Collingwood v Essendon
Sunday July 13, 3.20pmMCG Fox Sports 3.00pm Weather: Min 6 Max 13 Chance of rain 40%: < 1mm Wind: WSW 21kph Betting: Collingwood $1.52 Essendon $2.55 |
Only one game separates these two teams on the ladder, and therefore a top eight position is still well and truly up for grabs.
Collingwood was fighting for a top four position only a few weeks ago, but has only managed one win from its previous four games. All of a sudden, Collingwood’s top eight aspirations are also now in jeopardy considering its draw in the final seven rounds of the season is much more difficult than that of its nearest challengers.
Essendon, on the other hand, looked dead and buried but has resurrected its season following a gutsy victory over ladder leader Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval last weekend. It means the top eight is now a realistic target for the Bombers, and a win this weekend may see them sneak in after 17 rounds.
Collingwood has had a difficult week in the media following its disappointing loss to Gold Coast. Although Gold Coast is an impressive side, the Suns had no rotations in the last quarter yet still managed to outrun the Magpies. Collingwood had chances throughout the match to win the game, but failed to take opportunities and its skill level was deplorable.
The Magpies will be happy to be back at the MCG. A win this weekend has the potential to give them a two game buffer in the top eight, which should be enough to secure their spot. A loss, though, will leave Collingwood hanging in the top eight only on percentage.
Essendon has had another difficult season off the field with the spotlight on the ASADA investigation often placing enormous pressure and scrutiny onto the on-field performance. The absence of skipper Jobe Watson has made life even more difficult, but it seems as if the Bombers have regained some stability and confidence. In the absence of Watson, players such as Brendon Goddard, Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis have stood up and taken over leadership roles.
Both sides have had difficulties kicking winning scores in recent weeks, with both teams also struggling to cement a consistent forward structure. It means this game may well be about the side that is able to make the most of its opportunities and can get the greater input from its midfielders in relation to kicking goals.
Recent History
It only feels like yesterday when these sides last met in the round six ANZAC Day blockbuster. Following six unanswered goals by the Bombers to start the match, the Magpies hit back strongly in the second quarter to level the game by half time. A six goal to two second half meant Collingwood won by a convincing 23 points in the end.
Dane Swan continued his amazing run against Essendon, winning the ANZAC Day Medal with four goals and 26 disposals. Dayne Beams and Scott Pendlebury each also had over 30 disposals, while Steele Sidebottom’s three goals in the second quarter turned the game on its head.
For Essendon, Dyson Heppell played a really gutsy game, picking up 33 disposals and 11 tackles, and Brent Stanton contributed with 32 of his own.
Collingwood has won nine of its past 10 games against Essendon.
At the Selection Table
Collingwood looks likely to be without its most dangerous small forward Jamie Elliott for the second week running as he recovers from a hamstring complaint. Elliott is Collingwood’s second highest goal scorer with 30 goals and his absence puts further strain on Collingwood’s forward line. Sam Dwyer also faces a fitness test following a groin complaint.
In better news, Luke Ball and Nick Maxwell are considered potential returnees this week. Maxwell played in the VFL last weekend and will be a vital addition to the struggling backline. Jesse White may also come into contention again after a solid outing at VFL level.
The news was not so good for Ben Reid though who was only able to play one half at VFL level after sustaining a corked calf. He is likely to play again in the VFL this week to build up his match fitness. Patrick Karnezis was very good in the VFL last week in booting four goals and Tim Broomhead continued his good form with 26 disposals.
Essendon also has a few decisions to make at the selection table, with the main concern being the need to find a replacement for the suspended Brendon Goddard. The reigning best-and-fairest winner is a huge loss considering captain Watson remains on the sidelines. In many regards, the Bombers will be without their two best players and leaders.
The blow may be lessened if Michael Hibberd is available to return after he missed last match with an ankle injury. There is plenty of depth for Essendon to call upon, with Dustin Fletcher available to play, as well as players such as Tom Bellchambers and Cory Dell'olio. But for mine, it is difficult to see the Bombers making too many changes following the big win last weekend.
Focus on Collingwood
There are a lot of concerns for Nathan Buckley to address following the Gold Coast loss, but seemingly the greatest is finding a workable forward structure. Travis Cloke is in good form but is getting little assistance. Jesse White was omitted, leaving Brodie Grundy to step in to play the back-up role. He was unable to hit the scoreboard, while other forwards such as Tyson Goldsack and Jarryd Blair also had little impact on the scoreboard. Without Jamie Elliott, there just isn’t enough goal scoring power up forward, which may see Buckley roll the dice with Karnezis this week.
It will also be interesting to see how senior players respond to last week’s loss considering the likes of Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan were only able to manage 3 disposals each in the all-important final quarter.
