed, especially as the Pies forward line is about as dysfunctional as it gets.
Travis Cloke has found form and his goal kicking is at an all time high accuracy wise, but outside of him and Elliott there are no regular avenues to goal for the Pies. In a perfect world coach Nathan Buckley would want names like Reid, Grundy, Karnezis, Fasolo, Elliott and Freeman all in his thoughts for the forwards yet only Grundy will be available for selection this week. It’s a conundrum that may be solved through the upgrade of rookie listed small forward Kyle Martin, who continues to impress at VFL level yet hasn’t been given a chance at senior level so far in 2014. He played well in the corresponding game on the Gold Coast last year so if he’s ever going to be promoted and selected it’s this weekend. Also in contention to return this week are Tom Langdon (concussion), Nick Maxwell (calf) and Marley Williams who rolled his ankle at training last week and subsequently missed the game versus Carlton. The Pies need to win this game if they are to be even an outside chance of making the top 4, while a loss will leave them fighting for a spot in the bottom of the final 8, it’s just that important.

OPPOSITION ANALYSIS
Coming into the 2014 AFL season very few gave the Gold Coast Suns a realistic chance of playing finals, yet after 14 games the Suns find that finals football is within their reach for the first time. They’ve mainly put themselves in contention by making Metricon Stadium a very hard place to play football, and with a 5 win and 2 loss record at home this year the Suns may well ride into the finals based on home form alone. It hasn’t all been pretty for the Suns recently though with a heavy loss to the Hawks last week in Tasmania putting a dent in both their confidence and their percentage. The y return home though to host the Magpies and they’ll be confident of a much better performance than the one they put up last weekend.
The Suns midfield is their strength, it’s stacked with top players both young and experienced, and of course have the luxury of having the best player in the AFL, Gary Ablett Jnr. as both their captain and midfield leader. This season though Ablett hasn’t had to do it all himself as some of the young stars have developed their game to a higher level. The likes of Bennell, O’Meara, Swallow and Prestia have all gone to that next level and are averaging well clear of 20 possessions a game each. If you want to know how good this midfield is the AFL rankings show it clearly, with the Suns leading the league for contested possessions and clearances. This week they run into a Collingwood midfield that is struggling a little bit, and it’s rankings are well down in most of the key midfield categories at the moment. This may well be where the game is won or lost because if the Suns can get on top here it will be hard for the Pies to win on the road. If there’s one weakness in this area for both teams it’s the ruck though, with the two sides ranked last and second last for overall hitouts.
The Gold Coast forward line is a work in progress but so far this season there has been signs of improvement. Yes the forward line gets great service from a talented midfield but when you have 5 players averaging close to 2 goals a game or better you have the potential to be a very potent scoring side. The two main talls are having good seasons too with Charlie Dixon (19 goals) and Tom Lynch (29 goals) forming a partnership that is beginning to provide a target for the Suns midfield going forward. The Magpie defence that the Suns find themselves up against this week is also considerably weakened with Maxwell and Brown missing and doubt over Marley Williams. The Suns will believe that if they can get it inside forward 50 enough that they should be able to put a winning score on the board.
If the Suns have an apparent weakness it would be their backline, and with star recruit Nathan Bock still not fit enough to take his place in the team it’s left the load to a young and inexperienced group, not unlike the Pies backline. The 2 mainstays in defense are Steven May and Rory Thompson, and while they have struggled in some games they seem to perform much better at home, just like the rest of their team. What the Suns do have is plenty of run and drive out of the backline though with Harbrow, Broughton, Kolodjashij, Shaw and McKenzie all providing run and carry off half back. The Magpies pride themselves on being able to hold the ball inside their forward 50 and that in itself will be a battle that will have a large impact on the final result here. The Suns won’t be facing the Pies forward line at full strength though with Reid, Karnezis, Elliott, Fasolo and Freeman all missing this weekend.
The Suns have a lot of young talent but what that talent is starting to do is developing into a team around the experienced players they do have. They have made their home ground a very tough place to win on and facing a depleted Magpies outfit this weekend they will consider themselves a great chance of holding on to a spot in the 8 for one more week at least.

TIP
There is little doubt that this is one of the toughest asks in football now, heading to the Gold Coast to play the Suns in what is basically a night game (4.40pm start). The Magpies are also heading north without their best form behind them and with several big name players not able to travel due to injury. The Suns form has been inconsistent too though but at home it’s been strong so for Collingwood to win this game they’ll have to do absolutely everything right.
If the Magpies can bring their manic tackling pressure and attack on the ball they can win this game and keep their slim top 4 hopes alive.
PIES BY 6 POINTS.