Player Focus
Ben Kennedy – With the senior players struggling to find the ball, it was left to youngster Ben Kennedy to spark the side. His two last quarter goals were the impetus for a late surge that nearly saw the Magpies scrape over the line. It was Kennedy’s first full game of the year as he has been handed the substitute’s vest in all his other appearances. I get the impression that we are not going to be seeing much more of Kennedy in the substitute vest from hereon in. With the absence of players such as Elliott and Alex Fasolo, Kennedy will be a crucial player up forward this weekend and needs to chip in with a few goals.
Clinton Young – Young started last week’s match on fire, kicking two first quarter goals and getting the Magpies off to the dream start. It then all unravelled from there with Young missing three gettable goals by his standards and also dropping a mark 30 metres out in the dying minutes of the game. If he had taken that mark and converted the goal, the Magpies may have won. Young will have had a tough week following the missed mark, but he is not to blame for the loss considering a number of senior Magpies also made some blunders throughout the match. Expect Young to really fire up this weekend and make amends. His form has been good this season, and he has really added zip to the Collingwood side throughout the year.
Dane Swan – Swan has had an inconsistent season, but is facing his favourite side this weekend. He won the ANZAC Day Medal in round six and has averaged 34 disposals in his previous five encounters against the Bombers. Swan needs to hit the scoreboard this week in the absence of key forward line figures. He has only kicked 10 goals for the year (four of which came against Essendon when these sides last met), which is down on his usual output. In the run home to finals, this is a chance for Swan to regain form.
Focus on Essendon
Like Collingwood, Essendon has also struggled to find a forward line that works so far in season 2014. In its previous five games, Essendon has only averaged 80 points per game compared to Collingwood, who averages 87. A huge responsibility has been placed on the shoulders of young Joe Daniher, while Jake Carlisle has looked far more comfortable as a defender than a forward.
Despite this, the Bombers have added zip to the side with the likes of Zac and Jackson Merrett, Travis Colyer, Jason Winderlich and Courtney Dempsey. This pace is going to be a lot for the Magpies to handle. But in the absence of Watson and Goddard, the Magpies will fancy their chances of winning the contested football and therefore depriving the Bombers of outside run. The Bombers are the number one kicking side in the AFL, but are ranked second last when it comes to accuracy in front of goals (with Collingwood the only side ranked below it in this category this year).
Player Focus
Dyson Heppell – Heppell is just a terrific young leader who runs all day and knows how to find the football. He has really lifted in the absence of his skipper Jobe Watson and has all the makings of a future captain. He found life difficult last week with the Kane Cornes tag, only managing 17 disposals, which is down on his season average of 28. Nonetheless, he still managed to kick a crucial goal in the last quarter. He just finds ways to influence games. He is the most likely candidate to take the Brent Macaffer tag this weekend and how he works through that will define the midfield battle between these two sides.
David Zaharakis – The other player who has lifted for the Essendon is Collingwood’s nemesis, David Zaharakis. After a slow start to the year, he has hit a rich vein of form, picking up 30-plus disposals in five out of his last seven games. He has also kicked 10 goals for the year and has a real habit of scoring in the crucial moments of the game. He is the other candidate for the Macaffer tag this weekend.
Jason Winderlich – One player who always troubles the Magpies is Winderlich. He often plays on the loose defender such as Nick Maxwell and uses his pace to become an attacking weapon. He has struggled to play consistent footy due to injury this year, but is the sort of player who doesn’t need much match practice to have an impact. He had 24 disposals last week against Port Adelaide, and kicked two important goals against Adelaide in round 14. He also averages just over a goal a game so far this year, underlining his importance to a struggling Essendon attack.
The Wrap Up
Although Essendon’s form was very good last week, the loss of Brendon Goddard will be tough to manage. Collingwood has its own issues all over the field, but must consider that it has the midfield depth to really worry the Bombers this week.
The Magpies will feel that if they can shut down Heppell and Goddard, the Dons won’t have enough depth to run with the likes of Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Beams, Sidebottom, Kennedy, Adams, Thomas, Young and Lumumba.
On the other hand, the Magpies have struggled against raw pace, and the Bombers have their own speedsters and outside run.
The other area Essendon can hurt Collingwood is its kicking game. Collingwood struggled to stifle Hawthorn’s kicking game three rounds ago.
Therefore, if Collingwood is to win, it needs to get first hands on the footy and convert its opportunities. It can’t allow Essendon to win the ball back from defence or turn it over as was the case last week. Essendon can match Collingwood’s outside run, but will struggle to match it in the clearances, you would think. Travis Cloke usually plays well against Essendon and needs to have his kicking boots on again.
After a big week, it will be interesting to see how the Magpies respond to the scrutiny and the pressure of now having to fight for a top eight position once more. I expect a fiery response.
Collingwood by 18 points.
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